Angola: A vote for the books

Angolans go to the polls 5 September for the first time in 16 years to determine the outcome of a legislative election of historical significance. In a country bloodied by 27 years of a civil war that ended as late as 2002, the vote will be more than a symbolic matter. It could determine whether the country slips back into violence or marches toward its regional ambitions.

The elections will be the chance for 8.3 million registered voters to choose their 220 new representatives from among 5,198 candidates selected from the 10 parties and four coalitions authorized to compete by the country's Constitutional Court.

Though ruling President Jose Eduardo dos Santos' Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) is expected to win most of the seats in Angola's parliament, or Assembleia Nacional, it will nevertheless have to face a flurry of opposition movements that include its long-time and once-violent enemy, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA).

Who can do the job?

Most analysts assess that the MPLA will have no trouble preserving its position in the face of a vocal, yet unimpressive opposition.

Indeed, despite recent steps toward democratic rule, Angola's political structure remains highly unbalanced in favor of the presidency. This state-centric legacy, which dates back to the MPLA's Marxist origins and 2002 military victory over UNITA, has allowed dos Santos to reap most of the country's oil benefits with little independent oversight, thereby giving him access to unlimited political resources.

As Dr Edward George, an economist in the Africa department of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), told ISN Security Watch: "The party is playing on the population's fears that the building boom - which is reaching frenzied proportions as the administration races to complete key projects before polling day - could be put in jeopardy if the MPLA is voted out of office."

However, the MPLA's election strategy is not based solely on economic leverage.

Instead, the party has also attempted to capitalize on its experience as sole leader of the country's post-war reconstruction efforts. "Thousands of kilometers of road have been repaired, and bridges, schools and hospitals constructed across the whole country. People are starting to feel the benefit of these new infrastructure projects and this is likely to help the MPLA," Indira Campos, head of the British-Angola Forum at the London-based think tank Chatham House, told ISN Security Watch:

Last month, one of the party's first secretaries spoke at a regional rally to remind voters that "any change now would hinder the ongoing national reconstruction process countrywide."

In fact, there is a chance many Angolans will hear that message 5 September as they cast their ballots. Indeed, despite much criticism of, and disappointment with the current government, it remains uncertain how much the opposition could offer voters.

The National Union for the Total Independence of Angola is the MPLA's only viable opponent, with 54 seats in the current National Assembly against the ruling party's 129 representatives. However, even this once-powerful threat to the country's Luanda-based elite is in dire conditions.

Unlike dos Santos, Isaias Samakuva, the opposition party's current leader, has had to rely on a relatively narrow and underprivileged social base, which has hampered his ability to run a truly challenging nationwide campaign over the past few months.

In addition, as George told ISN Security Watch, "The party remains untested in government, and its reputation has been tarnished by numerous defections and break-away factions over the last five years."

Just a couple weeks ago, leading papers such as the Jornal de Angola and O Apostolado reported that one of UNITA's founding members, former tourism minister Jorge Valentim, had himself turned against his party and called on Angolans to support the ruling president.

True problems call for true solutions

Nevertheless, despite its weak - and weakening - position as a mainstream political party, UNITA's prospects for scoring in the elections could be enhanced by one saddening factor: the country's widespread economic misery.

Angola has benefited from two-digit growth rates for the past several years, becoming the continent's fastest growing market. It even temporarily surpassed terror-riddled Nigeria in becoming Africa's first oil producer this past spring.

However, the country remains far below the continent's already gloomy average development indexes such as life expectancy and infant mortality.

Overall, it is estimated approximately 70 percent of the country's population survives on less than US$2 per day, which has led UNITA's leader, Isaias Samakuva, to focus his campaign efforts on the themes of social peace and justice, promoting domestic labor force over Chinese workers and choosing the not-so-unfamiliar motto of "vote for change."

And in fact, this approach may be the opposition's only chance of shaking dos Santos' longstanding grip on power.

But even on such sensitive issues as poverty and social inequalities, it seems the MPLA has thought out its arguments and strategies, promising to build over one million new houses for the country's poorest and translating its radio messages in local vernacular languages in an attempt to reach out to all of the country's 18 voting districts - including the rural areas where it has historically been contested.

