The chill of independence

Oil and geopolitics play a role in Greenland's upcoming vote for independence from Denmark, Lise Rechsteiner writes for ISN Security Watch.

The inhabitants of Greenland will vote for independence from Denmark on 25 November, and this Danish colony that became an autonomous part of the kingdom 30 years ago is expected to embrace the idea.

The Danish government supports the wish of the Greenlanders, but not everything is as unambiguous in Denmark's backyard as the façade might suggest.

The Danes have always provided the inhabitants of Greenland with massive economic support, on which the latter is totally reliant. However, as the ice starts to melt in the north and predictions about huge natural resource reserves in the area are made, the Greenlanders have found their long desired hope of relief from economic subjection. And truth be told, the Danes, with their apprehensive social system to consider, were never satisfied with the economic burden Greenland constituted.

As such, a declaration of independence might seem like a simple deal, but as it turns out, oil and the strategic position of Greenland is complicating matters.

One of the estimates of Greenland's potential resources has been set to a fourth of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas reserves. Further, the territorial claims of Greenland reach as far as to the even greater potential natural resource reserves of the external pageNorth Pole.

For Denmark and other outside actors, such as the EU, there is much more at stake here than Greenland's independence. 

The EU sees Greenland as an Arctic window of opportunity. Since Greenland is not itself a member of the European club, the EU is active in talks about its future membership as an independent nation. As do many others, the EU seeks to gain as much influence as possible in the development of the Arctic region's natural resources.

Neighboring states are tightening their grip on the North Pole. Russia is sending scientists to the region to gather data in support of Russia's territorial claims over the North Pole and planting their flag on its sea bed. The US possesses strategic military bases on Greenland that are a central part of American plans for a national missile defense system. If the cold region of the North would develop into a hot area, the strategic positioning around Greenland would be of paramount importance.

In addition to the US, Russia, Canada and the EU, two small Nordic states are involved in this big game in the north: Norway and Denmark. Norway calls for territorial rights through its island of Svalbard, and Denmark claims its say in the Arctic region through its vast autonomous land of the Inuit - Greenland. It does not seem plausible that Denmark would give up such a "window of opportunity" too easily.

Denmark's public support for Greenland's independence drive might seem contradictory to the country's active position in forwarding its own interest in the Arctic. But a closer look at the independence arrangement demonstrates that it might be of advantage to Denmark economically as well as strategically.

The economic burden that Greenland has posed for Denmark for many years will be reduced. The Danish government under Fogh Rasmussen has signed a deal with the autonomous government of Greenland to the effect that the yearly economic support of 3 billion DKK (€400 million) will continue until Greenland's income reaches the same amount. From that point on, the income from natural resources will be split in half between the two countries. If the predictions come true, Denmark might even get more out of the deal.

At any rate, it is not yet clear whether Greenland ever will be able to reach a level of self-sustainable income. The 2000 US Geological Survey's predictions about the potential oil fields were drastically reduced in 2007 after a detailed reassessment. If Greenland cannot sustain itself, for Denmark that simply means a status quo from the current economic arrangement.

But why should Denmark keep paying if Greenland declares itself independent?

Even if Denmark is stuck with the economic burden of Greenland, the country seems to keep its advantageous strategic position with an independence declaration. There are signs that Greenland will have trouble keeping up with the responsibilities that go along with sovereignty. Greenland does not seem capable of handling all its administrative and educational tasks alone. An essential sovereign task such as foreign policy is likely to remain in the hands of the Danes.

It seems as if Denmark is the winner of this game no matter how it ends. But for the external pageInuits, this is rather a question of principles and ideals. The people of Greenland never went through a decolonialization process and have never been truly integrated into the Danish Kingdom. In the end, this independence vote is about satisfying the wish of the Greenlanders with an arrangement that has no real consequences. Perhaps it is the best solution for both parties.

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