Pakistan's emerging crises

The political circus is becoming more exciting by the day in Pakistan. Thanks to unflinching US support for the country's unpopular military ruler, retired general Pervez Musharraf, the governing coalition is headed nowhere despite 60 days of power.

The emerging impression that Musharraf's position was weakening following opposition wins in the 18 February general elections has evaporated, with the continuity of his policies and personnel telling an altogether different story.

The restoration of independent-minded judges, sacked by Musharraf in his second coup on 3 November 2007, has become the most contentious issue dividing the key ruling coalition partners – the Pakistan Muslim League, Nawaz group (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP). Ever since the self-imposed 30-day deadline for the restoration of judges expired, the ruling alliance has been teetering on the brink with the PML-N quitting the federal cabinet.

Though the late Benazir Bhutto's party promised a clear departure from the past, the strategy on foreign and defense policy and the judiciary - along with personnel - remain almost the same.

The PPP and PML-N – which agreed on 9 March 2008 to restore the 60 judges sacked by Musharraf within 30 days of forming the government – have developed serious differences on the modalities after Bhutto's widower and new party chief, Asif Ali Zardari, deviated from his initial pledge to support their reinstitution.

While Washington has been credited with building bridges between Musharraf and Zardari, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani has failed to deliver on a single promise made since assuming office.

A 2 June car bomb in Islamabad, in which six people were killed and dozens injured, has added to the prime minister's problems.

Though no group has claimed responsibility for the blast in front of the Danish Embassy, the new government is now faced with the challenge of securing the foreign missions located in the capital's residential areas. Denmark, Sweden and Norway have closed down their embassies in Islamabad for an indefinite period while other western nations are assessing the security situation.

Gillani's government has appeared weak from the start, being run by the corruption-tainted Zardari on one hand and a pro-Musharraf civil and military bureaucracy on the other. Because of this, the prime minister has been unable to move key people to the top of various departments and institutes.

The new Musharraf-Zardari enterprise has resulted in the continuance of previous policies as the military ruler banks on all-out western support to fight a counterterror war in volatile border regions. Bhutto's widower fears restoring an independent-minded judiciary which might re-open his corruption cases - closed as part of a shadowy deal.

Recent months have been marked by a level of hectic US involvement in the country's internal affairs not seen since the Cold War.

"Every time there is a movement towards restoring judges and removing Musharraf, the Americans start meeting our politicians and generals," Aitzaz Ahsan, a politician and constitutional lawyer spearheading the movement for restoration of illegally-sacked judiciary, told ISN Security Watch.

Over half a dozen US congressmen and senators have visited Pakistan over the last 10 days and US Ambassador Anne Peterson flew to the UK to meet self-exiled pro-Musharraf politician, Altaf Hussain, who is wanted for his alleged involvement in murders and kidnappings. It is generally believed that she could successfully convince his party to unconditionally join hands with the PPP in Sindh as well as in the central government.

"The chief justice, along with the other 60-odd defiant judges, has been under illegal house arrest for over 100 days and none of the American dignitaries uttered a single word in support," says Ahsan, who has refused to contest a by-election on the PPP ticket in protest.

Musharraf's deadly bargain

The Bush administration's fixation with Musharraf is costing it more than bad publicity and hatred among the Pakistani public. In addition, the new government's decision to hold talks with tribal militants has rung alarm bells in Washington.

The Pakistani government has entered into talks with tribesmen in the volatile Waziristan and Swat regions, hoping to promote peace through political and socio-economic incentives as military action has failed to deliver the goods in the past.

Gillani has in the past expressed his desire to "work with those elements which are ready to accept the government's writ and shun militancy."

The talks with the anti-US Islamists are being led by Pashtun nationalists – the Awami National Party – dubbed the "Pakistani Gandhi" party for its non-violent philosophy. The political moves have yielded two peace agreements but the process lacks the support of Musharraf and the US.

Violations of Pakistani airspace by US drones operating over towns adjacent to the Afghan border have become a routine affair. On 26 May, a US drone was spotted about 40km into Pakistani territory before later safely returning to Afghanistan. Such over flights often result in missile attacks on alleged Taliban hideouts. Deaths of women and children from drone attacks not only bring embarrassment to the Pakistani government but also justify anti-US sentiments in unstable border regions.

