Project on National Security Reform: Vision Working Group Report and Scenarios

2020

Scenario 1: Red Death

Dr. Meishan Prosper, MD, ScD, pulled into the driveway of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta, still puzzling over the last meeting of the Bio­terror Interagency Team. An al Qaeda splinter group was trying its hardest to infect world leaders with homemade biological agents using locally infected diplomats as carriers. They kept trying despite the seeming futility of such efforts.

Three attempts had been made in the last 6 months resulting only in the deaths of some low-level Iranian and Syrian diplomats who had not been treated in time. These officials had become the unwitting pawns in a deadly global game of move—countermove. Ap­parently, the terrorists hadn’t gotten the word that U.S. and allied officials were now protected by several layers of sophisticated sensing and detection devices developed by private industry and Argonne National Laboratory, so small as to be hardly noticeable. The very fabric of the President’s and his advisers’ clothes was treated to both detect and destroy airborne and contact pathogens.

The air at the White House, State Department, United Nations (UN), and other diplomatic meeting spots was constantly circulated through filters with sensors and tested for old and new viruses, bacteria, and prions. New agents were neutralized and gene sequenced, and their composition transmitted to labs around the world in real time, including here at the CDC.

Dr. Prosper and her team were three for three in identifying, neutralizing, and developing treatment protocols for the attacks. Still, the terrorists might just get lucky someday.

She voice activated her car’s view-screen and patched in the team. “We need to do some more gam­ing on possible infiltration scenarios. I’m worried that we might be missing something, that these attacks might be lulling us into a sense of complacency.”

Colonel Andrews out of Fort Detrick, Maryland, responded, “Let’s do that. I’ll set it up with the Nation­al Assessment & Visioning Center. We should bring in the unexamined threats team to generate some uncon­ventional inputs into the game.”

Scenario 2: People’s War

When National Security Professional Corps Intel­ligence Specialist Robert Wong worked the wall, the entire room paid attention. He was a blur of motion as he pulled up information on the latest fleet situational reports, news reports and broadcasts of domestic as­sassinations and sabotage, and statistical analyses of the likelihood that these were isolated events. It was hard to argue with the picture he painted: the United States was in a global, undeclared war with China.

The truce following the triumph of the U.S. Pacific Fleet over the Chinese incursion had apparently been empty rhetoric on the part of Chairman Tang. China had claimed that the surprise attack on Taiwan was an internal matter and that U.S. forces had accidentally gotten in the way. Specialist Wong showed that the Chinese had never taken the truce seriously and had not hesitated to continue its war by other means.

Based on this analysis, General Garzoff, the Chair of Interagency Crisis Task Force Gold, sanctioned a Red Homeland Alert under the National Operational Framework and patched in the President’s Director of National Security to recommend that the President be briefed on options to raise the national defense posture and protect U.S. supply chains and interests overseas. Garzoff then triggered the Business Emergency Management Assistance Compact to release additional government assets to help companies fight the information assault on their systems.

After a brief video conference with the President and his Director of National Security, Garzoff ordered a restructuring of the Gold Team. Strategic nuclear and conventional warfighting issues would be managed directly by the President through the traditional combatant commands, supported by a new Silver Team that would provide connectivity to the other agencies and the Gold Team.

Asymmetric warfare would become the primary focus of the Gold Team, which would be expanded to include additional affected agencies, such as the Departments of Transportation, Energy, and the Treasury. The Gold Team would have three subordinate teams, one working defensive operations, one working offensive strategy, and the other coordinating Chinese-U.S. negotiations. State Department negotiators would coordinate their efforts with both the Gold and Silver Teams going forward. The Director of National Security through General Garzoff would bridge the two Teams. Intelligence Specialist Wong was rewarded for his keen insights by taking the lead of the Gold Team’s offensive strategy development.

Scenario 3: A Grand Strategy

President-Elect Anne Cummings stepped down into the well of the large conference room with her entourage. The lush blue carpet and warm wooden panels created a hushed effect, almost like entering an old library or a church. A bird fluttered across the oval skylight. Was that real sky? she wondered.

Tom Hughes, the Director of the National Assessment and Visioning Center, strode across the carpet and extended his hand. “Welcome back, Governor. We are honored to have you here today.”

