Picking Palin: Neoconservative ascendancy

John McCain's surprise choice of running mate in Governor Sarah Palin illustrates how his tendency towards nonconformity is under increasing pressure from foreign policy hawks to toe the party line, Mara Caputo writes for ISN Security Watch.

In the midst of an unrelenting media furor surrounding Senator John McCain's choice of Governor Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential running mate, many pundits have failed to address a critical element of her nomination.
   
While discussions of potential reasons for the surprise choice have resulted in media speculation about everything from McCain's propensity for impulsive decision-making to his desperation to shore-up support among social conservatives, scant attention has been paid to what Palin's nomination suggests about the foreign policy proclivities of a future McCain administration. In fact, many see the Palin pick as evidence of the increasing influence of neoconservatives within the McCain camp.

Regularly referred to as a "maverick," McCain has long held a reputation for advocating policy views that do not strictly adhere to the Republican Party line. His campaign has heralded many of his independent-minded policy positions, arguing that much of his foreign policy philosophy is distinct from that of the now widely unpopular President George W Bush and other hardliners.

For example, McCain has broken ranks with fellow Republicans on issues such as torture and climate change and has given speeches proclaiming his desire to reinvigorate American diplomacy and multilateralism. At the same time, however, McCain has remained one of the most stalwart supporters of the Iraq war and has taken a hard line with Russia, going so far as to suggest that the country should be expelled from the Group of Eight industrialized nations.

In May, Newsweek International editor Fareed Zakaria pointed to this muddied multilateralism as a " external pageschizophrenia" in McCain's foreign policy.

This was just weeks after The New York Times reported a brewing battle for influence between the two competing philosophical camps comprising McCain's foreign policy team. The pragmatists, or realist camp, represented middle-of-the-road internationalists, many of whom have now come to believe the Iraq war or its execution was a mistake.

Pragmatist Lawrence Eagleburger, a secretary of state under the first president Bush, external pagetold The New York Times in April: "It may be too strong a term to say a fight is going on over John McCain's soul. But if it's not a fight, I am convinced there is at least going to be an attempt. I can't prove it, but I'm worried that it's taking place."

The competing camp, often referred to as neoconservatives, projects a more robust and interventionist foreign policy, which provided much of the rationale for the current Bush administration's preemptive military strategy in Iraq. McCain has surrounded himself with a number of prominent neoconservative thinkers on the campaign trail, including William Kristol and Robert Kagan. And the McCain campaign's chief foreign policy coordinator, Randy Scheunemann, is considered a widely influential neoconservative with longstanding ties to the movement on Capitol Hill.

While the Palin announcement shocked many in the media, The Telegraph reported last month that neoconservatives had been eying Palin for some time. According to the article, McCain's choice of Palin was strongly advocated by Kristol, one of the intellectual architects of neoconservative thought. And once Palin had been chosen, Scheunemann quickly moved to appoint Steve Biegun, a former high-ranking National Security Council official described as an intellectual ally of Vice-President Dick Cheney, as her chief foreign policy adviser.

Former Republican Presidential candidate Pat Buchanan external pagetold The Telegraph that "Palin has become, overnight, the most priceless political asset the [neoconservative] movement has."

Media have widely reported that McCain hoped to pick his politically moderate friend and 2000 Democratic vice-presidential nominee, Senator Joe Liebermann, to be his running mate and that his first serious consideration of Palin came only days before she was selected. This information illustrates the ideological struggle taking place within the McCain campaign and appears to confirm the fears of pragmatists, such as former secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger: The choice of Palin demonstrates that McCain's neoconservative advisers won an important battle against their more moderate counterparts.

It is easy to forget that a similar ideological fight was waged during the early days of the current Bush administration, when the views of moderate cabinet members such as former secretary of state Colin Powell were ultimately cast aside in favor of the more hawkish ones advocated by chief Iraq war architect, former undersecretary of defense Paul Wolfowitz.

In 2000, candidate George W Bush did not always espouse the robust, interventionist views that have come to define his administration since 9/11. In fact eight years ago, Bush made a case for multilateralism, external pagearguing that "if we are an arrogant nation, they'll view us that way, but if we're a humble nation, they'll respect us."

The lip-service candidate Bush paid to multilateralism in contrast to President Bush's implementation of unilateralist policies should serve as a warning about the potential direction of McCain's foreign policy. Indeed, McCain's acquiescence to neoconservatives in selecting Palin already demonstrates a significant parallel with a critical candidate Bush decision: The selection of Cheney as his vice-presidential running mate.

Cheney's hand in shaping the Bush administration's neoconservative foreign policy - in particular his forceful advocacy of the war in Iraq - has been widely documented. And Cheney has invoked his belief in the expansive powers granted to the vice-presidency and the executive branch to help him implement this agenda.

Already, Palin has echoed Cheney's views. During her recent debate with Democratic vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden, Palin said she "agrees" with Cheney that "we do have a lot of flexibility in [the office of the vice-presidency], that we'll do what we have to do to administer very appropriately the plans that are needed for this nation."

In a recent interview with CNN, the Washington Post’s Barton Gellman, who recently authored a biography on the Cheney vice-presidency, said of Palin's statement, "it sounded like Dick Cheney could have written that description. The idea of 'flexibility' on the one hand and 'do what we have to do,' those are two of the watch words of a man who believes in executive supremacy and believes that other branches of government and the public actually cannot restrict the executive."

As Jacob Heilbrunn, author of They Knew They Were Right: The Rise of the Neocons, told The Telegraph last month, "in choosing Palin, McCain may also have changed the course of history. Should this ticket win, Palin will eclipse every other Republican as heir apparent to the presidency and will have her own power base, wholly independent of President McCain."

Such a reality would closely mirror that of the last eight years.
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