China's Environmental Crisis

This article was external pageoriginally publishedcall_made by the external pageCouncil on Foreign Relations (CFR)call_made on 18 January 2016.

Introduction

China’s environmental crisis is one of the most pressing challenges to emerge from the country’s rapid industrialization. Its economic rise, in which GDP grew on average 10 percent each year for more than a decade, has come at the expense of its environment and public health. China is the world’s largest source of carbon emissions, and the air quality of many of its major cities fails to meet international health standards. Life expectancy north of the Huai River is external page5.5 yearscall_made lower than in the south due to air pollution (external pagelife expectancycall_made in China is 75.3 according to 2013 UN figures). Severe water contamination and scarcity have compounded land deterioration. Environmental degradation threatens to undermine the country’s growth and exhausts public patience with the pace of reform. It has also bruised China’s international standing and endangered domestic stability as the ruling party faces increasing scrutiny and public discontent. More recently, amid waning economic growth, leaders in Beijing appear more determined to institute changes to stem further degradation.

A History of Pollution

While China’s economic boom has greatly accelerated the devastation of its land and resources, the roots of its environmental problem stretch back centuries. Dynastic leaders who consolidated territory and developed China’s economy exploited natural resources in ways that contributed to famines and natural disasters, writes CFR’s external pageElizabeth C. Economycall_made in external pageThe River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China's Futurecall_made. “China’s current environmental situation is the result not only of policy choices made today but also of attitudes, approaches, and institutions that have evolved over centuries,” Economy writes.

It wasn’t until the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment that China began to develop environmental institutions. It dispatched a delegation to the conference in Stockholm, but by then the country’s environment was already in dire straits.

Economic reforms in the late 1970s that encouraged development in rural industries further exacerbated the problem.

Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping implemented a series of reforms that diffused authority to the provinces, creating a proliferation of township and village enterprises (TVEs). By 1997, TVEs external pagegenerated almost a thirdcall_madeof national GDP, though TVEs have since declined in relative importance to the Chinese economy. But local governments were difficult to monitor and seldom upheld environmental standards. Today, with a transitioning Chinese economy fueled by large state-owned enterprises, environmental policies remain difficult to enforce at the local level, where officials often priotize hitting economic targets over environmental concerns. Despite the government’s stated goals, external pageactual changecall_made to environmental policies and effective implementation will require revisiting state-society and state-market relations and China’s bureaucratic power structure, writes CFR’s external pageYanzhong Huangcall_made.

China’s modernization has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty and created a booming middle class. In some ways, the country’s trajectory of industrialization is not unlike those of other modernizing nations, such as the UK in the early nineteenth century. But experts say China's environmental footprint is external pagefar greatercall_madethan that of any other single country.

How Bad Is It?

China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, having overtaken the United States in 2007, and was responsible for external page27 percentcall_made of global emissions in 2014.

The country’s external pageenergy consumptioncall_made has ballooned, with external pagereportscall_made from late 2015 implying that it consumed up to 17 percent more coal than previously reported. In January 2013, Beijing experienced a prolonged bout of smog so severe that citizens dubbed it an “ external pageairpocalypsecall_made”; the concentration of hazardous particles was forty times the level deemed safe by the World Health Organization (WHO). In December 2015, Beijing issued red alerts for severe pollution—the first since the emergency alert system was established. The municipal government closed schools, limited road traffic, halted outdoor construction, and paused factory manufacturing. At least 80 percent of China’s 367 cities with real-time air quality monitoring failed to meet national small-particle pollution standards during the first three quarters of 2015, according to a external pageGreenpeace East Asia reportcall_made. In December 2015, the Asian Development Bank approved a external page$300 million loancall_made to help China address the capital region’s choking smog.  

Coal is largely to blame for the degradation of air quality. China is the world’s largest coal producer and accounts for external pageabout halfcall_made of global consumption. Mostly burned in the north, coal provides around two thirds of China’s energy mix, however demand for it appears to be declining. China’s National Energy Agency claimed that external pagecoal use droppedcall_made to 64.2 percent of the mix in 2014, down almost two percent from 2012. This drop in coal demand also comes as China’s economy is slowing, with its central bank external pageforecastingcall_made that annual growth will only expand by 6.8 percent in 2016, down from 6.9 percent a year earlier. Still, doubts linger of China’s commitment to wean itself from coal. In 2015, China’s coal power plant capacity increased by 55 percent in the first six months, 155 new coal-fired plants were approved, and China admitted that it had underreported its annual coal consumption since 2000.