“It is my pleasure, Tom. It’s good to see you again in person. It’s been a couple years since we held the Governors Convention here,” she said with a warm smile. “You know Dr. Tyrone Chandra, my national security advisor; Ms. Catalina Sharp, my economic advisor; and Ms. Akemi Takahashi, my long-range planner?”

“Yes, good to see you all again. Akemi has been working very closely with us and her predecessor to refine the underlying model assumptions. I’m happy to say that not much tweaking was necessary. We paid pretty close attention to the campaign, ” beamed the Director.

“I’d also like to welcome the folks conferencing in,” the Director said, indicating the faces strung out along the top edge of the screen that wrapped floor-to-ceiling 270˚ around the conference room. “We are pleased to have your transition liaisons join us from the various department strategy offices, along with senior representatives of the outgoing Simpson administration. Welcome all.”

“My mission today is to acquaint you with the general operation of the National Assessment and Visioning Center and its departmental satellite offices,” announced the Director.

“NAVC was first funded in 2009 to assist the Presi­dent and his administration in developing a dynamic national grand strategy. The ability to create such a strategy was complicated by interagency stovepipes and rice bowls, political constraints on free and open discussion, and the technical difficultly of developing an integrated strategy in an increasingly complicated and interconnected world.

“The hope for the new organization was that it would not only be a safe place to debate, develop, test, and monitor long-range strategies, but that it could be an objective source of information that could withstand a change in administration. The problem, of course, was that pure objectivity was a mirage. De­spite the best intentions and the selection of generally open-minded staff, bias and ideology always crept back in.

“The answer was to embrace varying points of view . . . to model and evaluate all points of view, rath­er than trying to find the one correct view,” continued the Director.

“As I hope Akemi has told you, our bipartisan, or rather multipartisan, process is now ensured through our agency’s host of checks and balances. These mea­sures touch on all our activities ranging from how we hire and rotate our staff to how we build our models and debate the results.

“We also found that an open process keeps us hon­est, so we have developed an extensive outreach pro­cess to participants across the political spectrum, in government, industry, and academia. Our public dis­cussion boards are particularly lively–there is nothing some posters like better than catching us with an un­supported assumption or an incorrect application of an algorithm,” chuckled the Director.

“So are all points of view deemed to be of equal value and effectiveness?” asked Dr. Chandra, the incoming national security advisor.

“I wouldn’t put it that way. While all points of view are captured and modeled, their value and effectiveness are determined by many other factors within the modeling system. Positions must be supported by evidence and coherent, logical paths. If they are simply assertions, they will be flagged as such,” replied the Director. “Why don’t we look at an example?”

Swiping the screen of his wristwatch, the Director brought the main wall to animated life as a timeline stretched from 1980 at one end to 2080 at the other.

“Let’s run a quick ‘what if’ scenario,” said the Director as he walked to a large, inclined touchscreen table in the center of the room. Waving his hand over a world map, he highlighted the countries of the nascent Latin American Union. The main wall glowed with event and trend markers in a rainbow of colors.

“This view here is as close to a normative, objective view as we can produce. As you see, it’s pretty sparse and contains only elements that are demonstrable, accepted facts or trends that have been broadly agreed upon within the statistical boundaries indicated.”

“If we call up your administration’s view,” the Director said as he subvocalized a command to the wall, “we see there is much more detail at this level. We can also cycle through the department views . . . notice the intersections where one department’s strategy runs into another department’s.”

“What are the flashing icons?” asked Dr. Chandra.

“The flashing icons represent new elements that have been placed on the wall by the system’s estimation engine, but have not yet been validated by our team members. This one here is an analysis by the State Department’s Latin America Desk of General Secretary Chávez’s recent address to the LAU General Assembly. As you can see, if I tap on the icon there is a complete interagency argument map supporting the analysis, plus a video of the speech.”

“Do you get a feed of all operational and intelligence information?” quizzed Dr. Chandra.

“No, we don’t here. Downstairs we have a parallel center that takes our feed behind the Common Secured Environment firewall and integrates it with classified, sensitive, and operational information. Up here, we are neither an operations center nor an intelligence fusion center. We are strictly an open source, meta-analysis center, integrating the best analysis of our government and public partners. We find that what we lose in not having access to the latest classified information is compensated for by our ability to have an open dialogue with a wide variety of experts and stakeholders. Moreover, our timeline is a little longer. We are not overwhelmed by the day’s in-basket. We have the luxury, as well as the responsibility, to look longer term.”

