Obama's victory, Part II

The election of Obama as the new US president will go down in history, and rightly so. It is testament not only to how much the country has changed during the last eight years, but also to the ability of the American people to question themselves, the country's standing in the world and to its ability to choose a leader - free from racial and social prejudices - who best reflects what kind of country the US should be. In his own opinion, Obama didn't win because he was the better politician or had better connections than McCain. He won because throughout the election campaign, he acted more presidential than his competitor, was able to give hope to the masses that a fundamental change in US society and politics is possible and prevented his campaign from falling into the trap of smear tactics. Ultimately, it was a decision between an America of corporate interests, fear politics and social inequality and a better vision of America that Obama is promising. Thus, the vote for Obama's "change," in truth, reflects the astonishing change that already has transformed American society.

This may, however, spell bad news for those European leaders and intellectuals who dwelled on a sentiment of anti-Americanism and European superiority over the last few years of the Bush presidency, while hypocritically relying on US military protection. The self-criticism of the American people and the election of Obama will force Europeans to look into the mirror and question themselves. What they may find is that social inequality, corporatism, racism and a tendency toward installing a police state is not only happening in the US but also in their countries. Furthermore, they might no longer be able to call for a more multilateral US approach to foreign policy because they might get it and all the responsibilities that come with it such as a commitment to send European troops into combat zones. The US has taken a first step to improve itself by looking into the mirror and voting for change. Will the Europeans follow?

Ken Egli, ISN editor and is studying political science and history at the University of Zurich and head of the ISN's primary resources project

 

The election of an American president today whose middle name is "Hussein" can only restore hope in the US. Imagine a president whose middle name was "Christian" being elected president of Iran! The election of Obama is a huge opportunity and we can but hope that he is up to the job. The chance of once again solidifying the western alliance and thus combating together all types of problems from global warming to global (financial) meltdown to Iraq to Bosnia are now better than ever. What a shame we have to wait until January before he is inaugurated.

Tim Judah, senior ISN Security Watch writer and Economist correspondent, based in London

 

Though many were celebrating Obama's historic victory on Wednesday, in Nepal, a tiny Asian republic far removed from the US, astrologers had predicted the 47-year-old's victory as early as last month, and American Democrats living in Kathmandu had sent out invitations for a victory party two days before the election.

When the result was out officially, the usually-slow-to-react Nepalese government moved fast, with President Ram Baran Yadav and Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal congratulating Obama and hoping his tenure would see better relations between the two countries. Though Nepal's Foreign Ministry feels the Democratic victory would not see any immediate change in American foreign policy toward Nepal, the ruling Maoist party is hoping for a more liberal outlook in Washington.

Until 2006, the Maoists were banned as a terrorist organization. Even now, the US State Department has them on its watch list of terror organizations. Last month, Dahal met Bush in New York and conveyed the message that since his party had returned to mainstream politics and was now leading an elected government, the terrorist tag should be removed. According to Finance Minister Baburam Bhattarai, who too belongs to the Maoist party, a Democratic victory is likely to see greater tolerance in American foreign policy.

Every year, thousands of Nepalis apply for the US Green Card lottery hoping they can leave one of the poorest nations in the world and begin afresh in one of the richest. According to Nepal's daily Kantipur newspaper, Nepalis living in the US voted for Obama, considering him to be more sympathetic to immigrants because of his own Kenyan and Indonesian family ties. The Nepali diaspora in the US, mostly from low- to middle-income backgrounds, also welcomed Obama's election pledge for healthcare and education funding.

However, the factor that struck the strongest pro-Obama chord in Nepal, both among the political parties and people, was change. On 4 November, Americans overwhelmingly voted for change. Seven months ago, Nepal too had held a historic election in which it also voted overwhelmingly for change.

Sudeshna Sarkar, ISN Security Watch correspondent in Kathmandu, Nepal

 

Obama's election to the White House has put a much-awaited and arguably joyful end to a long and tiring race. The question now, however, is whether this step will represent the foundation of "change we can believe in," or the beginning of an unfortunate series of disillusions for the new president's supporters.

First and foremost, it is important to understand that the US has now entered an awkward gap period that could last up to six months and during which the country's foreign policy strength could be at risk as it will be a long while before an Obama administration is up and running.

