Romania: Voter disillusionment

Romanians will go to the polls on 30 November to elect a new parliament, but not a new head of state in the country's first elections in its recent democratic history separating parliamentary and presidential polls.

Constitutional reform in 2004 extended the president's term in office from four to five years. Voters are also facing a new electoral rule: They no longer cast ballots for party lists, but elect one candidate for each constituency. The reason for this change lies in the reputed public discontent with the quality of parliamentarians. According to opinion polls conducted last year, voters were enthusiastic about the idea of giving their votes to individual candidates instead of electoral parties.

The presidential race has traditionally been the emotional highlight of Romanian elections. There used to be a clear link between a presidential candidate's success and the result of his party in the parliamentary election.

This year, however, the catalyzing effect of presidential candidates is missing, but the electoral campaign is still very much focused on certain personalities and inclined toward populist rhetoric and promises. This weakens the chances of smaller parties that lack shining personalities as well as the money to launch large campaigns.

Furthermore, the new electoral system clearly benefits the large parties due to the small size of the electoral constituency, which does not allow for proportional representation. In Romania's mixed plurality system, only candidates with a majority of votes in their constituency directly make it to the parliament. The remaining votes are redistributed on the national level, which is the only chance for small parties to gain a seat.

Four years ago, the electoral race was clearly dominated by the left and right blocs. This year, the two main market-oriented right-wing parties - the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democratic Liberal Party (PD-L and former PD) - are running separately, which weakens this political force. The third and major player is the Social Democratic Party (PSD) - a left-wing party whose members are still widely associated with the old communist guard.

The complexity of the voting system adds to the lack of confidence Romanians have in their political class. Electors already expect their votes to be distorted by unpredictable post-election negotiations. In their eyes, any alliance appears intriguing, even one between the PD-L and the PNL, since the two parties have been locked in a drawn out power struggle.

While in the past two years several scandals and disputes between the president and the prime minister have dominated the political scene, the public seemed less worried than it is today about the country's future.

In 2007, at a moment of climaxing political instability, the economy was still booming, presenting an impressive growth of 7.7 percent and high levels of investment. But in view of the current financial crisis a sense of optimism is no longer perceivable among the population.

Romanians also seem to have fallen prey to their disproportionate private consumption. The past year's advantageous availability of private credit has led the country into the capitalist trap. Naturally, with the elections approaching, the government had no incentive to put an end to the country's buying frenzy and promised higher wages instead.

Against the will of Prime Minister Calin Popescu-Tariceanu, President Traian Basescu recently passed a law increasing teachers' salaries and pensioners' incomes by more than 50 percent. This electoral gift proved to be impracticable, however, and implementation has hence been delayed until spring 2009. Teachers strikes and increasing mobilization of labor unions have been the consequence. With the wage issue constantly in the headlines, all parties have become increasingly generous in their campaign promises.  

The upcoming elections are said to be the most unpredictable in the country's 18 years of democratic history. But no matter how the future governing alliance shapes up, it has to address the economic challenges the country faces in light of the financial crisis. Otherwise, the country is very close to falling into recession.

What remains to be seen is whether the new electoral system is able to generate a clever political class, willing to tackle not only the country's economic problems but also the issue of corruption. If politicians are not able to regain voter trust, political apathy is likely to become widespread - thereby making the young democracy even more fragile than it already is.