Finland, Sweden: A Step Toward Greater Nordic Security Cooperation
13 Nov 2012
Summary
Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt (L) Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen (2ndL), Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide (C), Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt (2ndR) and Icelandic Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir
An agreement for Finland and Sweden to participate in Iceland's air surveillance represents significant progress toward greater security collaboration within the Nordic region. The plan, which Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen and Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt agreed upon at an Oct. 30 meeting of prime ministers of the Nordic states in Helsinki, received support from Icelandic Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir.
The agreement does not yet formalize Finland or Sweden's participation in the air patrol mission; it will require ratification by the Finnish, Swedish and Icelandic parliaments, and that ratification could depend on the nature and risks of the mission. Moreover, because neither Finland nor Sweden is a NATO member (although they are signatories to NATO's Partnership for Peace program), their inclusion in air surveillance will need NATO approval as well. Although the pact is not yet finalized, it is part of a growing trend of increasing external pageregional cooperation within Europe that has been particularly pronounced in the Nordic and Baltic regions.
Analysis
The five Nordic countries -- Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Iceland -- share a relatively long history of collaboration. Wedged between the Arctic, the European mainland and Russia, these countries share similar geopolitical and security concerns. In the 1950s, before deeper integration began via the European Union, the Nordic countries had a passport union and common labor market with each other. In 1948 and 1949, the countries even considered forming a Nordic defense union, similar to NATO, to guarantee each other's protection. The plan failed because of differences among the countries. With the strengthening of European institutions and the end of the Cold War, each Nordic country pursued its own goals.
However, with the European financial crisis putting pressure on both the European Union and NATO, the situation has changed. For the past year, external pageFinland has openly considered increasing its security ties with the other Nordic countries. In June, Finnish officials stated that the country was considering sending several jets to help Nordic Defense Cooperation monitor Iceland's airspace, but that it would not do so without Sweden's participation as well. The interest in this participation has finally been secured, at least from the Swedish prime minister.
Nordic Defense Cooperation, which includes all the Nordic countries, is not an official military alliance on par with NATO. Rather, it is more of an informal grouping that seeks to reduce defense costs and encourage security collaboration among its members. The possible inclusion of Finland and Sweden in Iceland's air patrol mission is an example of this regional bloc moving toward further legitimization and cooperation. The details of the plan ultimately will determine whether the air patrol agreement moves forward, but the Finnish and Swedish leadership's desire to push ahead with the plan is significant in and of itself.
This growing security cooperation comes amid increased economic activity among these countries. Trade within and between the Nordic and Baltic regions is growing, with an increasing emphasis on regional energy projects, such as joint electricity grids and natural gas interconnectors. However, there are questions and challenges on the economic front as well, because the Nordic countries are members of different economic and monetary groups. Only Finland is a eurozone member; Denmark and Sweden are EU members but not in the currency bloc; and Norway and Iceland are not EU members at all. These different groupings create barriers to further integration, and the suggestion to create a Nordic currency union is not a serious prospect in the current environment.
There is also the issue of Russia. Given Finland and Sweden's proximity to Russia, these countries have long been a external pagekey security concern for Moscow. This is why neither Finland nor Sweden is a NATO member; both were understood to be neutral during the division of Europe into Western and Soviet politico-military blocs after World War II. Although both joined the European Union in 1995, they abstained from NATO membership as the alliance expanded following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Russia is very sensitive about moves that could strengthen Finland and Sweden's security ties with NATO members. The countries' participation in Iceland's air patrols would be such a move and could prompt Russia to react in the region -- for example, by building up weapons and security forces in Kaliningrad and Belarus.
Domestic politics could also hinder Finland's plans, with Finnish opposition parliament members recently stating that they oppose participation in the air surveillance of a NATO country since it could damage Helsinki's relationship with Moscow.
Ultimately, whether or not it becomes finalized, the Oct. 30 declaration does not fundamentally change the situation in the region. However, it shows that the tendency toward regionalization -- particularly among the Nordic countries -- continues to be a driving force within Europe with implications for NATO, the European Union and Russia.
This article was external pageoriginally prepared and published by ISN partner external pageSTRATFOR.
For additional reading on this topic please see:
Nordic-Baltic Security in the 21st Century
Norden - Making a Difference?
Nordic Approaches to Whole-of-Government