During that period, one will have to be on the lookout for a possible last-minute stunt by the Bush war cabinet, which could prove irreparable to the US' standing in the world. Last week's attack on Syria was no good sign in this regard. But Americans will also have to be on the watch for external – and possibly even home-grown – terrorist moves, for, as Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff has warned in the past, transition periods are always precarious ones for security establishments.

Two traps will be looming around the new president's administration: acting overly dovish (say, by perilously sending US troops to Darfur or to other non-vital interest regions) or, to the contrary, being too hawkish on the international stage (perhaps in a desperate attempt to shore up conservative security concerns). Neither of these extremes would make for a durable and efficient policy.

In the end, whether Obama remains the pragmatist his electors have voted for will depend largely on two factors: with whom he surrounds himself, and what the world that surrounds him turns out to look like over the next four years.

Andrew D Bishop, ISN Security Watch contributor, graduate student of European politics at the London School of Economics and blogger at external pageWhatYouMustReadcall_made

 

It was indeed an historic election and a momentous marker in the evolution of the American democratic experience. The fact that just 40 years ago the US was so riven with internal racial strife that African Americans couldn't vote puts this entire election in its proper perspective.

The election of Obama may or may not change the world as many of his supporters have been claiming, but it will have significant implications for America's still-evolving ties with India. Unfortunately for India the early signs are not good. After eight great years, US-India relations just might be entering another tumultuous era. The world may blame George W Bush for all the ills afflicting the international system today, but for India he represented a clean break from the past policies of previous US administrations of all hues. Bush's single-handed reversal of the entrenched US hostility toward India on Kashmir and nonproliferation makes him one of the most significant US presidents as far as India is concerned.

Early indications of Obama's priorities, on the other hand, do not bode well for the future of US-India relations. Obama took a very tough stand against outsourcing during the campaign and talked of a tax agenda that punishes those companies that "shop job overseas." Instead, he underlined the need to give tax benefits to companies that invest in the US itself, those "who will keep jobs at home." Though Obama has argued that America cannot "shy away" from globalization, he has suggested that strong measures are needed to protect jobs in the US. Since outsourcing is central to Indian economic growth in recent years, Obama's policy prescription might have a seriously negative impact on India.

The other issue that will be front and center for the Obama administration will be the strengthening of nuclear nonproliferation regime. This is an issue that is close to the heart of the Democratic policy establishment, and the "non-proliferation fundamentalists" are waiting in the wings to jump back into the fray after a long hiatus in the wilderness. Obama's advisers have also suggested that to have a verifiable CTBT and FMCT, it is crucial to have states like India and Pakistan in the framework. A push is expected to be made at the Conference on Disarmament. The nuclear nonproliferation regime in its present form is anathema to India, given its inherently discriminatory nature, so expect some US-India wrangling on this issue.

The most troubling aspect of Obama's policy vis-a-vis India is an emerging suggestion that the success of US endeavors in Afghanistan depends on greater American activism on Kashmir. It is the sort of muddle-headed approach to South Asia that historically made the US policy toward the region such a catastrophic failure and it is once again coming back with a vengeance. Obama's new Kashmir agenda threatens to derail the progress US and India have made in improving their relationship over the last decade. So while India is also celebrating Obama's victory as the victory of American idealism at its best, there are concerns that the future of US-India ties might not be as bright as the new dawn that America is experiencing today.

Harsh V Pant, ISN Security contributor and teacher at King's College London

 

One of the great things about America's democracy is that it has the ability to re-invent itself, to send an entirely new message from its own citizens to the world. On Tuesday, America sent such a message.

President-elect Obama now has to move from campaigning to governing, from rhetoric to leadership. His margin of victory coupled, more importantly, with Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate will unquestionably help. He will be tested, however, by a sprawling bureaucracy that can be difficult to change and, perhaps, by elements of his own party that will see this victory as an opportunity to pursue an agenda contrary to the core, essentially centrist, message of his campaign.

Kris Wheaton, assistant professor of Intelligence Studies at Mercyhurst College, an ISN partner

 

The election of Obama to the White House is truly a historic occasion. It demonstrates that racial divides in the US are continuing to shrink. This clearly has been the result of the shifting demographic makeup of the population in the US (due to immigration, rural- to-urban migration, the rising birthrate growing number of young people now reaching voting age), as well as a result of the impact of the information/communication/technology revolution that has dramatically lowered the costs and intensified the rate of communication and, consequently, social interactions between people.

