Sudan: China is the key
By Claudio Guler for ISN
It is near the bottom of the Obama to-do list: But with Darfur, the incoming US administration has the opportunity to do more than its predecessor. The solution is China, but the approach necessitates subtlety.
China and its national oil company, the China National Petroleum Corporation (external pageCNPC), have been doing business in Sudan since the early 1990s. Since then, Beijing and the CNPC have bankrolled Khartoum, consciously ignored genocide and helped perpetuate conflict.
It would seem therefore that to change Khartoum's behavior, scheduling a meeting with Beijing would be a good first step. Wrong. Today the US is more than ever in need of amicable relations with China. The evolving financial crisis demands fervent Sino-US cooperation. To avoid costly schisms that could imperil constructive collaboration, the US should for the time being shelve efforts to bilaterally pressure China on Darfur.
History moreover underscores this conclusion. Pressuring China on human rights directly has often failed to bear fruit. President Bill Clinton tried it in his first term, only to shift his focus to improving trade relations in his second term to encourage political liberalization and enhance Beijing's respect for human rights.
Therefore, the way forward on Darfur entails indirect, not direct US coercion of Beijing. To accomplish this, the new White House should engage civil society, throw its weight behind the International Criminal Court's (ICC) proceedings in Sudan early on, and call for the full deployment of the hybrid African Union-United Nations peacekeeping force.
Since 1993, China has been a net importer of oil. This has forced the Communist Party of China (CPC) to look beyond its own borders to find reliable suppliers to maintain its domestic pledge of economic growth - the CPC's chief pillar of legitimacy. Africa has become a favorite destination. China's inroads into Africa have included among others Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Algeria, Chad, Equatorial Guinea and Sudan. China's pursuits in Sudan represent its largest and most successful international oil expedition to date.
US-based Chevron Corporation first discovered oil in Southern Sudan in 1978. Its presence however was short lived. Upon the outbreak of war in Southern Sudan in the early 1980s, Chevron's operations withered. The company never extracted any oil from Sudan and eventually sold its concessions.
During the 1990s, the Canadian firm Arakis Energy Corporation, later acquired by Talisman Energy Inc, operated in Sudan. But it also left before significantly developing its operations; however, not on account of security concerns but normative pressures from back home.
The CNPC has had a presence in Sudan since 1992. When Talisman Energy left in 2003, it became the largest proprietor of the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company (external pageGNPOC), holding a 40 percent ownership stake. The GNPOC was incorporated in 1997 and is today a joint venture owned in collaboration with CNPC by India's ONGC (25 percent), Malaysia's Petronas (30 percent), and Sudan's Sudapet (5 percent). It is principally responsible for oil exploration and production in Sudan.
China not only operates in Sudan, but also imports billions of dollars worth of oil from Sudan. In 1999, the CNPC extracted approximately 25,000 barrels per day (bpd). By 2002, this number reached 100,000 bpd. By 2006, CNPC was extracting 220,000 bpd and sending over 60 percent back home. In 2005, Sudan made up 5 percent of China's oil imports. Over the past decade, depending on the price of oil, Sudan sold anywhere from US$3 to US$6 billion worth of oil to China per year.
Khartoum used this revenue to fund the Darfur conflict, which has generated an estimated 300,000 victims and displaced another 2 million. The external pageUN claims 230,000 people fled the conflict in 2008 alone.
For both China and Sudan there are benefits and drawbacks to their relationship. Beijing provides Khartoum with foreign exchange, arms to external pageconduct its internal wars and diplomatic cover at the UN. Conversely, Khartoum supplies Beijing with much needed oil and a public relations headache.
China's pre-eminence and leverage in Sudan as well as its status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council renders it the most responsible international actor in the non-resolution of the Darfur conflict. All the same, due to current global economic conditions the US should not exert direct pressure on China to reform. The incoming US administration should instead make use of alternative avenues.
For the incoming Obama administration, engaging civil society is a good idea because China cares about image politics. Proof of this lies in the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics. Civil society, particularly the media, has the platform and voice to stigmatize China on Darfur.
Supporting the ICC's proceedings in Sudan is also sound policy for the new administration because the possibility of an indictment has markedly concerned Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir. China on the other hand can save face by arguing the ICC is an autonomous international institution over which it no longer has control since abstaining on UN Security Council Resolution 1593 referring the situation in Darfur to the prosecutor of the ICC.
Moreover, the US should publicly pledge to veto any resolutions seeking to invoke Article 16 of the Rome Statute, which suspends an investigation for 12 months and is renewable. This could additionally help China elude a snag with Khartoum.
Finally, because of the value China ascribes to image politics, it has supported the hybrid AU-UN peacekeeping force. Greater urgency on the part of an Obama administration to call for the full deployment of this force is unlikely to alienate China but help Darfuris.
Pressing economic concerns now regrettably overshadow and thwart US efforts to tackle Darfur by way of direct diplomacy or military action. But by engaging civil society, backing the ICC's investigation in Sudan, and calling for the full deployment of the hybrid AU-UN peacekeeping force, the incoming US administration can begin to make progress on Darfur and elucidate a firm stance against genocide.