“Can we look at the trends from an economic point of view?” queried the President-elect’s economic advisor.

“Certainly. Here are your administration’s economic trend lines under the ‘what if’ assumption that Mexico joins the LAU embargo of oil to the United States.”

“What is that red line receding into the background?” she asked.

“That indicates a strong connection between this economic scenario and domestic politics in the U.S. Southwest,” the Director replied. “Have you gotten to the point where the grand strategy writes itself?” joked the President-Elect.

“Hah, hah, no, no, the primary job of the models, analysis, and visualizations you have seen is to get our collective thinking organized. There are too many options, too many impacts, too many interrelationships for the human mind to follow without assistance.

“The Center and its partner centers in each agency help avoid continually reinventing the wheel and arguing past one another. The real work, the work of finding common ground, crafting solutions, and implementing these solutions to achieve national objectives begins only here with your people, aided by our staff. Decision-making remains the domain of the President and Congress.”

2040

Scenario 4: A New Economy

Ron Guilder laid back in his favorite arm chair, which shifted to better conform to his thin frame. Ron knew the meeting did not start for another 5 minutes, but he always arrived early to meetings and could not help himself. This despite the fact that he knew others on the Homeland Security Collaboration Subcommit­tee were equally susceptible to being 10 minutes late.

Ron liked to complain about the virtual meetings, how sometimes they were tedious and how they took up all his time, but secretly he looked forward to the meetings. They gave him purpose, something to do. And he knew they were important.

Ron had been the Chief Financial Officer of a For­tune 500 company before automated intelligent en­terprise systems and robots made him obsolete. Like others, at first he had embraced his new life of early retirement and leisure.

Robotic manufacturing and intelligent manage­ment systems had streamlined business, lowering prices on goods and services to the point where every­one had the basics, plus most luxuries too.

Ron, however, suspected that no work and all play would make him and everyone else a dull boy, so he was grateful when his name came up to participate in a regional economic subcommittee of the Homeland Security Collaboration Committee. The subcommit­tee worked with committees across the country net­worked through the federal collaborative information knowledge management system. Their mission: figure out how to maintain a healthy, productive, and free society with nearly unlimited wealth and leisure and few opportunities for employment.

The arguments at times were fairly heated. Some advocated a laissez faire approach, maximizing indi­vidual freedom and minimizing government inter­vention. Others took an opposite tack, arguing for a greater government role. The most extreme holders of this view thought the government needed to get peo­ple off their couches, unhook them from their varied electronic forms of nirvana, and force to them to im­prove themselves through education and art projects.

The greatest thing about these discussions was that the entire debate was captured and analyzed by an intelligent assistant. It noted when lines of argu­ment were duplicated, when they violated previously argued positions, and when evidence was lacking. This meant that the meetings actually made progress, that nonsense could be discarded, and that common ground might ultimately be found.

Ron’s concerns were focused on economic issues. He was worried that the new economic realities were unprecedented and hence unpredictable. He worried that life right now was a little too good to be true. He shared his views with like-minded individuals, who got him started modeling his concerns and then expanded his group to include others who thought him a Malthusian pessimist. The result was a vigorous, quantitative debate that seemed to be making headway. In fact, some of their findings last year had helped undermine a U.S. Supreme Court case urging a constitutional right to food and shelter. More recently, their work made its way into a revision of the Income Preservation Act of 2034.

Ah, well, since the meeting was going to start late anyway, Ron decided to grab a quick bite to eat. With a series of rapid eye movements and guttural remarks Ron ordered his home robotic system to bring him a nice vat-grown pastrami sandwich made from that 14-grain artisan rye bread he enjoyed so much.

Scenario 5: Pax Robotica

Total dominance of the battlefield had been achieved in just 3 days. From command bunkers in Colorado, override controllers watched as autono­mous robotic swarms annihilated the loyalist Home­land Guard with minimal collateral damage. The remainder of the Chuntu Army saw what was com­ing, listened to the broadcast warnings, dropped their weapons, and ran home as fast as they could. The genocidal Chuntu leadership was captured or killed in brief, but brutal, house-to-house fighting with wheeled, crawling, and airborne robots.

