Pakistan: Groping in the dark

A suicide attack on the Marriott Hotel and the kidnapping of the Afghan ambassador may be precursors to increased violence as Pakistan's new coalition government struggles for survival, Naveed Ahmad reports for ISN Security Watch from Islamabad.

A suicide bombing in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad has killed at least 60 people, wounded more than 300 others and reduced the Marriott Hotel, the city's best-known landmark among visitors, to blackened rooms, cracked walls, melted metal and piles of debris.

Dozens remain missing, with speculation that they were killed in the ensuing deadly chemical inferno that raged for 14 hours after the Saturday truck bombing.

Among the dead in the incident – the worst terrorist incident in Pakistan's history – were at least six foreigners, including recently appointed Czech Ambassador to Pakistan Ivo Zdarek, two US marines, a Danish intelligence agent and Egyptian Telecom professional Tariq Foda. Some news reports said that the Pakistani president was originally scheduled to dine at the hotel on Saturday, but had changed venues at the last minute.

Interior ministry chief Rehman Malik said the "whole leadership was saved" by the switch ahead of Saturday's devastating attack, including President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, and military top brass.

On Monday, rescue workers announced the completion of their search operation in the five-storey luxury hotel, while engineers declared the building's foundation and structure safe for use with the exception of the top two floors.

CCTV footage shows a loading truck stopping at the hotel's entrance barrier, followed by a small blast killing the truck's driver and eventually igniting an assortment of explosives - cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine (RDX), trinitrotoluene (TNT), artillery rounds and aluminum powder. It was a deadly mixture of chemicals used in plastic-bonded explosives to increase intensity and shatter concrete structures.

The powerful blast left a 30-foot deep and 60-foot wide crater on the site, burying the remains of the truck, a dozen security guards and sniffer dogs.

The suicide bomber had little trouble reaching his target as Pakistanis were busy breaking their 14-hour-long fast at sunset, a time of negligible surveillance.

While the loud bang and ensuing energy waves smashed window panes in a four-kilometer radius, the aluminum powder sprinkled with the explosion set alight two rooms in the third and fifth floors of the Marriott Hotel. Lack of preparedness and high-tech equipment helped the fire spread wildly throughout the 298-room hotel, leaving dozens stranded in their rooms, lobbies and escalators.

Since 9/11, the luxury Marriott Hotels - and the American lifestyle they symbolize - have been soft targets for terrorists in many Muslim countries, including Pakistan and Indonesia.

Rehman Malik, advisor to Pakistani premier on internal security, told ISN Security Watch during a tour of the devastated hotel that the building could have collapsed had the security guards failed to stop the truck at the entrance gate barrier.

A senior official privy to the investigation process told this correspondent that there was little chance of reconstructing the face of the suicide bomber. The source, requesting anonymity, observed that forensic experts could not go beyond determining the nature of explosives used and the detonating system adopted. "Finding any more clues from such devastating explosion are impossible."

Though neither al-Qaida nor the Taliban have claimed the responsibility for the suicide attack, Islamabad blames Islamic extremists in the country's Afghan-bordering tribal areas, where Pakistani and coalition troops remain engaged in military operations against the Taliban.

Primary target?

Another official, who specializes in terrorist investigations, told ISN Security Watch that the explosion was aimed at collapsing the parliament building, thought to be the primary target of the suicide mission. However, the official believes that the plan was aborted due to extensive security measures adopted for the maiden presidential address to the Parliament and that the Marriott was chosen as a secondary target.

Though the government has turned down a US offer for technical assistance in the investigation, it has formed a high-powered joint investigation team comprising local experts from the Inter-Services Intelligence, Military Intelligence, Central Information Department and Intelligence Bureau.

Malik told ISN Security Watch: "I don't think that any government can totally eliminate such terrorist incidents […] the security measures evolved over the years resulted in averting the truck ramming into the building and claiming hundreds of lives in case of building collapse."

The Interior Ministry is struggling to trace the perpetrators of the suicide blast to tribal areas, while independent experts find strange similarities with the last many terrorist acts. Though the use of aluminum powder is unprecedented, RDX, TNT and C4 have been within terrorists' reach for the last few years.

"The most disturbing aspect of the terrorist attack remains the perpetrators' access to hi-grade explosives and their ability to put them to 'effective' use," says a key official of the Interior Ministry's counterterror division.

The lone incident has not only shaken the country's image abroad - exposing its inability to check such intruders in its highest security zones - but also has brought the rupee falling to a record low against the dollar, hotel reservations decreasing to half and foreign investors leaving the country on the earliest flights. More foreign airlines are likely follow suit after British Airways cancelled its operations to and from Pakistani destinations.

Pakistani Law Minister Farooq Naek, whose own house in the minister's enclave bore heavy damage from the explosion, dubbed Saturday's attack as "Pakistan's 9/11."

Ershad Mahmud, an Islamabad-based expert on Pakistani security, told ISN Security Watch: "The tragedy is a grim reminder that seven years after 9/11, the world has not become any safer nor a frontline ally in anti-terror war is well-equipped to deal with the threat."

The government has decided to install big scanners at key points in the capital to detect explosives-laden vehicles, similar to those provided by Washington for the Karachi port. Such scanners would later be installed on key highways, motorways and entrances of important cities.

The Pakistani daily The News quoted intelligence officials, who suggest the possible involvement of a banned militant outfit - Harkatul Jehadul Islami (HUJI), led by Qari Saifullah Akhtar. The HUJI was held responsible for similar attacks in Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad.

From bad to worse

Also on Monday, the Afghan ambassador to Pakistan, Abdul Khaliq Farahi, was kidnapped. The ambush, allegedly by the Taliban, in Peshawar left the ambassador's driver dead. The incident could further strain Afghanistan-Pakistan relations.
 
The terrorists have targeted Pakistan at a time when the country's relations with the US are at their lowest ebb since September 2001.

Late on Sunday, Pakistani troops reportedly fired at two US gunship helicopters in the restive North Waziristan Agency (NWA), forcing them to fly back to Afghanistan.

Pakistan's new democratically elected government repeatedly has called on the US to stop violating its air space and land frontiers.

Rahimullah Yousafzai, a Peshawar-based journalist and commentator, believes that such violations in hot pursuit by ISAF/NATO troops will make it difficult for Pakistani troops to man the border and conduct military operation in troubled regions bordering Afghanistan.

Contrarily, Ayesha Siddiqa Agha, security expert and author of Military Inc, says the ISAF/NATO attacks in the Pakistani territory may not end, even after the US elections, which many Pakistanis blame for the ongoing hot-pursuit missions.

"There is nothing credible to show the world that Islamabad has been successful in curbing support for pro-Taliban elements in its western backyard, instead the opposite seems more vivid," she told ISN Security Watch.

Unlike General Pervez Musharraf's military regime, the new democratic government of late Benazir Bhutto's party is at odds with public opinion as well as with Western perception. Faced with the messy legacy of the previous regime, the government is struggling for relief from the internal economic crunch, political upheavals resulting from military operations in the restive Balochistan province and pressure from the lawyers' movement for the restoration the independent judiciary.

At the same time, Washington has been testing the government's resolve in combating terror through drone overflights and air strikes inside Pakistani territory.

This, combined with the kidnapping of the Afghan ambassador has made a difficult situation worse.

Amid the carnage, on Sunday, President Asif Zardari arrived in London, on his way to New York to address the 63rd session of the UN General Assembly and hold bilateral meetings with the leaders of the US, India, China and Afghanistan.

His pledges to world leaders are set to be tested against tighter deadlines and mammoth tasks of fixing his government's counterterror strategy.
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