But the election also demonstrates how Americans will unite in the face of a crisis: In particular, the unprecedented disastrous Bush presidency, its administration and the long list of failures resulting from its policies. Given the round rejection by prominent Republican and independent politicians and pundits of many Bush administration policies, the decision in the voting booth may well have been more a rejection of Bush than an acceptance of Obama. After all, on the key issues that have been central to the Republican party's strategic electoral message (abortion, lowering taxes and US dominance abroad), Obama is still firmly a Democrat.

What remains to be seen over the course of 2009 is to what degree the American people have rejected the neo-conservative path for US domestic and foreign policies. In many ways, the election was a referendum on the divisive political climate that Republicans have so carefully cultivated for the last 30 years. This particular social, political and economic experiment has run its course, has failed and is now seems rejected by the people. That said, an important divide remains. When viewing the US map of election results, it is clear there is an important geographical disconnect between the political, economic and social interests of the American heartland and south, and the rest of the country. These are divisions that should not be ignored if Americans truly wish to stand united and overcome the partisanship that has stifled politics for the last eight years.

America is strongest when Americans stand together and the US is stronger when it stands together with the international community. The public has voted for an end to short-sighted self-interest and stands behind Obama for change – let's hope the men and women in the Congress, the Senate and governorships understand what this means and follow suit.

Vivian Fritschi, ISN Business Development Manager

 

Ahead of the US presidential poll, many Russian officials clearly indicated that they would prefer an Obama victory, hoping for improved bilateral relations. However, instead of reconciliatory gestures from Moscow, Obama's success was followed by strong rhetoric from the Kremlin. In his state of the nation address on 5 November, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev blamed US selfishness and arrogance for the global financial crisis, and pledged military measures to counter the US missile defense shield plans in Europe.

The Kremlin's critical rhetoric apparently came as recognition by Moscow that Obama's presidency is unlikely to resolve all thorny problems, and both nations will remain divided over a number of issues, notably the missile defense in Europe, Iran and the Georgian crisis.

Sergei Blagov, ISN Security Watch correspondent in Moscow

 

The election of Obama has been heralded as nothing less than a "national catharsis," a repudiation of the past eight years, a purging of the painful policy pitfalls of a historically disastrous Republican president. But this release of psychic pain is not simply a national catharsis; in many ways it is a global one, as bleary-eyed, sleep-deprived observers the world over celebrated the election of a man many are already calling the first global US president.  Indeed, the election results amount to the collection of millions of personal catharses that occurred on Tuesday, as first-time voters waited patiently in long lines to pull the lever for change, as Americans poured into the streets overflowing with genuine emotion, as Kenyans outfitted in matching Obama t-shirts swatted away mosquitoes at all-night, outdoor parties, only to erupt in front of camera crews with shouts of "I love America!" in the wee hours of the morning.

Surely, the honeymoon will end quickly as the daunting challenges facing an Obama presidency take shape, but even the most cynical among us cannot discount the emotional purification that took place in America on Tuesday. The outcome demonstrates more than just a renunciation of Bush years; it marks a reaction to decades - even centuries - of unhealed national wounds. This spiritual renewal was captured on the tear-stained faces of embattled civil rights activists like the Reverend Jesse Jackson and the authentic euphoria of first-time young voters, whose trademark ennui toward the system seemed to have dissipated without a trace.

Yes, the exhilaration may be overstated. Of course, solutions to the obstacles ahead lie beyond the reach of one man, if they exist at all. But even many cynics have been awed at least temporarily into an almost reverential reverie, where we have allowed ourselves to bask in the healing power of hope that appears to have come to America and the world.

Mara Caputo, ISN Editor

 

Obama's election signals a revival of the optimism, idealism and can-do mentality that has historically set the United States apart. Through Obama's election, the country is again becoming a nation Europeans can look up to. Hopefully, Europeans will leave their cynical anti-Americanism behind and be inspired by Obama's new course, so that also we Europeans are able to confront problems like discrimination in all forms or the coming recession and say: "Yes we can."

Sara Kuepfer, ISN Security Watch correspondent in Geneva

 

From the perspective of a young person, leadership at the national level (and some would argue at the international level) has been all but present over the past eight years. Obama now stands poised to fill this void. His election is a testament to the elasticity of American society, its multifaceted composition and its capacity for self-evaluation. Cynicism has justifiably dominated the attitudes of many. Maybe now we can set it aside for a little while and formulate some sensible policy.