Now, 2 weeks after the UN-sanctioned invasion, the process of recovery was in full swing. U.S. De­partment of Defense engineering robots cleaned the battlefield of damaged equipment and unexploded ordnance, while State Department robots set about re­pairing damaged infrastructure. Diplomatic Officers were sent into the field to address humanitarian needs and political reconciliation.

Diplomatic Officer Amanda Huygens rode her FCV-30 Forward Control Vehicle into the seemingly deserted village of Saya and dismounted. Her cotton uniform blouse fluttered in the gentle breeze as she scanned her environment. Saya was a single street tribal village far off the beaten path.

Known to be sympathetic to Homeland Guard in­surgents, the village had been under close observation since the initiation of hostilities. As the first American on the scene, Amanda had been sent to assess the hu­manitarian needs of the village and render assistance as needed. Her Army GuardBot escort team scurried and hovered ahead, investigating the road, the buildings, and obstacles along the road. Amanda’s retinal scan indicated that the path to the local tribal chieftain’s concrete and tin house was clear. Reminders of local etiquette scrolled across her lens as her heightened senses strained to hear any impending danger.

Knocking on the door, she called out “Yo soy un diplomático de los Estados Unidos. Estoy aquí bajo or­den 235 de la O.N.U.” Her universal translator convert­ed her West Texas drawl into a reasonable facsimile of rural Chuntu. A tall man in his early 40s answered the door. As he extended his right hand in an apparent gesture of friendship, the Army GuardBot closest to her detected an added weight in his left. As a machete came into view, the GuardBot overrode its standing rules of engagement and sprayed the chieftain with 1,000 paralytic microflechettes, instantly bringing him to his knees.

An Army colonel, overseeing the escort operation from Colorado, reacquired control over the GuardBot and cautioned the chieftain through the GuardBot’s onboard translator not to struggle, and the effects of the drugs would be reversed. Instead, the chieftain began to subvocalize a command to his home commu­nication network. The colonel twitched his eye, and the microflechettes anaesthetized the chieftain com­pletely. The colonel then commanded the rest of the robotic escort team to jam communications and lock down the house.

However, the colonel quickly saw that he had been too late. The message must have gotten out, because almost immediately he began to pick up a feed from nearby aerial surveillance drones that a group of ve­hicles violating curfew were heading towards the vil­lage. Microbots dispersed throughout the battlespace, hitched a ride on the vehicles and determined their armament, confirming their hostile intent according to the rules of engagement and the announced curfew.

Amanda, reviewing the situation report in coordination with intelligence and diplomatic officers, stood by as the colonel sent a real-time request for a military strike against the convoy. With no override order coming from Amanda or Washington, the request was passed to a circling UCAV squadron, which carried out a high-energy laser strike within five minutes of the initial sighting.

Amanda leaned over the chieftain and wondered at his reaction. Surely, by now he would have understood the complete dominance of U.S. forces. He should know that she was there only to provide his people aid and a chance at a fresh start. She shivered at the thought of the machete, not wanting to be the war’s first American casualty. She straightened herself and signaled to the rear humanitarian group to send forward the robotic reconstruction convoy and the standard class 3 rural supply package. The tribal leader was now the colonel’s responsibility.

Scenario 6: Who Holds the High Ground

It is hard to put a finger on just when the Moon became so important, but the trend lines were clearly visible in the long-range forecasts of the National As­sessment and Visioning Center. Based on a strategic review of these trends in 2010, the President’s Secu­rity Council ordered the formation of a standing Inter­agency Team, dubbed Team Eagle.

The Team was designed to navigate the shoals of competing agency priorities and make unified recom­mendations to the Office of Management and Budget for funding in the National Security Resource Docu­ment, the rolling integrated national security resource strategy. It included all the usual suspects: represen­tatives from the Department of Defense, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, NASA, NOAA, and the Department of Commerce. This traditional group was augmented by the Assistants for National Security for Energy, State, and Treasury once deposits of Helium-3 were found on the Moon.

He-3, the fuel of second-generation fusion reac­tors on Earth, was the first significant resource found in outer space. Available in abundance on the lunar surface, it provoked a land grab among countries and companies alike.

