Migration and MENA

Ever since a young Tunisian man set himself on fire in a public square in January 2011, the force of the Arab Spring has spread across numerous countries in the region and has brought down several long-standing regimes, including that of Colonel Gaddafi in Libya. One year on, the impacts are still being felt, particularly on migration. In the case of Libya alone, since the end of February 2011, 790,000 migrant workers and their families have crossed the Libyan border into other countries to escape the ongoing violence. This has resulted in the worst migration crisis seen in the region since the first Gulf War, when 250,000 migrants were evacuated.

Although migration crises of this kind are not new, the massive outflow of migrants fleeing the violence in Libya represents one of the largest migration crises in modern history. Given that there were approximately 1.8 million migrant workers in Libya, a country heavily reliant on migrant workers before the crisis, it is clear that such large-scale movement has external pagesignificant implicationscall_made for the neighboring region and beyond, as well as for the post-crisis reconstruction of Libya itself. In comparison, the last major migration crisis directly affecting migrant populations was the 2006 crisis in Lebanon, which led to the mass evacuation of 35,000 migrants. Thus, the scale of the crisis in Libya has brought to the political foreground the issue of protection and rights of migrants caught in crisis; the role of State actors and international cooperation mechanisms in such situations; and the implications of such crises for migrants’ countries of origin as well as for wider migration management systems. As the crisis in Libya has occurred alongside an ongoing food crisis in the Horn of Africa and food insecurity in several sub-Saharan African countries, in addition to political instability in others such as Côte d’Ivoire and Mali, the future stability of the region is a concern.

Flows and transitions

Libya has been predominately a destination and transit country for regular and irregular migrants alike. While it was a major destination country in the 1990s, encouraging low-skilled and unskilled workers from sub-Saharan Africa to fill its need for manpower, it increasingly became a transit country in the 2000s. At the same time, large-scale deportations of irregular migrants were carried out throughout the 2000s, resulting in the external pageremovalcall_made of possibly hundreds of thousands of irregular migrants. According to UNDESA, the number of migrants in Libya in 2010 totaled 682,482, which amounts to 10.4 per cent of Libya’s total resident population (2009). In addition to these figures, Human Rights Watch external pageestimatedcall_made that there were between 1 million and 1.2 million irregular migrants in Libya in 2006, with the majority coming from West Africa and the Horn of Africa. external pageOther sourcescall_made suggest that Libya hosted between 2 million and 2.5 million migrants (approximately 25% of its population), highlighting the fact that migration data in Libya are variable and that no accurate estimates exist.

Egypt was the first country neighboring Libya to experience the impact of the crisis. As early as 22 February 2011, Egyptians, other migrants and Libyans started fleeing Libya as the Libyan city of Benghazi (some 500 km from the border) began its revolt against Gaddafi’s regime. Between 22 and 25 February 2011, 46,700 people crossed the border, 81 per cent of whom were Egyptians.

Tunisia has been the largest recipient of migrants fleeing Libya, accounting for 43 per cent of the total number. Due to Tunisia’s proximity to Tripoli and other major Libyan cities, Tunisians and other migrants flocked to the main border points of Ras Adjir and Dehiba. In total, from the beginning of the crisis until January 2012, almost 137,000 Tunisians and 208,489 TCNs fled Libya through the Tunisian border.

Since 24 February 2011, Algeria has also witnessed cross-border movement through the 1,000 km-long border with Libya. The composition of the migrants (mainly Egyptians and Asians, during the earliest weeks) changed after the first month to include more Libyans and sub-Saharan Africans. 13,962 persons (made up of 29 different nationalities) left Libya and headed for the Algerian border.

Cross-border arrivals by boat to Italy and Malta represented 3.9 per cent of the overall movement of people fleeing Libya (27,465 persons out of 790,000). Between April and August 2011, IOM registered an increased number of arrivals from Libya to Lampedusa, Italy. This time frame corresponded to a period of further deterioration of the security situation in Libya, which included violence towards migrants. Landings stopped on 17 August as the rebels took control of Tripoli. In total, Lampedusa had received 25,935 persons by the end of September 2011, and Malta has received 1,530 since the beginning of the crisis. The main countries of origin of those fleeing Libya for Italy and Malta are Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Eritrea, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Somalia and Sudan (there are almost no Libyan nationals). The migrants included a limited number of families, minors and women with children, and they routinely arrived on un-seaworthy vessels, often carrying more than 600 people, which led to a number of tragedies at sea.

Impact on Countries of Origin

The massive numbers of migrants who fled Libya also have an impact on migrants’ countries of origin, as well as on transit countries. Although it is still too early to assess the longer-term impact of the crisis, there have been some immediate effects, particularly with regard to the reintegration of the returning populations, and the potential consequences in terms of remittance flows.

The size of the remittance outflows from pre-crisis Libya is significant, with outflows from Libya in 2010 totaling external pagenearly $1 billioncall_made. Because of the unemployment and poverty crises of many of the migrants’ countries of origin, this loss of income could be devastating for migrants’ countries of origin. During their time in Libya, 91 per cent of Malian returnees surveyed by IOM reported sending back remittances to their families in Mali. As reported above, the vast majority (93.7%) of Egyptian returnees surveyed by IOM also sent remittances home and 77.8 per cent external pagereportedcall_made being the sole breadwinner for their respective families. In Tunisia, where the official unemployment rate at 18.57 per cent as of 22 September 2011 (amounting to roughly 700,000 people out of work in a country of 10.5 million), it is likely that the 97,000 Tunisians who fled the violence in Libya now account for a significant percentage of Tunisia’s unemployed. Additionally, several of the major home countries of migrants (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger) are experiencing severe food crises, and many are politically unstable. The sudden influx of returnees into their native communities may exacerbate these significant challenges, and their return has the potential to further destabilize the tenuous security situations.

Conclusion

As almost 11 per cent of the Libyan population, pre-crisis, was composed of foreigners, it is clear that migration will play a significant role in Libya’s reconstruction efforts. Migrant workers historically used to take jobs that native Libyans did not want, especially in construction, oil production, and agriculture. It will be particularly important for Libya to attract a wide range of migrant workers back to support its oil production and its construction sector, in addition to filling positions in highly skilled sectors such as health and engineering, which were also affected by the crisis and the mass exodus of migrant workers.

However, the challenge of attracting migrants (particularly sub-Saharan Africans, who comprised the largest share of migrants in Libya, pre-crisis) back to Libya is a formidable one, given the levels of continued hostility towards them. Efforts will need to be made by the current government to combat anti-migrant sentiment and to uphold its obligations under the 1990 International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families, which was ratified by Libya in 2004. Assessing current labor market needs, shortages and opportunities for renewed labor cooperation with countries of origin will be crucial for facilitating migration back to Libya. Furthermore, such assessments, in addition to the systematic collection of data on migration, will help in formulating evidence-based policies in the future.