The Prague-Washington swindle

In some ways Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek has surpassed the swindlers of the late 19th century who managed to sell the Brooklyn Bridge to gullible innocents. He has managed to convince his American suitors - and most of the international media - that he can bring home a parliamentary majority on a radar station that does not exist and might now never exist.

During the recent NATO summit in Bucharest, the US and the Czech Republic announced that they had ironed out the details of a deal to place a radar station in a town 90 kilometers southwest of Prague, a key part of US plans to build a missile defense shield in Europe against rogue states.

The Czechs were also beaming over the alliance's pledge to integrate future missile-defense projects into a broader NATO system, a supposed breakthrough that would help convince naysayers back home who are urging a multilateral solution over simply a bilateral agreement. Soon after the summit, Czech and US officials triumphantly announced that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice would journey to Prague in May to sign an agreement.

Buried at the bottom of news stories - or not mentioned at all - was the reality that the agreement will be worth nothing without parliamentary approval in the Czech Republic. According to Czech law, both houses of parliament and the president must approve any deployment of foreign troops on Czech territory.

Instead, a major obstacle highlighted in the press continued to be Russia's opposition to basing such a station in one of its former satellites, an argument that has caused cold feet in several European capitals that fear antagonizing Moscow.

While the notion of a "new" Cold War makes headlines and petty parliamentary mathematics does not, it is the latter and not the former that appears more likely to derail all these grand plans.

Elections in June 2006 ended in a tie between the two main left- and right-wing camps in the Czech Republic. It took seven long months of unsuccessful wheeling and dealing for a working coalition to get approval in parliament in January 2007. That happened only after two independents, originally members of the Social Democrats, agreed to abstain from the vote.

Ever since then, the coalition - the Civic Democrats (ODS), the Christian Democrats (KDU–ČSL), and the Green Party (SZ) - has depended on those two independents to pass major legislation in the lower house. No such problems exist in the Senate, the upper house, where ODS has a majority.

The country's political culture is in such a sad state that even on issues of crucial national importance - such as this past year's reforms in the tax, health and social sectors - there is virtually no consultation between those in power and the opposition. A particularly strong animosity reigns between the country's two major parties and their heads: ODS, led by Topolanek; and the Social Democrats (CSSD), led by former Prime Minister Jiri Paroubek.

With the issue of the radar station, the situation has been the same. No serious attempts to build consensus on such a nationally vital topic - which gets at the heart of the country's international ambitions and identity - have taken place.

One can understand the reluctance of the coalition to appeal to the Communist Party, still largely unreformed but holding a chunk of seats in the powerful lower house of parliament. Little chance exists for any communist legislator to vote for an agreement that brings the country closer to the US or integrates the Czech Republic even further into NATO.

However, it would have made much sense to sit down at the table with the Social Democrats and at least try to come to an understanding. The party has come out against the radar station, claiming almost 90 percent of CSSD members expressed opposition in internal party polls. But it has also pushed for a referendum, saying it would respect even a positive decision.

Social Democratic leaders also still admit that a few of their deputies wouldn't mind seeing the radar station become reality.

But with Paroubek as always eyeing public opinion (two-thirds of those asked in opinion polls remain opposed), and willing to do anything to topple the government, the CSSD is dead set against the agreement and will surely not budge from its position. Paroubek has promised to pass a resolution binding CSSD deputies to vote a certain way.

Any rebellious deputies have only to look back several months to see what happens to anyone who doesn't fall into line. The lone Social Democrat who voted for the re-election of President Vaclav Klaus - the founder of the hated ODS - faced accusations of corruption and pure vitriol from party leaders. He was subsequently kicked out of the party.

At the same time, support - any support - from the opposition would come in handy, because the governing coalition can hardly count on its friendly independents, hesitating in this case, or even its own deputies. One Christian Democrat, known as a party rebel, says he stills wants to study the agreement before committing. Last year, he voted along with the opposition in favor of a motion to hold a referendum on the issue.

If that wasn't bad enough, several days after the summit, the Green Party's national council called on the party's deputies to vote against any agreement on placing the station on Czech soil. Two deputies have long expressed their reservations over the plan and said nothing new from Bucharest had changed their stance. Even one of the party's deputy chairmen has refrained in throwing his support behind the radar base.

The Czech weekly Respekt ran an editorial on 6 April lambasting the Greens, saying "the smallest governing party has before our eyes changed from being a governing party into a bunch of unaccountable and irresponsible activists."

The magazine has charged that the party's calls for a binding US guarantee that the radar facilities will be under NATO command, as well as support from the EU, only mask a wellspring of anti-Americanism and a belief among the party's foreign policy experts that a missile shield is unnecessary because no threats are imminent.

On 13 April, a top ODS official said on Czech Television that government supporters would not simply "walk over" their opponents and send an agreement to parliament without pre-negotiating support beforehand.

That suggests a belated understanding that consensus-building should be a top priority. But it may be too late, and both Topolanek and Washington better be thinking of a back-up plan.