There were a external pagerecord 17 million new carscall_made on the road in 2014, further contributing to China’s high emissions. Car ownership was up to 154 million, according to China’s Ministry of Public Security,with compared to roughly 27 million in 2004, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Another trend compounding air problems has been the country’s staggering pace of external pageurbanizationcall_made, a national priority. The government aims to have more than external page60 percentcall_made of the Chinese population living in cities by 2020, up from external page36 percentcall_made in 2000 (53.7 percent of the population in 2015 lived in urban areas). external pageRapid urbanizationcall_made increases energy demands to power new manufacturing and industrial centers.

Experts also cite external pagewater depletion and pollutioncall_madeas among the country’s biggest environmental challenges. China is home to 20 percent of the world’s population but only external page7 percent (PDF)call_made of its fresh water sources. Overuse and contamination have produced severe shortages, with nearly 70 percent of the external pagecountry’s water suppliescall_made dedicated to agriculture and and 20 percent of supplies used in the coal industry, according to Choke Point: China, an environmental NGO initiative. Approximately two-thirds of China’s roughly 660 cities suffer from external pagewater shortagescall_made. Former Chinese premier Wen Jiabao has said that water shortages challenge “the external pagevery survivalcall_made of the Chinese nation.”

Industry along China’s major water sources has polluted water supplies: in 2014, groundwater supplies in more than 60 percent of major cities were categorized as “bad to very bad” and more than a quarter of China’s key rivers are “ external pageunfit for human contactcall_made.” And lack of waste removal and proper processing has exacerbated problems. Combined with negligent farming practices, overgrazing, and the effects of climate change, the water crisis has turned much of China’s arable land into desert. About 1.05 million square miles of China’s landmass are undergoing external pagedesertificationcall_made, affecting more than 400 million people, according to the deputy head of China’s State Forestry Administration. Water scarcity, pollution, and desertification are reducing China’s ability to sustain its industrial output and produce food and drinkable water for its large population.

(For an interactive map on emissions of Chinese coal plants, please follow the link provided at the very top)

Cost of Environmental Damage

Environmental depredations pose a serious threat to China’s economic growth, costing the country roughly 3 to 10 percent of its gross national income, according to various estimates. China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection calculates estimates the cost of pollution at around 1.5 trillion RMB ($227 billion), or roughly 3.5 percent of GDP, according to external page2010 figurescall_made. Due to the sensitivity of the topic, the ministry only releases such figures intermittently.

Data on the toll of China’s pollution on public health paint a devastating picture. Air pollution contributes to an estimated external page1.2 million premature deathscall_made in China annually. Epidemiological studies conducted since the 1980s in northern China suggest that poor air quality in Chinese cities causes significant external pagehealth complicationscall_made, including respiratory, cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular diseases. Pollution has also been linked to the proliferation of acute and chronic diseases; estimates suggest that around 11 percent of digestive-system cancers in China may stem from unsafe drinking water.

external pageRecent studiescall_made have reported that emissions from China’s export industries are external pageworsening air pollutioncall_madeas far as the western United States. China’s neighbors, including Japan and South Korea, have also external pageexpressed concerncall_made over acid rain and external pagesmogcall_made affecting their populations. Environmental ministers from the three northeast Asian countries agreed to boost cooperative efforts to curb air pollution and to protect water quality and the maritime environment in 2014.

The damage has also affected China’s economic prospects as it continues to pursue extractive resources abroad, such as oil and other fossil fuels. Its economic partners, particularly in the developing world, face costly external pageenvironmental burdenscall_madeattached with doing business with China, write CFR’s Economy and external pageMichael Levicall_made in external pageBy All Means Necessarycall_made, their book on China’s quest for resources.

Citizen Outrage

Environmental damage has cost China dearly, but the greatest collateral damage for the ruling external pageCommunist Partycall_made has likely been growing social unrest. Demonstrations have proliferated as citizens gain awareness of the health threats and means of organized protest (often using social media). In 2013, Chen Jiping, former leading member of the party’s Committee of Political and Legislative Affairs said that environmental issues are a external pagemajor reasoncall_madefor “mass incidents” in China—unofficial gatherings of one hundred or more that range from peaceful protest to rioting. Environmental protests in external pageruralcall_made and urban areas alike—such as those in external pageGuangdongcall_made, external pageShanghaicall_made,external pageNingbocall_made, and external pageKunmingcall_made—are increasing in frequency. The number of “ external pageabrupt environmental incidentscall_made”, including protests, in 2013 rose to 712 cases, a 31 percent uptick from the previous year.