Czechs grapple with radar deal
By Jeremy Druker for ISN
Opposed by a majority of Czech citizens and the largest civic movement in years, the agreement with Washington has left coalition politicians and analysts counting the possible "yes" votes and wondering if the agreement would squeak through the lower house or not. The station, to be located in a town 90 kilometers southwest of Prague, is a key part of US plans to build a missile defense shield in Europe against rogue states.
Now, according to the Czech business daily, Hospodářské noviny (HN), the government has a plan, and one that might just work. In an article published on 17 September, the newspaper outlined Prime Minister Mirek Topolonek's strategy, which includes holding the first parliamentary reading of the radar agreement in October, probably after local and Senate elections. At that point, the opposition would ostensibly no longer need the radar issue as a pre-election talking point and might be more moderate in its negative attitude.
Some moderation could go a long way because the government's lawyers have now concluded that the radar treaty is similar to any other international treaty, meaning a simple majority of those present in parliament would be sufficient for passage. (According to Czech law, both houses of parliament and the president must approve any deployment of foreign troops on Czech territory.)
That may sound like boring legalese, but that interpretation is critical. Much of the debate over the likelihood of parliamentary approval has revolved around various question marks in two coalition parties - the Green Party and the Christian Democrats - and among a few possible rebels in the opposition Social Democrats (CSSD). Would the government really be able to rally 101 votes given the outright opposition of some coalition deputies and the wavering support of others?
Those doubts were heightened over this past week as two deputies from the ruling Civic Democratic Party defected from the party's parliamentary faction - although they denied that they would start to vote with the opposition. The three-party government's official support thus now stands at 99 of parliament's 200 seats.
The notion of a simple majority could, however, tempt some CSSD deputies that have expressed support for the radar system to simply call in "sick" and indirectly help the cause, an old trick among Czech parliamentarians during key votes in the past. They would likely still come under the wrath of the impetuous CSSD chairman, Jiri Paroubek, who has threatened to expel any member voting for the radar station. But, post-election, Paroubek might be a bit more merciful.
Already Paroubek has backtracked on a threat to call for a constitutional majority (120 votes) to approve the treaty. "It's not necessary- the government doesn't even have 101 votes for the radar," he told HN.
The lawyers have conceded that a qualified majority, would, however, be necessary for the second agreement signed with Washington - a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) deal on the stationing of foreign soldiers on Czech territory. The government approved that agreement on 10 September, and it will be officially signed on 19 September in London by US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Czech Defense Minister Vlasta Parkanová. The SOFA would only reach parliament during the second reading of the main radar deal in December, also for tactical purposes.
HN speculated that the government was betting on December for several reasons. With US President George W Bush already on his way out the door, some Czech deputies might be less likely, in knee-jerk fashion, to reject the unpopular president's pet project. And the government is probably hoping that an informal meeting of NATO defense ministers in October will issue a statement indicating when and how the radar would be integrated into NATO structures - a condition for the support of some Green and CSSD deputies.
Meanwhile, the collective heads of the Czech public must be spinning with the amount of radar-related information floating about these days.
On one hand, the benefits of cooperating of the US have already started trickling in. Czech Deputy Foreign Minister Tomas Pojar was in Washington earlier this month meeting top officials at the State Department, as the Czech Republic joined a select group of countries around the world privileged to engage in a "strategic dialogue" with the US. He also lobbied for assistance to upgrade the Czech military's fleet of transport planes.
Later this month, the US Missile Defense Agency should also release the first subsidy for Czech scientific research projects, part of one of the bilateral deals signed along with the main radar agreements.
On the other hand, Russian officials have continued to make provocative statements about the consequences of hosting the radar station. The Kremlin has been infuriated by the radar plans and the related placement of missile interceptors across the border in Poland, saying the system is aimed at containing Russia and runs counter to Moscow's strategic interests.
On 10 September, Russian General Nikolai Solovtsov, head of strategic missile forces, repeated Russian threats to target the installation in the Czech Republic and the 10 missile interceptors that will be based in Poland, now that Warsaw has also signed up to the shield project.
"I cannot rule out that, in case the top military-political leadership makes such a decision, both the missile defense facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic and other similar facilities in the future could be designated as targets for our ICBMs," said Solovtsov, according to AP, in turn citing ITAR-Tass and Interfax.
With no new polls of Czech public opinion, it's unclear what affect those fighting words have had. The same goes for the Russian-Georgian war. Topolanek has called the conflict over South Ossetia the best campaign for the radar station, but others may have now concluded that Russia is fully capable of backing up its blustering image.