Claudio Guler, ISN intern

 

Deference to political symbolism of truly epochal proportions ought to trump a disdain for platitudes. So here goes. The election of an African-American to the presidency of the United States 45 years after Dr King delivered his "I Have a Dream" speech is a politically and culturally monumental achievement for American society. More broadly still, for many people around the world, this election will also come to symbolize the seemingly amazing capacity of the US for self-renewal, re-invention, and, in the simple yet defining term of this election, its capacity for "change" itself.    

Yet deciphering the meaning of this word "change" and understanding where it will lead the US has in many respects been complicated by the fact that President-elect Obama remains somewhat of a cipher himself. A clear disjuncture exists between his centrist campaign rhetoric and a personal biography and voting record that is decidedly more left-leaning than that of any US president in a quarter century. Because of this, for many, the version of Senator Obama that emerges as the next US president remains to be seen.

Patrick J Cullen, ISN Security Watch contributor specializing in private security

 

I think Obama's election as the US' first African-American president whose roots are closer to home is a cause for celebration here in Somalia, where many people believe the hardships and the recent chaos that has engulfed the country is connected to US foreign policy. Certainly, there will be a change in that policy toward Somalia, which could help bring peace and stability to our war-torn Horn of Africa country.

I believe the victory of Obama, who was once during the campaign accused by a rival of being un-American because of his foreign extraction and the publication of photos of him wearing traditional Somali attire, is a beacon of hope not only for Americans but for people all over the world, particularly in this part of the world where lawlessness has ruled for nearly two solid decades.  

Obama's "Yes we can," will resonate for many here for decades to come and it will go down in the annals of history as a powerful rallying slogan in our time, just like Martin Luther King's "I have a dream" did in the 1960s.

Abdurrahman Warsameh, senior ISN Security Watch correspondent in Somalia

 

Obama's stunning, admirable and resounding victory is a lesson that impacts every country across the globe in one way or another, not just Kenya, where the US Democratic president-elect has roots. His victory is a particularly useful lesson for we Kenyans, who have undergone a recent post-election crisis due to disputed presidential polls, to recognize the fact that McCain has conceded defeat gracefully. I believe it is possible to govern a country, any country, without preaching hatred, fear and despondency. I believe Americans have set a shining example and channeled it through a grandson of Kenya. In coming together to elect Obama, the US' melting pot of citizens drawn from all over the world has reaffirmed the American dream. The great values underpinning American education, technology, industry, entrepreneurship and creativity have received a mighty boost with this election.

The victory of Obama is our own victory, as we see it. As a country, we are full of pride for his success since his victory heralds a new dawn in the history of America and in relations between America and other nations. It is exciting for Kenya, not only because of our attachment to Obama, but also because his victory is a harbinger of good tidings, especially for our tourism sector. Obama's leadership of the US is likely to bridge polarization and foster unity.

Daniel Ooko, ISN Security Watch correspondent in Nairobi, Kenya

 

Obama's victory is indeed a sign of change. Urban Indians are euphoric, hoping that he will ease the financial crisis that has also begun hurting them. The Indian establishment sees an ally in him in its own fight against terrorism. But his statement about trying to resolve the Kashmir problem has made the government and the political parties apprehensive. India has always contended that this is a bilateral issue and does not welcome any mediators.

Also, it's a fact that Republican presidents have favored India more than the Democratic incumbents, but Obama's response to the economic downturn and the war in Iraq, which have ramifications the world over, have won him more admirers and raised expectations. Indians want a US president who can overcome the current slump. In John McCain, Indians saw a shadow of George W Bush. They feared that McCain would start another war in Iran or worsen the situation in Iraq.

However, there is skepticism, too. Will Obama deliver on his promises or get bogged down by the circumstances? Now India will wait patiently until January to see Obama begin his innings.

Obama seems to enjoy a lot of support because he symbolizes change in America. With millions of Indians now living in America, the perception back home is that someday one amongst them too might be able to become US president.

Ravi Prasad, ISN Security Watch Southeast Asia contributor, New Delhi

 

The world well knows that Obama was born to a Kenyan father and went to an elementary school in Indonesia. However, it probably less aware that his mother was working in a central Punjab town of Gujranwala on a donor-funded, micro-financing project while he himself spent weeks traveling inside Pakistan's Sindh province in the 1980s. Obama has some close Pakistani friends. Still, most Pakistanis are not pinning high hopes on him in the aftermath of two terms of Bush and Cheney.

