Japan: New government, New China Policy?

26 Sep 2008

With Taro Aso taking office in Tokyo, the question arises how this will affect China-Japan relations. The new Japanese prime minister is expected to call a snap election this fall, which might deprive him and his Liberal Democratic Party of power altogether.

Taro Aso has tried hard recently to alter his image of being a foreign policy hawk. "So, is Taro Aso a hawk?" he asked rhetorically at a external pagegathering of foreign correspondents. "If by someone calling 'hawkish' you mean that he is determined to willingly sacrifice his life to defend the role, peace and stability, and the national interest of Japan, yes, I am hawk."

At an earlier occasion, he reminded journalists that he was the first Japanese foreign minister who said openly that he would welcome the rise of China.

However, Aso will not have much time to demonstrate that he is a conciliatory foreign policymaker, as he succeeds Yasuo Fukuda as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) president. His first priority as Japanese prime minister will be to focus on an economic stimulus package aimed at reviving the Japanese economy.

More importantly, he is also expected to call a snap election possibly for as early as October, an election that the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has vigorously sought for more than a year. Thus, rather than being the end, the selection of Taro Aso as the new prime minister marks the beginning of a new stage in the struggle for government power among the LDP, the DPJ and both parties' allies.

Continuation of Japan’s China policy

This analysis examines the impact of this latest change of government in Japan on the country’s China policy. How, if at all, will the policy change under the Aso administration? And how would it change if the DPJ and its leader Ichiro Ozawa won the upcoming general elections?

Based on policy statements, party manifestos, papers published by the ministries of defense and foreign affairs and recent developments in China-Japan bilateral relations, this article assesses short- and medium-term developments in China-Japan relations as shaped by Japanese policymakers.

The conclusion is encouraging. Unless some unpredicted incident strains relations, Japan will continue its policy of improving bilateral ties with China - initiated by the government of Shinzo Abe in 2006 and continued by Yasuo Fukuda in 2007 and 2008 - regardless of whether the LDP stays in power or the DPJ takes over.

Not so hawkish

Aso’s election as prime minister has raised concern due to his reputation for having a loose tongue. As foreign minister in 2005, Aso stated that China was "a neighbor with one billion people equipped with nuclear bombs and has expanded its military outlays by double digits for 17 years in a row, and it is unclear as to what this is being used for. It is beginning to be a considerable threat."

The statement was immediately deemed groundless and irresponsible by the Chinese government. However, Aso’s words reflected a concern about China’s opaque military build-up shared by many lawmakers in Tokyo. Due to his frankness not always being perceived as constructive, he has promised that as prime minister he would watch his words and behave more diplomatically.

Aso believes in the importance of good relations between China and Japan. As foreign minister in the Abe administration, he was instrumental in re-introducing high-level meetings between the two governments after relations were damaged by former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi's controversial visits to the Yasukuni war shrine. Chinese President Hu Jintao's May 2008 visit to Japan and the agreement over the joint exploitation of gas resources in the South China Sea, among others, were initiated when Aso was foreign minister.

However, the new prime minister is not naive about relations with China. At the gathering of foreign correspondents, he warned that there will be problems ahead. In order to address these problems, he would have to continue the path of his two predecessors, improving diplomatic relations with Beijing and finding pragmatic solutions to shared problems. A blueprint of next steps is provided in the external pagepolicy recommendations by the influential Japan Forum on International Relations, which were also reflected in Abe’s China policy.

Even if Aso manages to soften his rhetoric, he remains a patriot with nationalist traits who is proud of Japan and wants his country to play an important role in Asia and the world. But patriotic views need not have a negative effect on China-Japan relations, as was shown by the conservative Abe.

China not a priority

Unlike Abe, who traveled to Beijing immediately upon taking office and thus broke the ice in the relationship with China, Taro Aso will not have much time to dedicate himself to the issue. With a looming recession in Japan, his main concern will be the economic situation, which he plans to improve with a fiscal stimulus package.

In addition, campaigning for the upcoming general elections has started, at least unofficially, as can be read from recent addresses by Aso as well as his contender, Ozawa. The main issues in the election will be of the domestic kind, such as income inequality and social security.

In the meantime, it will be the ministries, especially the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which will silently work on the country's China policy. They will most probably stay on the course set by the previous administrations. This means that Japan will continue to contribute to the creation of a "mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests", according to the official declaration in the external pageDiplomatic Bluebook 2008. Also high-level meetings between the two countries can be expected to continue.

The question remains what will happen to China-Japan relations if Ozawa and his DPJ win the elections. Given the latest opinion polls, this scenario is not very probable but still worthy of consideration.

The opposition’s conforming China policy

Ichiro Ozawa speaks during a news conference.

Like Aso, the opposition leader cannot be regarded as a foreign policy dove. It was Ozawa, a former member of the LDP himself, who started the discussion about Japan becoming a "normal nation," meaning a nation with military capabilities corresponding to its economic power; a nation which does not hesitate to use its military in the service of the UN. Ozawa’s book "A Blueprint for a New Japan," in which he argues for Japan to play an active role in international security affairs, became a bestseller.

Whereas Aso can be said to see Japanese foreign and security policy to narrowly serve a national interest, Ozawa can be called an internationalist who advocates an active foreign and security policy on behalf of the international community.

When it comes to Japan’s policy toward China, however, Ozawa’s views do not seem to be far from Aso's. The DPJ’s 2007 election external pagemanifesto, which is expected to be adapted for the upcoming elections, states: "The Democratic Party of Japan will make the greatest possible effort to develop relations of mutual trust with China […] and to strengthen the bonds of solidarity with Asian countries."

One could say that the opposition’s term "mutual trust" goes further in improving China-Japan relations than the government’s "mutually beneficial relationship," which could be considered strategic and calculating.

In contrast to other foreign policy fields in which the DPJ vigorously opposes the ruling coalition’s policies, there seems to be agreement between the governing and opposition parties regarding recent China policies: The DPJ welcomed the agreement on the joint exploitation of gas resources between China and Japan reached earlier this year and called for a continuation of the path chosen by the ruling LDP.

In conclusion, if Ozawa wins the expected general elections or if Aso remains in office, Japan’s China policy would probably stay the present course, with relations between the two countries likely to improve if they depend solely on political leaders in Japan.

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