Sri Lanka: War far from over

As Sri Lankan military closes in on LTTE strongholds, some question the government's claims of success against the rebel group.

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) have suffered a series of reverses on the battlefield over the past year. First, in July 2007, they lost control of the multi-ethnic eastern province to the Sri Lankan government. Now, the country's military is at the rebel group's doorstep in the north, making rapid advances into LTTE-controlled territory. The rebels have lost several top leaders and hundreds of cadres over the past year. In addition, their conventional military capability is being systematically destroyed.

 

Over the past month, a string of towns and LTTE bases in the north have fallen into government hands. The military recently captured two key rebel strongholds: Tunnukai and, more importantly, Mallavi.

These towns, which lie along the Vellankulama-Mankulama main road linking the Mannar-Pooneryn (A-32) main road and the Kandy-Jaffna (A-9) trunk road, were strategically important for the LTTE. Believed to be the birthplace of Tamil Tiger leader Velupillai Prabhakaran's wife, Mallavi was used as the hub of the LTTE's administration and logistic activities and housed several offices. The Sri Lankan military says it is now only a few kilometers away from Kilinochchi, the Tiger's political headquarters.

 

On 9 September, the Sri Lankan air force shot down an LTTE light aircraft plane in rebel-held territory over the thick jungle near Mullaittivu: the first time the Sri Lankan military has shot down a rebel aircraft.

The LTTE has a rudimentary air force which operates from jungle airstrips. They are believed to have a number of small Czech-built, two-seater, propeller-driven Zlin-143 aircraft, which have so far carried out six attacks on military instillations, including those in Colombo and Trincomallee.

Now, with the upcoming onset of the northeast monsoons, battles between the Sri Lankan armed forces and the LTTE are bound to become bloodier as soldiers close in on Kilinochchi.

 

The LTTE has been unusually quiet as of late about the military's claims, and with journalists barred from the conflict zone, they cannot be independently verified. But, for the first time in many months, they admitted last week that they were under a external pageline of fire from the Sri Lankan military in the heart of Kilinochchi.

Sri Lanka: Peace through the LTTE's demise

The LTTE has spent more than two decades fighting the government of Sri Lanka in an attempt to create a Tamil homeland in the north and east of the Indian Ocean island. With its bloody history, not many believed a military solution to the conflict was ever possible. But with its recent military successes in the north and east, the government says it is determined to obliterate Tigers before the end of this year.

 

The key question is: Even if the Sri Lankan government manages to capture Kilinochchi - which has been in rebel control since November 1998 - will the victory spell the end of the LTTE?

 

Taking into account the violent history of the Tamil struggle in Sri Lanka, the fear is that if the LTTE is routed and driven out of areas under its control, a large segment of the group may resort to terrorist attacks across the country.  Even with the military successes, it is nearly impossible for the Sri Lankan government to eliminate the Tamil political and militancy problems without a negotiated settlement.

 

Already in the "liberated" east of the island, from where the Tigers were pushed out, there has been a surge in killings in recent weeks, allegedly the work of infiltrating Tiger guerrillas.  

 

Even so, President Mahinda Rajapaksa's government has repeatedly given an impression that peace in Sri Lanka would return only if the rebels were eradicated completely, believing that once the LTTE is destroyed, the Tamil minority would automatically join the democratic mainstream.

 

But that might just be wishful thinking.

Tamil rights key to ending conflict?

"The battle is not between the LTTE and the government," a Tamil journalist based in Colombo told ISN Security Watch on the condition of anonymity. "It is between two communities. Unless you resolve the long-standing disputes between them, peace will remain elusive. Unless there is a process of devolution of powers to the Tamils and Tamils are given their rights in this country, the war will never be over.

 

"There is a great deal of sullenness Tamils in Sri Lanka," he added.

 

The journalist recalled the forced eviction of close to 400 Tamils from Colombo by the government in June last year. Late into the night, soldiers raided areas populated by Tamils. "People were herded into buses like cattle and driven out of the city," he told ISN Security Watch. 

