An Interview with Kimberly Kagan, President of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

What inspired you to establish the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and what is its mission?

For multiple reasons, I founded ISW as a nonpartisan, nonprofit, public policy research organization in 2007. Our primary aim as an organization is to help American leaders make and implement strategic decisions that will keep the country strong. We also try to educate policymakers and citizens about war, particularly since healthy democracies rest on civilian control of the military. Civilian policymakers, after all, must be able to evaluate commanders, assess strategies, and decide on what our country’s policies should be. Making such decisions soundly is always difficult, but particularly so during wartime. Next, by improving how our leaders understand conflict, we endeavor to make sure that American strategy and foreign policy are well formulated, specifically for strategically important regions or countries such as the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. We’re here to assist practitioners, implementers, and decision-makers in times of crisis and to support them in conflict zones. Finally, we work to ensure that the US will be secure in the future by identifying and educating potential national security leaders and thinkers from the next generation.

Can you tell us more about ISW’s flagship publications and products?

ISW publishes external pagein-depth reportscall_made, external pageintelligence forecastscall_made, external pagewarningscall_made about emerging threats, and short essays about external pageongoing military operationscall_made or external pagepolitical developmentscall_made in conflict zones. As part of our efforts, I’m proud to say that we’ve conducted ground-breaking, influential research on terrorist networks in Afghanistan, Syrian rebel groups, and most recently, the rise of ISIS. For example, in October 2013 ISW forecasted that the group fully intended to overwhelm Iraqi Security Forces and seize Mosul, nearly eight months before these events occurred.

ISW has also become known worldwide for the quality, frequency, and fidelity of our maps. Our “external pageISIS Sanctuary Mapcall_made,” which we first issued in October 2013, became a widely used image of the conflict raging across Syria and Iraq, particularly after Mosul fell on June 10, 2014. In fact, ISW became the institution of record for tracking ISIS’ presence in the two countries, specifically by producing 17 such maps in the 13 months that followed. They have been used hundreds of times by policymakers, the media, scholars, and the military.

In addition, our map-centered external pageIraq Situation Reportscall_made have covered the country’s on-the-ground realities since Mosul fell. (Again, policymakers, reporters, and many others rely on these reports as a trusted source of information about the ongoing violence within the country.) We had already realized, however, that these realities weren’t just an “Iraq” issue. That’s why we’ve focused our attention on Syria for several years and extended our coverage of ISIS to Europe, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Afghanistan. Some our recent publications on this topic include external pageISIS’s Global Strategy: A Wargamecall_made, external pageThe ISIS Defense for Iraq and Syria: Countering an Adaptive Enemycall_made, and a external pageforecastcall_made of ISIS’s possible operations during Ramadan 2015.

How do you get an accurate understanding of the on-the-ground realities in the countries you cover?

In order to analyze military and political developments in any given area, ISW’s research analysts must holistically understand the factors that define them – e.g., how enemy and friendly forces are being used; local demographics and geography; the area’s history and politics, and much more. Such comprehensive study gives the analysts the foundation they need to explain events in conflict zones and forecast what will happen next. The information, I might add, comes from openly available sources -- from local media to social media. We then leverage innovative technologies to help process, visualize, and enrich this data, and thereby produce accurate, timely, and high-resolution pictures of the situation on the ground. Finally, please note that all of this research is done independently. ISW takes no funding from any government.

With ISIS gaining momentum in Iraq, Syria, and beyond, what strategy do you think the United States should pursue to deal with this threat?

ISIS poses a grave danger to the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East and around the world. The U.S. should follow a strategy that’s designed to defeat and destroy ISIS but also accounts for the presence and impact of other forces in the region. A comprehensive strategy, after all, would reduce Iranian influence in the region; restore sovereign, legitimate states in Iraq and Syria; ensure the survival of states that are currently being threatened, such as Jordan and Lebanon; and prevent other violent, radical actors such as al-Qaeda from thriving.

Recent ISW research has clearly shown that ISIS is no longer confined to Iraq and Syria. Rather, it is actively pursuing and executing a broader regional and global strategy. ISW ran a wargame in early 2015 with the U.S. Army War College that looked at how ISIS might challenge the United States and Europe. Several conclusions emerged from this exercise, including that ISIS’s expansion and global efforts are not piecemeal and ad hoc. It is possible to forecast the organization’s actions based on analyses of its stated intentions, strategy, and capabilities, although within the context of regional trends. Given these truths, the U.S. and its allies – rather than formulate a reactive, piecemeal strategy as crises occur – must embrace forecasting and early action to prevent ISIS from spreading further.

Where do you see ISW in 5 years?

Let me first say that I am very much looking forward to celebrating ISW’s 10^th anniversary in two years. In the past eight years, ISW has produced what we think was ground-breaking research that influenced and improved the formulation of U.S. policy. Indeed, members of our staff served in Iraq and Afghanistan for periods as long as fifteen months and helped shape the execution of U.S. strategy. ISW will ideally continue to perform this role for the next five years. And although we will add some new research areas and educational programs, we will most likely still be tracking ISIS. Because this group and the ideology it espouses require a long-term focus, ISW, its analysts, and their research will be there to support decision-makers and help them make informed choices about this and other emerging threats.

Finally, five years from now ISW will still be an incubator for the next generation of national security leaders. We will continue to bring onboard smart, emerging analysts; we will teach them the fundamentals of research, analysis, and writing; we will train them to engage policymakers and the media; and we will then send them out into the world knowing that they will do great things. Indeed, ISW’s alumni already work in important positions in the U.S. government and the private sector. I see our research as ISW’s contribution to informed policymaking, but I see our analysts and their future as ISW’s legacy.

For additional information please see:
external pageISW President and CEO Dr. Kimberly Kagancall_made
ISW Iraq external pagePublicationscall_made and external pageBlogcall_made
ISW Syria external pagePublicationscall_made and external pageBlogcall_made
external pageISW Global ISIS Intelligence Summarycall_made
external pageISW Ukraine Publicationscall_made
external pageISW Afghanistan Publicationscall_made
ISW on external pageTwittercall_made, external pageFacebookcall_made and external pageLinkedincall_made