Pakistan in trouble

While Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani was meeting with US President George W Bush and his cabinet members in Washington, the local Taliban militia were busy as well: They set fire to a famous tourist hotel, besieged a police station, blew up a bridge and again closed down schools for girls in the northern Swat Valley.

In the Western Frontier Province, an indefinite curfew has been imposed across the Swat Valley. On 26 June, Taliban forces blew up a ski resort in the valley at Malam Jabba, Pakistan's longest slope and a popular vacation destination.

Two army officers were killed in a shootout in the same area, where the military has remained engaged since November. The most recent chain of events also includes the abduction of 25 security forces personnel by the Taliban after they took over a security post in the Swat Valley on the Afghan border with Pakistan's Northwestern Frontier Province.

Earlier this month, the Pakistani army launched an elaborate military operation to "cleanse Peshawar's adjoining areas from pro-Taliban elements and other anti-state elements." Fresh reports from this region suggest that the over 500 militants equipped with automatic weapons, hand grenades and suicide jackets have since besieged the Dewlai police post, forcing the security personnel to surrender and withdraw to unknown location.

Major General Athar Abbas confirmed for ISN Security Watch via telephone that the 25 members of the police and the Frontier Constabulary had been kidnapped. He could no offer no further details.

The Taliban have claimed responsibility for the recent events, with Muslim Khan (an alias), a spokesman for the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan insurgent group telling Pakistan's daily newspaper, The News that Taliban forces had kidnapped Pakistan security personnel and their release was conditioned on the withdrawal of forces from Swat Valley.

In early July, the provincial capital Peshawar's adjoining Khyber Agency was the center of a high-profile military operation in which security forces arrested scores of alleged local Taliban and destroyed various caches of weapons.

"The operation did not turn bloody as most of the militants had either gone underground or went deep into the tribal areas closer to the Afghan border," says Sher Afgan Khan Niazi, former interior minister in pro-Musharraf cabinet. Speaking to ISN Security Watch via telephone, he said he feared a severe backlash from the operation and that success could only come with the arrest of key militants such as Mulla Fazallulah and Baitullah Mahsud.

While the security officials were rooting out militants from the Khyber Agency, the local Taliban were baring their teeth in another settled area, Hangu, where they attacked police stations, a courthouse and schools for girls.

Avoiding Musharraf's mistakes

For now, the military operation, launched on 10 July, remains suspended as the center and provincial governments wish to give talks another chance.

Awami National Party, which won a majority of seats in the provincial parliament in 18 February polls, is calling for a non-violent solution to Pakistan's Taliban problem. In Islamabad, too, the People's Party of the late Benazir Bhutto is hoping to avoid the mistakes made by President Pervez Musharraf.

Musharraf's earlier deal with forces in the tribal areas effectively handed control over the Pakistan-Afghanistan border areas to the Taliban, giving them time to regroup, re-equip, recruit and retrain. As such, both the US and Afghanistan are weary of "talks" and US incursions into the area are proving more and more unpopular among Pakistanis.

Rehman Malik, internal security adviser to the prime minister, told ISN Security Watch, "The militancy in the tribal areas and some settled areas would be dealt with carrot and stick policy. However, we won't repeat the mistake of abandoning the political process."

"US relations with Pakistan are thawing now with Musharraf not being the sole decision-maker in Islamabad. The biggest foreign policy challenge for the diplomats in Islamabad would be to impress upon the United States the need to win hearts and minds of people while flushing out the local Taliban and other criminals exploiting the situation for their vest interests," former foreign secretary Tanveer Ahmad Khan told ISN Security Watch.

Another embarrassing message for the visiting Pakistani prime minister came from the US Congress, which moved to suspend a bid by the Bush administration to shift millions of dollars in aid to Pakistan from counterterrorism programs to upgrading Islamabad's F-16 fighter jets, AFP reported.

"We have requested a hold on the administration's planned reprogramming pending additional information," a joint statement by Democratic lawmakers Howard Berman and Nita Lowey, who head key panels in the House of Representatives, said.

Washington has just recently completed the delivery of 14 F-16 aircraft it had agreed to provide Pakistan in 2005 under the Foreign Military Sales program, but a more recent agreement of a similar nature is less likely to be signed.

Relations with Afghanistan are also quickly spinning out of control and the two countries continue to trade accusations regarding border infiltration. According to sources, Islamabad has earmarked a significant amount of money to erect a barbed-wire fence along the Afghan border to address Afghan concerns of infiltration.

Pakistan Interior Minister Syed Kamal Shah told ISN Security Watch in a brief telephone interview that the country was doing its best to control the borders, especially on the western side and blamed Afghanistan for not "fulfilling its obligation of stopping the movement it always alleges of happening."

Local sentiments are growing more consolidated against Washington. The opinion of Anwar Iqbal, the Washington correspondent for Pakistan's Dawn newspaper, is a good example of how Pakistanis view their country's alleged role in the Afghan conflict. Speaking to ISN Security Watch, Iqbal said that the White House believes it is Pakistan's "international obligation" in the war on terror "to protect its neighbors as well."

Iqbal says that a new White House fact sheet, issued after a meeting between Gilani and Bush, is markedly different from previous US statements on this issue as it highlights the neighboring states (India and Afghanistan, though without naming the two) threatened by terrorism emanating from Pakistan's tribal areas.

Changing mindset

While moves have been made to consolidate intelligence, in other areas, the public has been sorely disappointed at the new government, which has failed to deliver on day-to-day promises. The last four months have resulted in rising inflation, prices hikes and an unprecedented food shortage.

There is the underlying impression that Musharraf's pressure on the army has meant no change of military mindset since he turned in his uniform. Neither have the judges fired by Musharraf on 3 November for disloyalty been restored as promised by the new ruling coalition, nor have Musharraf's self-assumed powers been tamed.

But the international and regional fronts are even more complex. With the Hangu operation halted and renewed trouble in Swat Valley, the government has no option but to come up with a clear strategy to deal with the local Taliban and to appease its neighbors, Indian, Afghanistan, and most importantly, the US.

Islamabad will have to finally deconstruct the maze of Talibanisation, lawlessness and incompetence before the country collapses.