"It is such brutality that pits government forces against Tamil-separatist militants in the country's north. Unless the government gives Tamils a feeling they have the right to their own destiny in many matters, they will not succeed."

 

Sri Lanka's Supreme Court brought the evictions to a halt the day after the first raid, issuing an order in response to a case filed by Colombo-based think-tank Centre for Policy Alternatives.

Public support for military action

Meanwhile, as fighting rages in the north, Tamil civilians pay the price. A recent UN Inter-Agency Standing Committee report estimates that in the northwest region, nearly 19,000 families have been displaced since June due to the conflict.

Also according to the report, at least 35,350 families have been displaced in the LTTE-controlled central-north area. UN officials in Sri Lanka say they have moved into Kilinochchi district, which is still under the LTTE control.

 

In addition, Sri Lanka's government announced on 9 September a ban on foreign aid workers from working in Tamil-rebel held areas in the north. Sri Lankan Defense Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, who is also the president's brother, said Colombo could no longer guarantee the safety of aid workers in the area.

 

Sri Lanka's powerful neighbor, India, hamstrung by the assassination of former prime minister, Rajiv Gandhi in 1991 by an LTTE suicide bomber, has largely refrained from becoming involved in the conflict. 

 

But Indian National Security Advisor M K Narayanan recently told a Singapore-based newspaper that, "The [Sri Lankan Army] has made a lot of progress in the last few weeks. But even if they win the battle I am not sure they will win the war. I think they haven't got the Tamil population on their side."

 

Also, during his recent visit to Colombo to attend the SAARC summit, the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, "Sri Lanka should work out a formula which allows for maximum devolution of power to the ethnic Tamils in the north of the island country."

 

The Sri Lankan government has not taken to this advice kindly. The president, unmoved by international opinion, is buoyed by enormous public support for the war from the majority Sinhalese community. The convincing victory for Sri Lanka's ruling coalition, the United People's Freedom Alliance, in three provincial elections, is seen by Rajapakse as public endorsement for his military mission.

 

A recent external pagesurvey by the Center for Policy Alternatives in Sri Lanka, a large majority of people are nursing increased expectations of permanent peace.

 

Unbothered by sky-rocketing inflation and an expanded war budget, and swayed by the Sri Lankan government's recent military successes, a large number of Sinhalese, including moderates, hold the view that wiping out the Tigers is a panacea for all their woes.

 

According to the survey just under half of the Sinhala community, 48 percent, supports the defeat of the LTTE while only 16 percent support a cease fire and peace talks.

 

But for a clear majority of Tamils surveyed (83 percent), the way to end the conflict and attain peace in Sri Lanka is to stop the war and hold political negotiations.

Government reports of success questioned


Since Rajapaksa came to power, the strength of the army has gone up from 120,000 to 140,000 soldiers. Despite the successes claimed by the Sri Lankan military, by its own admission, more than 3,000 Sri Lankan soldiers have been arrested for deserting the army in recent months.

 

As one Colombo-based military analyst pointed out, "Why are so many Lankan soldiers deserting the army if they are handsomely winning this war, as they claim?"

 

The Sri Lankan army is believed to be suffering immense losses at the hands of the LTTE. Local journalists, on condition of anonymity, say the government is under-reporting its own losses, while inflating the number of Tiger casualties.

 

"If you add up the number of Tiger casualties the government reports every day, the whole population of the north would have been wiped out twice by now," a Colombo-based military analyst told ISN Security Watch.

 

"The truth is, the Sri Lankan government is misleading its people."

 

However, with the near total absence of any international pressure on Sri Lanka to stop waging war, there are virtually no impediments in Rajapakse's path.

 

"2008 is a strange year for Sri Lanka," the analyst told ISN Security Watch. "It is election year in [the US], and India will soon enter election season. It is possible elections will bring a new government and new international policy vis-à-vis Sri lanka. These are virtually the only two countries that could exert pressure on the Sri Lankan government, but they currently choose to look the other way."

JavaScript has been disabled in your browser