No peace dividend for Nepal's guerrillas

After a 10-year "People's War" that helped to end Nepal's powerful Shah dynasty of kings who had ruled the country for over two centuries, the Maoists' guerrilla army is now facing a foe more dreaded than the state's security forces - debt.

"Our People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers are up to their necks in debt," PLA deputy commander Janardan Sharma, known as "Prabhakar" during the underground uprising, told ISN Security Watch.

"They have been borrowing heavily to buy food after the government stopped paying them the monthly allowance it had promised. There's no drinking water in the camps, little electricity and acute shortage of medicine. If the PLA is not rehabilitated, it is going to impact the peace process. There won't be any restructuring of the state [and] there won't be any new Constitution."

The current monsoon exposes the vulnerability of an army that has been corralled in 28 makeshift cantonments since the Maoists signed a peace accord with the government in 2006.

Two brigades of the PLA's 3rd Division, whose camps are in Chitwan district in south Nepal, are endangered by a nearby stream swollen by the torrential rain. The camp shelters leak and the lack of a bridge over the stream has hampered movement, says PLA Brigade Commander "Sapna."

In Badaipur village in Kailali, a remote, inaccessible district in west Nepal where guerrillas of the 7th Division have been barracked, there are regular outbreaks of diarrhoea, fever and pneumonia. Even though the government has promised health care for the camps, there are neither doctors nor drugs.

"The government has forgotten us," says Parwana, a commander in the 1st Division whose combatants have been herded into Chulachuli district in eastern Ilam. "We haven't been paid the promised monthly salary of NRS 3000 (US$45) for the last 13 months. Even the daily food allowance of NRS 60 (US$.08) is grossly inadequate with the spiralling price rise. There are 94 breast-feeding mothers and minors in the camp and we can't get adequate nutrition for them."

Political obstacles block integration

But the darkest cloud hanging over the 19,602-strong guerrilla force (according to UN figures) is the uncertainty about their future. The Maoists signed the peace accord on the condition that the PLA would be integrated into the Nepal army. In the first heady days of the ceasefire, the rebels expected that the merger would take place within six months.

These hopes, however, proved to be ill-founded. Continuous infighting among the parties delayed the critical election that was to have preceded the merger. Though after three false starts, the historic poll was finally held in April this year. A new government has yet to come into effect due to wrangling between the parties over power sharing.

The next step in the merger is the formation of a committee comprising members of the PLA, Nepal army and ministers designated by the government. The committee is to be formed within 15 days of a new cabinet and would have to accomplish the merger in six months.

One of the hurdles could be cleared within two weeks, the expected time frame of the announcement of a new cabinet, as the Maoists, who emerged as the largest party in the April election, have begun consultations to form a coalition government.

However, there are still more obstacles to overcome. After agreeing to the merger between the PLA and Nepal army, caretaker Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala's Nepali Congress (NC) - the second-largest party in the house - is sending mixed signals on the issue.

This month, the rivalry between the NC and the Maoists reached a peak over the country's first presidential elections, which saw the Maoists pitted against a coalition of three parties led by the NC. During the presidential race, NC leader Ram Chandra Poudel, who is also the peace and reconstruction minister overseeing the PLA rehabilitation, voiced his strong misgivings about the Maoists and the integration plan.

"The Maoists have shown themselves to be treacherous and untrustworthy," the minister told the media. "Consequently, we will not induct the PLA into the Nepal army. They will have to be assimilated into other sectors."

The Maoists say the peace accord will be in jeopardy if the NC tries to carry out its threat.

"If the PLA is not merged with the Nepal army, it will violate the peace pact and push the country to the brink of disaster," Sharma told ISN Security Watch. "Is the NC ready to take the blame for that disaster?"

In addition to the reluctant NC, there is also the Nepal army to contend with. Until the fall of monarchy two years ago, the army had solidly supported the palace and ignored the civilian government. Now, following the transformation of Nepal into a republic, though it says it is committed to democracy, the army is nonetheless firmly resisting the plan for an en masse Maoist induction.

"The Nepal army recruits soldiers in accordance with international norms," Army spokesman Brigadier General Ramindra Chhetri told ISN Security Watch. "Recruits have to meet the physical, mental and psychological requirements of the army."

The PLA and the Nepal army have both been accused of torture and other human rights abuses during the 10-year war. The government's inability to form a truth and reconciliation commission after the peace pact and bring the human rights violators on both sides to justice added to the war wounds. A mass-scale merger could trigger revolt within army ranks.

In the last two months, there have been three incidents of mutiny among Nepal's security forces. Though caused by different reasons, the revolts indicate a fraying of the central command.

Combatants' uncertain future

Statistics highlight another challenge to the rehabilitation of the PLA. According to the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) - a political wing of the UN that was invited by the government as well as the Maoists to assist in the thorny peace process by overseeing the arms and armies of both the PLA and Nepal army - there are 19,602 bona fide PLA soldiers.

The UNMIN verification found that there were over 4,000 additional PLA combatants not eligible for the merger and slated instead for discharged. Almost 3,000 of them were recruited as children and the rest were inducted illegally after the signing of the peace pact.

Though verification was completed last December and UNMIN asked for the immediate discharge of the child soldiers, the Maoists have yet to comply. Despite some help from UNICEF, which has volunteered to help rehabilitate the minor soldiers, their fate remains bleak.

Also, according to UNMIN estimates, over 8,600 PLA combatants disappeared from the camps at the start of the verification process and remain at large. They have received military training and could be in possession of arms.

There is a strong possibility that the combatants have been pressed into other Maoist services in violation of the peace pact. This issue raises the spectre of the Maoists retaining a secret army, which could jeopardize the peace process.

International actors want their say

Finally, there is also the danger of intervention from Nepal's powerful donor governments in the proposed merger.

The UN, active in the peace process for almost two years, has been pushing for a greater role. From its present function of keeping watch over the arsenals of the Maoists and the Nepal army, UNMIN now wants a hand in the proposed security sector reform.

In the meantime, Nepal's southern neighbor, India, which has played a covert but strong role in Nepal's political developments, wants UNMIN to pack its bags.

However, despite India's lobbying against UNMIN at the UN Security Council, the UN agency has been given an additional six-month extension. Though it will have to slash its staff by almost 70 percent, UNMIN's continued existence in Nepal will be viewed with wariness by India.

Further afield, London is also interested in Nepal's security reforms. The UK government had invited PLA and Nepal army officials to Bangkok this month for a conference on the reforms, but the event was cancelled due to strong objections from Nepal's prime minister, who stated that the conference had been set up without consulting the Nepal government and that the issue was an internal matter.

The Maoists have issued a warning about the possible repercussions if their renewed consultations this week fail to usher in a new government and the PLA rehabilitation remains in the doldrums.

"Reactionaries want the PLA to disintegrate," Maoist magazine Red Star said in its current issue. "[…] If they try to get rid of the PLA there will be resistance that may lead to civil war. The PLA will have no choice but to take up arms again."