One of the main arguments all along from the anti-radar camp is that Russia isn't worth provoking.
Now, according to the Czech business daily, Hospodářské noviny (HN), the government has a plan, and one that might just work. In an article published on 17 September, the newspaper outlined Prime Minister Mirek Topolonek's strategy, which includes holding the first parliamentary reading of the radar agreement in October, probably after local and Senate elections. At that point, the opposition would ostensibly no longer need the radar issue as a pre-election talking point and might be more moderate in its negative attitude.
Some moderation could go a long way because the government's lawyers have now concluded that the radar treaty is similar to any other international treaty, meaning a simple majority of those present in parliament would be sufficient for passage. (According to Czech law, both houses of parliament and the president must approve any deployment of foreign troops on Czech territory.)
That may sound like boring legalese, but that interpretation is critical. Much of the debate over the likelihood of parliamentary approval has revolved around various question marks in two coalition parties - the Green Party and the Christian Democrats - and among a few possible rebels in the opposition Social Democrats (CSSD). Would the government really be able to rally 101 votes given the outright opposition of some coalition deputies and the wavering support of others?
Those doubts were heightened over this past week as two deputies from the ruling Civic Democratic Party defected from the party's parliamentary faction - although they denied that they would start to vote with the opposition. The three-party government's official support thus now stands at 99 of parliament's 200 seats.
The notion of a simple majority could, however, tempt some CSSD deputies that have expressed support for the radar system to simply call in "sick" and indirectly help the cause, an old trick among Czech parliamentarians during key votes in the past. They would likely still come under the wrath of the impetuous CSSD chairman, Jiri Paroubek, who has threatened to expel any member voting for the radar station. But, post-election, Paroubek might be a bit more merciful.
Already Paroubek has backtracked on a threat to call for a constitutional majority (120 votes) to approve the treaty. "It's not necessary- the government doesn't even have 101 votes for the radar," he told HN.
The lawyers have conceded that a qualified majority, would, however, be necessary for the second agreement signed with Washington - a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) deal on the stationing of foreign soldiers on Czech territory. The government approved that agreement on 10 September, and it will be officially signed on 19 September in London by US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Czech Defense Minister Vlasta Parkanová. The SOFA would only reach parliament during the second reading of the main radar deal in December, also for tactical purposes.
HN speculated that the government was betting on December for several reasons. With US President George W Bush already on his way out the door, some Czech deputies might be less likely, in knee-jerk fashion, to reject the unpopular president's pet project. And the government is probably hoping that an informal meeting of NATO defense ministers in October will issue a statement indicating when and how the radar would be integrated into NATO structures - a condition for the support of some Green and CSSD deputies.
Meanwhile, the collective heads of the Czech public must be spinning with the amount of radar-related information floating about these days.
On one hand, the benefits of cooperating of the US have already started trickling in. Czech Deputy Foreign Minister Tomas Pojar was in Washington earlier this month meeting top officials at the State Department, as the Czech Republic joined a select group of countries around the world privileged to engage in a "strategic dialogue" with the US. He also lobbied for assistance to upgrade the Czech military's fleet of transport planes.
Later this month, the US Missile Defense Agency should also release the first subsidy for Czech scientific research projects, part of one of the bilateral deals signed along with the main radar agreements.
On the other hand, Russian officials have continued to make provocative statements about the consequences of hosting the radar station. The Kremlin has been infuriated by the radar plans and the related placement of missile interceptors across the border in Poland, saying the system is aimed at containing Russia and runs counter to Moscow's strategic interests.
On 10 September, Russian General Nikolai Solovtsov, head of strategic missile forces, repeated Russian threats to target the installation in the Czech Republic and the 10 missile interceptors that will be based in Poland, now that Warsaw has also signed up to the shield project.
"I cannot rule out that, in case the top military-political leadership makes such a decision, both the missile defense facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic and other similar facilities in the future could be designated as targets for our ICBMs," said Solovtsov, according to AP, in turn citing ITAR-Tass and Interfax.
With no new polls of Czech public opinion, it's unclear what affect those fighting words have had. The same goes for the Russian-Georgian war. Topolanek has called the conflict over South Ossetia the best campaign for the radar station, but others may have now concluded that Russia is fully capable of backing up its blustering image.
One of the main arguments all along from the anti-radar camp is that Russia isn't worth provoking.