SPD leader change may soothe crisis

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier's nomination as the Social Democratic Party of Germany's (SPD) candidate for chancellor next year was not a surprise. Kurt Beck, who resigned as SPD chair on 7 September, should have been the obvious candidate, but low popularity among Germans and in the party itself had scuttled his chances. Beck saw himself as the victim of a carefully planned intrigue.

The current round of political musical chairs in the SPD reflects the ongoing crisis in the party with federal elections a little less than year away. With Steinmeier as a candidate for the chancellery, along with former SPD chair Franz Müntefering expected to be re-elected to his position in October, could this shift save the party?

Polls show low SPD support and, for the first time, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has more members than the SPD. It remains to be seen whether the two leaders can put the party on the path of success before next year's elections.
 
Steinmeier has not had a career typical for a German politician. Coming from the "second row," he worked for former chancellor Gerhard Schröder while he was Ministerpräsident (governor) of Lower Saxony and followed him to Berlin.

As head of the Office of the Chancellor and in charge of the intelligence service, Steinmeier avoided the spotlight. Even after becoming foreign minister in 2005 and vice chancellor in 2007, he presented himself as reserved and cautious. It is true that he is not a very charismatic politician, but polls show that he is, although comparatively unknown, not unpopular and people trust his competence.

Steinmeier is internationally established, with experience in EU matters, and was part of the German crisis management group after 9/11. He even met US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama during his visit to Germany and tossed the first pitch of a Boston Red Sox baseball game. Still, Steinmeiner lacks a clear persona in Germany.

The SPD might be speculating that this will be compensated by the designated party chairman Müntefering, who previously held the position from 2004 to 2005 and was vice chancellor from 2005 to 2007. Not only does he belong to the party elite, he is popular among Germans, more charismatic than Steinmeier and well-versed in election campaigns.
 
However, the SPD crisis goes well beyond questions of personality. The fact that the party has been unable to communicate policy proposals is not only caused by the lack of charismatic leaders. The SPD has suffered from not establishing a definite role in the governing Grand Coalition (the government consists of the two major parties CDU and SPD). It has oscillated between being partner and playing the opposition inside the government.

Positive developments like economic recovery have been credited to Chancellor Angela Merkel and the CDU. Deficits, however, have been considered the result of mutual blocking due to conflicts between the two governing parties.

In addition, long-standing internal conflicts in the SPD over position have had an effect. The party's left wing as well as large parts of its base has sought to undo elements of social welfare reforms introduced by the Schröder government since their establishment. Yet, the rise of the relatively new political party on the left, Die Linke, has brought issues of social policy into focus again and has even lured voters and members with traditional working class backgrounds from the SPD.

The resulting identity crisis of the SPD left wing has led to an even stronger demand for a change of direction and adjustments of the reforms. Interestingly, the left-wing faction did not try to stop Beck from stepping down, although a change at the top was very likely to give way to Steinmeier and Müntefering, two clear supporters of the reforms.
 
It will be important to see if these two "Schröderianer" can unite a party that has found neither a proper place in the government nor a line that satisfies its voters. Finding its place in the government will most likely be of less importance: The nomination of Steinmeier will not strengthen the cooperation inside a government now consisting of a chancellor and a vice chancellor set to oppose each other in September 2009 elections.

It remains to be seen if this government constellation will survive until then. In the meantime, the SPD must integrate frustrated party members by conceding to left-wing demands and communicating convincing policy proposals to the general public. Moreover, Steinmeier must enhance his profile and distinguish himself in his backyard if he wants to become Germany's next chancellor.