Russia's western security outpost

Belarus, dubbed Europe's last dictatorship, has reiterated pledges to create a "union state" with Russia and act as Moscow's security outpost in the West. In November, Russia and Belarus are due to unify their air defense systems in an apparent bid to counter NATO's eastward advance.

It is believed that Russia has been considering extending its air and missile defense systems to neighboring Belarus. On 23 October, General Alexander Zelin, commander of Russia's air force, said that the joint air defense project with Belarus would serve as a western outpost for Russia's aerial defense.

In recent years, Russian officials repeatedly claimed that the agreement on a united Russia-Belarus air defense system remained ready for signing, but the deal has remained elusive due to economic disagreements between the two countries.

But now Minks is growing wary of what it perceives as increasing international tension. According to the traditionally outspoken Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, in a 23 October statement, the NATO military-political bloc has become active to the point that it must view the world as on the brink of war.

Apparently following Russia's example, Belarus has done some saber-rattling of its own. Earlier in October, Lukashenko pledged to modernize the country's armed forces by 2015.

"Today, we are able to mobilize up to 500,000 men," Lukashenko announced on 21 October, following joint war games with Russia.

The Belarusian leader also said his country's army would play a major role in defending the Union State of Belarus and Russia from the western direction. It was hardly coincidental that on the same day, Russia announced it would give US$2 billion in loan to Belarus.

In recent weeks, Russia and Belarus have intensified top-level contacts. On 25 October, Lukashenko traveled to Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev. Both leaders were said to discuss economic and military ties, but no concrete agreements were announced after the talks. Lukashenko voiced support for Russia's initiative to negotiate a new pan-European security treaty, a plan apparently aimed at undermining, or balancing, NATO's clout.

For years, Russia's cheap energy supplies to Belarus have been instrumental in sustaining the authoritarian regime of Lukashenko, who swept to victory in 1994 on promises of reuniting the nation of 10 million people with Russia's 141 million. In 1997, both nations signed a treaty pledging a Russia-Belarus union, but these agreements have yet to materialize.

The Kremlin's backing allowed the Belarus regime to largely ignore western pressure. In March 2006, Lukashenko secured a third term in office with Russian support, but the West slammed the vote as flawed. However, the European Union recently lifted some sanctions against Lukashenko's regime in an apparent bid to limit Belarus' dependence on Russia.

Meanwhile, Moscow has been keen to band together with Minsk due to Russia's significant security interests in Belarus. The two former Soviet nations signed an agreement in 1995, which allowed the Russian military to free use of an early warning radar hub in Baranovichi until 2020. The facility and its some 1,200 staff is designed to provide early warning of missile attacks from Western Europe.

Russian officials have made it clear they view a western military assault well within a realm of possibility. On 22 October, Vladimir Komoyedov, a member of the defense committee of the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, warned that NATO could strike Russia with more than 2,500 cruise missiles.

"A nuclear shield is our only reliable defense," Komoyedov, a former commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, said in a statement.

Subsequently, Russia has repeatedly warned it was upgrading its nuclear deterrence systems in response to NATO's continued eastward advance and the US' missile shield moves in Europe. On 22 October, General Nikolai Solovtsov, commander of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces, announced that forces under his command were being equipped with new systems to penetrate US anti-ballistic missile defense, including mobile missile systems.

Earlier in October, Russia held unprecedented strategic missile demonstrations, including the firing of ballistic missiles from nuclear submarines and launching cruise missiles with strategic bombers in highly sophisticated war games. The missile demonstrations were apparently designed to warn the West against pressuring Russia.

Simultaneously, Moscow was thought to be increasingly relying on strategic weapons in its security planning, including missile and air defense plans.

In the meantime, Belarus has hinted at its own desires for strategic rearmament. In November 2007, Belarus authorities criticized US sanctions and accused Washington of violating its commitments towards Belarus. Minsk recalled that the US had promised to refrain from any sanctions when Belarus became a non-nuclear state in early 1990s as Belarus-based nuclear weapons were moved to Russia. In other words, Minsk has indirectly cited western economic sanctions as a possible pretext for returning some strategic weapons, presumably Russian, to its soil.

Moscow continues to support Belarus, apparently counting on this post-Soviet state as a buffer between Russia and the West, and the Russian military clearly views Belarus as an important outpost. Yet it remains to be seen whether this outpost could become truly strategic.