Realizing the strategic importance of this devel­opment, Team Eagle developed a two-track strategy to modernize its space transportation system and to negotiate a global treaty on shared access to lunar re­sources. China, Russia, India, Brazil, the Islamic Re­public, the European Union, and a private consortium called simply The Group all had Moon bases these days and were looking for a better path than a dan­gerous land grab.

“What’s the status of the latest round of negotia­tions?” queried Assistant for National Security Ted Benson of the Department of Commerce. “Most of the delegations are on board with the latest draft, but Brazil is still holding out for a larger stake,” reported Rascal Schwarski, NASA’s Chief En­gineering Officer.

“I think it’s just a matter of time before they agree,” offered Dan Higgs, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Space Acquisition. “Let’s turn our attention to se­curing our launch capacity. Space elevator construc­tion is well underway, but we have a disagreement over cislunar and translunar transportation. We need the capability to put objects into geosynchronous and Lagrangian orbits. NASA is focused on Asimov Moon-base resupply and a run at Mars.”

“Congress is not in the mood to fund two solu­tions,” Schwarski said defensively.

“That’s why we need to work together to form a win-win proposition that is too good for Congress to ignore.” offered Ross LaPorte, the Special Assistant for Space to the Director of National Security. Ross was a member of the National Security Professional Corps and a recent detailee from the Office of Science and Technology Policy. Ross chaired Team Eagle and sought ways to break through roadblocks wherever they occurred.

“I think if we can model our solutions in the con­text of the changing strategic environment, we will have a better chance of convincing Chairman Russell and his House Select National Security Committee on Space of the importance of space in the coming de­cades,” continued LaPorte. “We need to show him the tangible economic benefits of moving forward and national security costs of standing still. He’s a patriot and concerned for his constituents. If we can make the case, I think he’ll make the appropriate decision.”

Scenario 7: A Brave New World

Colonel Samuel R. Wright, Chair, Neuro-Psycho­logical Health Interagency Team, testified as follows before the Senate Select National Security Commit­tee for Neuro-Psychological Operations, Washington, DC, June 14, 2040.

Colonel Wright: Ms. Chairwoman, Senator Wilkes, and Members of the Committee, I appreciate the op­portunity to address you at this important moment in our history. I would like to summarize my testimony and submit the full text for the record.

Chairwoman: Without objection, it will be received and added to the record. You may proceed, Colonel.

Colonel Wright: Thank you, Ms. Chairwoman. I come before you today with a proposal to end global conflict and violence. In the United States, in Europe, and in the Pacific Rim, we find ourselves in an age of unprecedented peace and positive collaboration, with all the benefits that entails. Like penicillin a century earlier, the so-called Healthy Mind and Body Revolu­tion has changed personal and public health in ways that have yet to be counted.

We in the administration believe it is time to share this miracle of modern science with the rest of the world, the part of the world that still suffers from ca­sual violence, that still threatens violence against its neighbors, the source of terrorist attacks that continue to this day.

As you are well aware, beginning in 2016, parents, who were already accustomed to eliminating genetic diseases from their unborn children, became enthusi­astic supporters of new screening tests for the genetic and epigenetic markers of neurological disorders and violent pathological tendencies. How many parents want their kid to grow up to be the schoolyard bully or spend their adult life behind bars?

By 2030, the incidence of youth violence across the developed world showed a precipitous drop. It became clear that the vast majority of violent youth crime was being committed by a fairly small slice of the popula­tion, a part that had not been treated as children. New laws were enacted giving convicted adult felons the choice of incarceration or treatment. Recidivism rates became negligible among those treated.

This dramatic change in human motivation com­bined with sophisticated policing and ubiquitous ter­ror detection technology has largely ended the threats within our borders, but this is not the case in the un­derdeveloped parts of the world.

You know the history. A 15-kiloton improvised nuclear device destroyed Chittagong, Bangladesh’s main seaport, in 2012, leaving 100,000 dead and in­jured. A weapon with the same fingerprint killed an­other 200,000 in Jakarta just two years later. In 2016, a modified form of the Bubonic Plague swept through San’a, the capital of Yemen, killing tens of thousands before burning itself out. The culprit: a disaffected 19-year-old medical student experiment­ing with a home biolab kit.

Radiological attacks in Mandalay, Burma, and Ha­rare, Zimbabwe, led to few deaths, but mass panic and abandonment of those cities. Neither government had the wherewithal or motivation to clean them up.

