Latin America: Mutating threats

Latin America has long been an area of crucial, yet evolving, geostrategic importance for the US. During the Cold War the threat was seen to emanate from nations sympathetic to communism. Latin America then became the seat of the US "war on drugs."

Contemporarily, the greatest threat from the region as perceived by the Bush administration is the emergence of a cartel of populist regimes. The recent discovery of Islamist networks within a number of these hostile regimes could create a potentially troublesome nexus for any future presidential administration.

In the past, Latin America has proven an opportune place for war criminals and convicts alike to "disappear" into its dark recesses. The identification of an Islamist presence in the Tri-Border Area (TBA) where Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil converge was, perhaps, an unsurprising development. Chronic weakness in collaborative regional security structures, a US occupational presence in the Middle East and the opportunity the TBA offers as a removed sanctuary all contribute to its appeal.

Hizbollah, Hamas, al-Qaida and Islamic Jihad have all been associated with the TBA and elements of its large Arab diaspora population. Recent Argentinean and US intelligence suggests that these groups do not currently pose an operational threat. Terrorist activity there appears confined to fundraising (estimated to be hundreds of millions of dollars by the Department of Homeland Security), recruitment and training.

At least one of these groups has, however, conducted operations in the region in the past. Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the 1992 Israeli Embassy bombing and is assumed to be responsible for the 1994 AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires. It is plausible that these groups, if conditions permit, may conduct operations again in the future; if not in Latin America then elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere.

In August, Fernando Lugo, a former bishop, took office as president of Paraguay. While there is some debate about his politics, Lugo's inauguration was welcomed by other leftist Latin American leaders, as well as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Many analysts speculate that Lugo's election could be detrimental to US-Paraguayan relations.

The appointment of the former Paraguayan ambassador to Lebanon, Alejandro Hamed Franco, as foreign minister in Lugo's new government also rests unfavorably with the US. Franco has admitted connections and sympathies for groups featured on the US State Department's Foreign Terrorist Organization external pagecompendiumcall_made.

The retrogression of US-Paraguayan relations and the potential occupation of this vacuum by counterhegemonic powers, such as Venezuela and Iran, pose three problems in terms of addressing any terrorist threat existent in the Tri-Border Area.

Firstly, dissension between Paraguay and the US would jeopardize the existing regional security program. The primary security initiative designed to combat terrorism is the "3+1" program on which the Argentinean, Brazilian, Paraguayan and US intelligence services collaborate. The 2008 US National Defense Strategy stressed that "the inability of many states to police themselves effectively or to work with their neighbors to ensure regional security represents a challenge to the international system."

Secondly, the documented rise of Iranian influence in Latin America (referred to by 110th Congress 1st Session H.RES.435 as "concerning") as US power wanes, could increase the receptivity to Islamist ideologies of the greater population, further exacerbating the situation.

Finally, domestic instability in Paraguay will not be conducive to the formation of a counterterrorist regimen targeting Islamist terrorism. The escalation of rhetoric between Caracas, La Paz and Washington peaked this month with the expulsion of foreign dignitaries on all sides.

Paraguay was the latest Latin American nation in which there were conspiratorial whisperings of a coup. While Lugo perceives himself to be under assault he is likely to concede the necessity of addressing the TBA issue. Brazil recently introduced counterterrorism legislation that focuses on gangs and criminal networks, as it's these actors and not an Islamist ideology, which represent the primary threat to Brazilian national interest. This problem plagues the US-led war on terror; not just in the TBA, but globally. The developing nations from which the threat originates invariably have greater threats to their sovereignty than Islamist terror. Addressing Islamism is unlikely to be a priority for Lugo in the foreseeable future.

In reality, the TBA currently exists only as a dormant safe-haven but the potential remains for evolution to operational capacity. Al-Qaida and Hizbollah have worked together in the past; commentators remain divided on whether they will do so in the future. It is possible that sectarian divides will not be overcome. Those who believe there is a potential for future collaboration believe it's most likely to take place outside the Middle East in areas such as the Latin American TBA.

This is a period of transition regarding the TBA. The recent change of the Paraguayan premiership, the impending US presidential election and a shift in the equilibrium of power between the US, Iran and Venezuela in Latin America are all likely to impact on Islamist terrorism in the TBA in some manner.

The global war on terror will not be won through the eradication of dormant sanctuaries such as the TBA; but it could certainly be lost there.