As part of the Waziristan deal, the Pakistani army and the Taliban exchanged prisoners last week. The army has also pulled back from checkpoints around the area which is home to much-feared militant Baitullah Mehsud.

While the new government is struggling to control the Waziristan situation through talks with Mehsud, the Bush administration seeks his arrest and trial.

In a separate accord with local Taliban militants, the Pakistani army will withdraw gradually from Swat, a once-popular resort area in North-West Frontier Province that has become a battleground.

The peace accord, one in a series secured by the new government, calls for the enforcement of Sharia, or Islamic law, in Swat but allows the operation of schools for girls that had been closed down.

The authorities in the province, who are allies of the newly elected federal government, said they would allow the local branch of the umbrella Taliban group, Tehrik-e-Taliban, to help maintain law and order in Swat.

Washington has been showing its dislike for such deals, pressurizing Islamabad for strong-arm tactics, which have been ineffective since 2003.

US Deputy Secretary of State John D Negroponte told the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations last week that the so-called peace deals with militants could provide them with time to organize into a more formidable force.

Even NATO in Afghanistan is opposing Pakistani moves to reach peace deals with Taliban militants. Visiting US congressmen also voiced concerns that Islamabad's peace talks with militants could encourage a rise in attacks in Afghanistan, where 70,000 foreign soldiers are helping to fight an Islamist insurgency.

NATO Spokesman Mark Laity told reporters over the weekend that the Pakistan government's new policy could "put our troops and our mission under threat."

In a rare press conference at an undisclosed location in South Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud vowed to continue jihad in Afghanistan while pursuing peace talks with the new Pakistan government.

Though the US presidency has conveyed its opposition to such deals to the Pakistan government, this has not been done publicly. According to foreign policy analysts, despite persistent British support for talks with the militants, the Bush administration is putting enormous diplomatic pressure on Islamabad so that the government will not achieve its objective of peace through political means.

Testing times for democracy

The new government in Islamabad is not willing to annoy Washington. Amid differences over Taliban policy and the restoration of the sacked judges, the country is abuzz with rumors of another visit by Negroponte, who has met the ruling coalition leader three times since the February election.

New Pakistani ambassador to the US, Hussain Haqqani, will meet US President George W Bush on 5 June in Washington to explain the position of his country's leadership. Haqqani, a former senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC, is acceptable to both Musharraf and Zardari.

Though the isolated PPP has heightened its anti-Musharraf rhetoric for political gains, his impeachment still remains unlikely in the short term. Despite winning a strong public mandate against Musharraf, the party is now acting out of political expediency. Musharraf has re-emerged emboldened, playing on the terror issue yet again, while Zardari is set to compromise on the reinstitution of the sacked judiciary to secure his newfound political profile.

"The restoration of judiciary and peace in tribal regions, both are politically correct things to do," says Ansar Abbasi, investigative editor at The News newspaper. "Musharraf may win a new political life from Zardari but the two are set to confront each other sooner [rather] than later," Abbasi tells ISN Security Warch pointing to the insecurity that surrounds the isolated retired general.

The US may force the Pakistani government to both abandon peace talks in the tribal areas and shelve the restoration of judges who had questioned Musharraf's claim to power. This could promote heightened political upheaval in the person of Nawaz Sharif, a powerful opposition leader ousted in an October 1999 coup.

The political ambitions of Zardari and Musharraf may derail Pakistan's much-needed democratic system, leaving 160 million people at the mercy of anarchists and extremists.

Rifaat Hamid Ghani, a columnist for the Pakistan newspaper Dawn tells ISN Security Watch, "Unfortunately, democratically elected or otherwise, Pakistan's legislature has often used its legislative powers in favor of vested interests and selective party gains."

The best advice came from The New York Times in its 13 May editorial: "The United States must make clear, finally, that its goal is not to keep Mr. Musharraf in office but to help the civilian government survive and prosper."

The Times warned Zardari and Sharif that they "need to remember that the only one likely to gain from the collapse of the coalition government is the man it sought to marginalize: President Musharraf."