A repressive touch

With traumatizing memories of the civil war that plagued their country for over a quarter century in mind, most Angolans want to make the 5 September election as smooth as possible. This has been evidenced over the months by the numerous calls for peace and tolerance made by local chieftains, religious leaders as well as by MPLA, UNITA and other political officials.

Dos Santos himself called in early August for Angolans to "frustrate those who without any reason believe that these elections are doomed," by proceeding in a "serene and peaceful climate" toward this "unprecedented step in the normalization of [the country's] political institutions and democracy."

UNITA's Samakuva followed suit the next day, encouraging his fellow countrymen to "make these elections an example for Africa and [for] the world."

Tensions remain high, however, before the big day that will tell observers whether Angola is capable of moving forward in its reconciliation and reconstruction efforts.

Last winter, the tomb of Jonas Savimbi, UNITA's former leader whose execution by the Angolan army put an end to the country's civil war in 2002, was desecrated. Although the incident has since been swept off most analysts' radar, it is not a good precedent and can be seen as an example of the sparks that could lead to an all out burst if the election's results become contentious.

Another factor that surely will not help maintain peace 5 September and the days after is the use dos Santos has made of the judiciary and police to pressure opposition groups over the past few months.

In mid-August, Human Rights Watch published a external pagefive-page accountcall_made of what it described as "numerous incidents of political violence involving ruling party supporters" leading to a "lack of accountability [that] has eroded Angolans' trust in the police [… and] reinforces the perception of local ruling party supporters to have the police on their side."

Though the MPLA immediately demanded that the organization "not interfere with Angola's internal affairs," it did accept approximately 100 EU election monitors to deploy to the country's 18 districts from where they will be watching the events carefully.

Overall, however, as one diplomat told the Inter Press Service:"We're not talking about organized intimidation campaigns."

George, with the EIU, confirms this judgment by saying that "it would be more accurate to describe the situation as sustained pressure on the opposition, but it has not reached anywhere near the level of the abuses we saw in Zimbabwe or Kenya."

Asked whether or not violence could erupt 5 September, he told ISN Security Watch that "the danger lies in the issuing of official results. If there is any suspicion that the government has manipulated the results, especially if polling is unexpectedly close, then anger could give way to violence, particularly in Luanda and UNITA's core areas of support [Huambo and Bie provinces]."

"But if the elections are ruled free and fair, then the likelihood is very low," he adds.

Campos is even more straightforward in declaring that "a return to civil war is unlikely" and that "unless there is direct and obvious fraud [or the perception thereof], violence would be restricted to some hotspots where the outcomes are close and campaigning was vigorous, and will probably not last for too long."

Marching forward

In the end, it is in no-one's interest for the elections to go sour.

As one ruling official put it a few months ago during a conference in Portugal: "Angola is living through a period of political and economic stability and that stability is a precious good for Angolans."

Surely it is even more precious to dos Santos and his team, who have benefited over the years from investments by Chinese, French, Portuguese, Brazilian and other investors alike.

According to Stratfor, a political risk analysis consultancy, the election is part of the president's plans for increasing his legitimacy both within and outside Angola's borders ahead of a presidential campaign scheduled for 2009.

According to George, "The MPLA is widely expected to win [… and] if it can increase its majority in the National Assembly to two-thirds, then it can change the constitution according to its will, which is the main aim of this election for the MPLA."

To be sure, the MPLA has used the run-up to the 5 September election to reinforce its presence in rural areas as well as in the country's oil-rich Cabinda province, which continues to be riddled with separatist claims that could hamper Angola's rise to the status of continental power, on par with South Africa and Nigeria.

Likewise, dos Santos has used a both voluntary and forced disarmament campaign to limit the risk of potential discontent leading his country back into civil war. Thanks to this initiative, more than 10,000 firearms were collected throughout the campaign, which is an unquestionable boon to the presidency.

The question is: will Angolans leave the polling stations with the thought that they will never need those weapons again, or will they rush home to grab and use those they had not handed in?