These major city attacks, as you know, have only been the tip of the iceberg. Suicide bombings and mass murders have become rampant in certain parts of the world. Ethnic cleansing occurs all too frequently in underdeveloped regions.

Which brings us to the proposal before you today. Working with your staff, the Neuro-Psychological Health Interagency Team has developed a three-point plan to end the scourge of violence from the Earth once and for all.

First, we propose that the United States work with the UN Public Health and Bioethics Council and our European and Asian allies to establish the goal of 100 percent national participation in a new Operation MERCY before the decade is out.

Second, Operation MERCY will establish a com­mon global fund to assist poor countries in setting up neuro-psychological treatment centers in hospitals and prison facilities. This fund will depend upon na­tional aid programs and private donations.

Third, we propose that the UN develop contingen­cy plans for inoculating the populations of any pariah nation that does not voluntarily participate in the pro­gram and continues to try to export terror, threaten foreign invasion, or terrorizes its own populace. We will use the same aerosol dispersion techniques the World Health Organization has been using for the past two decades to distribute vaccines and geneti­cally modified viruses to treat many of the underde­veloped world’s worst diseases.

While historically we have often turned a blind eye to the internal affairs of sovereign nations, this fevered hatred, combined with the increasing accessibility of cheap home kits for genetic engineering, chemical manufacture, and nanoparticle design, have made it essential for civilized nations to act. No longer can we tolerate individuals with bloodlust in their hearts and the means to create new, untold horrors in the privacy of their basements. How long do we have before one of these twisted, damaged souls unleashes a holocaust on this earth, one from which we cannot recover?

It is our duty to help these people, to bring them in from the cold. If their own governments won’t help them, then we will.

Thank you. If you have questions, I’d be glad to answer them now.

Chairwoman: Thank you, Colonel Wright, for your testimony. As you know, we are on a short clock here this morning, so I think we should just jump right into questions. Let me begin by commending you on this important public service and your efforts to keep our nation safe. To put it bluntly, we are running out of time. The advancements in biology, chemistry, and nano-manufacturing over the last 2 decades have put the power to destroy civilization in the hands of people who cannot control themselves and hold only contempt for the rest of the world. Senator Wilkes?

Senator Wilkes: Thank you Ms. Chairwoman. Col­onel Wright, what you are proposing is altering the minds of people you don’t like against their will. How do you square this mission with the medical oath you took to “do no harm?” Colonel Wright: These are people who already don’t have a choice. Their governments are indoctrinating and drugging their children. Their economies are in collapse. They need our help.

Senator Wilkes: Colonel, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Are we so arrogant as to believe our way is the right way?

Colonel Wright: If by “our way” you mean the approach adopted by leaders of both parties in closed session and by the UN and our allies, then yes, we do believe “our way” is the right way. “Our way” is the way of peace and cooperation. It is the path towards making positive contributions to society.

Senator Wilkes: Yes, yes, peace and cooperation. Sounds very nice until it is your mind that is being altered. Doesn’t this all sound a little Orwellian to you?

Colonel Wright: I admit the third step makes most people uneasy, but the techniques have been proven safe with our very own children, they have passed through numerous trials and commissions. And remember, all the models show we are facing an existential threat here. The question is not “if” an individual or nation unleashes an attack on all mankind, but “when.”

Chairman: Excuse me, Colonel, that buzzer is our final call for the floor vote on the confirmation of the new Director of National Security. Clearly, that’s an important interruption. Colonel, we will continue this another time. This meeting is adjourned.

2060

Scenario 8: A Warm Reception

Special Envoy and Green Earth Team Lead Aman­da Huygens stepped out on the balcony of the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. The reception was in full swing inside and she needed to catch a breath of fresh air. As dusk gathered, she looked wistfully over the city towards the India Gate. Through the closed French doors, she could hear the string quartet play­ing her favorite Strauss waltz as the festivities contin­ued without her.

Decades of hard work from her and her interagen­cy team had paid off. Planetary carbon dioxide lev­els had dropped off to pre-1970s levels; temperatures were back to and stabilized at pre-industrial levels. While some countries grumbled that the world was now too cold and that the lower temperatures were degrading their agricultural sectors, the consensus was a sigh of relief.