The optimistic ones do believe that US policy may change but there are no abrupt U-turns in sight. Though Obama is being welcomed with his promises of change, the credibility gap between the US and Pakistan has been widening over the past few months, culminating in a fruitless recent visit by General David Petraeus and US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher. The 160 million Pakistanis have little idea of whether Obama has any great concern for the US' deteriorated image in the Muslim world.

The Pakistani people would like Obama to announce the closure of Guantanamo Bay, try its inmates according to international law, and release Dr Aafia Siddiqui, a Pakistani female unlawfully being tried in a US court. Moreover, a halt to violations of Pakistani airspace and land borders would prove to be another key confidence-building measure. Islamabad may not succumb to Washington's intimidation in the future, and losing Pakistan would not serve anyone's interest, except the Taliban. So far now, the jury on the US elections is still out in Pakistan, and the people here are waiting to see what happens in the corridors of power.

Naveed Ahmad, senior ISN Security Watch correspondent in Islamabad, Pakistan

 

The Kazakhs here are all celebrating Obama's victory. They opened champagne in the offices (not that Kazakhs really need a big excuse to drink), and they are all pleased as punch. I just asked the graduate class I teach if they also celebrated Bush's re-election this way, and they all gave me nasty looks. Everyone here is happy with Obama. I don't think I've ever seen a new US president celebrated abroad as much as Obama. Now let's just see if he can undo some of Bush's foreign policy disasters.

Ustina Markus, senior ISN Security Watch contributor based in Almaty

 

Although Obama's election is seen by many commentators as a turning point for sub-Saharan Africa, the new US president will have to be much clearer about how he intends to shape development cooperation with the continent. As what happened in most previous election campaigns, Obama simply proposed an increase of development aid to Africa. According to the program, the US will double the amount of foreign assistance, cancel the debt for the heavily indebted poor countries, increase investments in healthcare, agriculture and peace support in Darfur and the DRC. Much of the African expectations in Barack Obama, however, stem from the Kenyan origin of the new president, rather than from the originality of his development plans.

It will be difficult for the new president to entirely rewrite the relationship between Washington and African leaders. Obama inherits the policies of eight years of Bush administration, including the successful programs against HIV-AIDS and the establishment of AFRICOM, the US military command for Africa, which has been contested by many African states. The combination of the existing structures of US-African relations and the impact of the global financial crisis on the US economy seriously inhibits Obama's leeway for innovative and costly strategies. In the short-term, high expectations in the new president may be out of reach.

Edoardo Totolo, ISN Security Watch correspondent

 

While an undoubted factor propelling Obama's 4 November historic victory was American concerns over the national economy, the presidential race attracted worldwide interest, with many governments and nations around the world eager to see what changes would follow eight years of the Bush administration, the most unpopular in American history. When Obama begins to exercise his mandate, many Americans will expect him to put fiscal reform at the top of his priorities, but the rest of the world, while interested in the recovery of the world's largest economy, have concerns as well.

In the international sphere, the new administration's first focus must be to repair the damage caused by a "maverick" administration that regarded treaties signed as valuable only insofar as they advanced administration interests, ignoring or withdrawing from those that did not. Amongst the many blots on the outgoing administration's record, perhaps the most egregious can be summed up in one word - Guantanamo -  with all the odious practices carried out there, as well as in Abu Ghraib and other "black" sites.

The new administration must make it its highest international priority to reinstate in the eyes of the world the image of America as a nation of laws, and a good place to begin would be to reaffirm US commitment to the Geneva Conventions, which expressly outlaw torture. The military kangaroo courts at Guantanamo must be abolished and norms of law restored, while on the international level, the US must reaffirm its commitment to international law and strive to recover its place as "first among nations" by example, rather than by military force and coercion.

Concerted efforts must also be made to work again with our allies, whose views were frequently ignored by the Bush administration. Obama pointedly referred in his victory speech to "alliances to repair" in a world grown weary of Bush's xenophobic rhetoric.

As George Washington said in his farewell address, "It will be worthy of a free, enlightened, and, at no distant period, a great Nation, to give to mankind the magnanimous and too novel example of a People always guided by an exalted justice and benevolence."

John Daly, senior ISN Security Watch analyst