New nanotechnological materials had been the key. They enabled cleaner, more efficient, and distributed power, supporting a new hydrogen and solar econo­my. When the price for hydrogen power dropped be­low the price of fossil fuels without subsidy, the entire world seemed to shift overnight.

Amanda and her team worked both domestically and internationally to develop the new technologies and smooth the transition to hydrogen power. She ne­gotiated reductions with the oil rich countries. Russia and Saudi Arabia were the last to give up on fuel oil and did so only when they were shown that they were losing money.

The lower average temperatures were a victory, but the real celebration was over the fact that the world had met the challenge of global climate change and maintained economic growth at the same time. Instead of locking the world into an austere version of the 1960s, Amanda and her team had focused their attention on win-win opportunities, allowing the un­derdeveloped world to develop and release green­house gases until remediation technologies could be put in place.

In 2060, the world was richer and cleaner than it had ever been. The only “underdeveloped” countries left in the world were those led by autarkic dictators and thugs. They were too few and far between to af­fect the climate on their own.

“I guess I’ve got to get a new job,” Amanda whis­pered to herself.

“That may be wishful thinking,” chimed Marta, her “automated personal access liaison” or aPAL. “The Earth’s magnetosphere appears to be weakening.”

“Marta, you’re such a downer,” thought Amanda.

“Excuse me, Amanda. The Canadian Ambassador has arrived for your party and has requested to see you,” interrupted Marta.

Ambassador, welcome to the Embassy. Enjoy the refreshments. I’ll be with you shortly, thought Aman­da as she turned back to the party.

Scenario 9: It’s a Small World

In 2037, the age of nanotech could have come to a screeching halt when unmoderated, self-replicating nanobots escaped accidentally from a design plant on the outskirts of Mexico City.

The so-called “gray goo” would have expanded from the plant in an ever increasing arc of destruction had the U.S. Nanotech Fast Response Team not been established in 2011. Over the following decades, the N-Fast Team had trained local first responders and industry around the world in effective techniques and tools for combating runaway nanobots. N-Fast also provided safety guidelines and certifications that most countries, including Mexico, had adopted. The result was that the Mexico City leak had been detected almost as soon as it occurred. It was rapidly contained and neutralized and only made page A-12 of the New York Times and Gazette feed.

Miranda Chavez, the U.S. Chief Nanotech Officer and head of the interagency N-Fast Team smiled with pride when she stumbled across the old electronic clipping. She had been only a junior member of the National Security Professional Corps at the time, but the N-Fast Team had been her first assignment. It was exciting in those days, because everything was so new and changing so rapidly. It really was a different time.

Over the next 20 years, nanotech had transformed the world in ways too numerous to count, and N-Fast had been there to ease the path forward. In conjunction with the National Assessment and Visioning Center, it monitored and extrapolated emerging technology trends and designed policy pathways that would foster the technologies without sacrificing safety and the environment.

Working with the International League of Democracies and the UN, N-Fast and the State Department negotiated a series of treaties determining how the world’s resources would be managed and how to avoid conflict in the future. Together they establish a “blue goo” nanobot force to enforce international law in the sea, air, and beneath the earth’s surface.

Within this framework, ever more sophisticated nanotech spread throughout the world with minimal impact on the environment and without the threat of warfare. The efficiencies of nanotechnology had brought the cost of most goods down below the former price of the constituent raw materials. Nano production required significantly less energy than traditional macroscopic production and resulted in no appreciable waste. The need for transportation was also largely eliminated by the ability to make products just about anywhere.

The world grew richer and healthier by leaps and bounds. The world of 2060 was a world without hunger, poverty, disease, and aging.

Beginning in the 2040s, N-Fast, through a consortium of industrial and religious organizations, had taken a leading role in providing free nano assemblers worldwide to produce the most basic human necessities. Simultaneously, global competition ensured the spread of more sophisticated nano production facilities worldwide, making even luxury goods available for a song. Nano businesses primarily made their money through creating new and more fashionable products. Older designs were quickly copied and made available for free to anyone on the mesh network.

Real estate was the only remaining high priced good, and even that was changing now as the nano industry honed its ability to design and “grow” new land out of the sea floor and in less hospitable regions of the world. Deserts and tundra alike were becoming paradisaical oases, for the right price.

Miranda wondered if the nanotech revolution would turn to space next. She wondered what the future would hold.