Crimea in trouble

Ever since the August war between Russia and Georgia, talk has drifted toward Ukraine as the next battleground, with pundit after pundit predicting that Crimea would be the flashpoint. With its majority Russian population and home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Crimea has seemed poised for trouble.

The past few weeks have only fueled the uncertainty as Russia sends ambiguous signals on its plans for the fleet and appears to be trying out various scenarios all at the same time.

On one hand, Moscow claims to respect Ukraine's decision not to extend the lease of the port facilities in Sevastopol, a city on the Crimean peninsula, beyond 2017. Ukrainian officials reiterated their decision last month, their resolve hardened over Russia's use of several fleet warships in the conflict with Georgia, whom Ukraine considers a friend.

Moscow has, however, been dragging its feet on coming up with an alternative solution. Yes, the end of the agreement is still eight years away, but some analysts have surmised that a move of this size and scope would have to begin already in 2010. Others have wondered what would happen if Ukraine eventually received NATO membership with the Black Sea Fleet still stationed on its territory and operating with relative impunity.

Perhaps Moscow is simply betting on a resounding loss for President Viktor Yushchenko's party in the upcoming early elections - a real possibility considering current opinion polls. Pro-western Yushchenko spoke out defiantly against Russia's use of the port during the war and called for Russia to notify Ukraine in advance the next time around.

A coalition of Moscow-friendly Viktor Yanukovich and Yulia Tymoshenko, who has been more pragmatic as of late concerning Russia, could virtually ensure tough times for Yushchenko leading up to presidential elections in 2010 and his almost certain defeat.

Or perhaps Moscow, distracted by the financial crisis and other priorities, has simply been moving slowly, but has started to explore other options and a real backup plan.

In mid-November, Russian and foreign news agencies reported that Moscow was considering building a naval base for the Black Sea Fleet in Abkhazia, the breakaway Georgian province whose independence Russia recognized soon after the August war with Georgia.

RIA Novosti said Vladimir Komoyedov, a Russian member of parliament and former Black Sea Fleet commander, had mentioned the coastal town of Ochamchire, a former submarine base, as the possible site. Not surprisingly, the comments from the Abkhaz side were overflowing with enthusiasm for such a move, lauding the advantages of Ochamchire and stating their willingness to cooperate (as if a separatist state backed up by Moscow has any choice). 

Yet even these talks may be just a bluff.

Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation has surmised that Russia actually has no intention of moving the Black Sea Fleet to Ochamchire and other possible ports, such as Sokhumi. Instead, 16 new ships planned for the Black Sea Fleet by 2015 will be based in such places, offering Russian officials the excuse, as 2017 looms closer and closer, that they just don't have the space to move the ships based in Sevastopol yet.

"Moscow […] takes the position that talks with Ukraine on withdrawing the fleet can be held when the 2017 deadline draws near," Socor wrote in the 26 November issue of the Eurasia Daily Monitor. "This would practically ensure the Russian fleet's stay in Ukraine past the deadline, with or without Ukrainian consent to prolong the basing agreement."

There is also the question whether Moscow is planning a repeat of the South Ossetia scenario so effectively employed in August: emboldening ethnic Russians in the near abroad with money, passports and political backing and then waiting for a convenient excuse to rush to their defense, thereby extending the Russian sphere of influence into a sovereign country.

Replicating tactics employed in the breakaway regions of Georgia, Moscow has been apparently issuing passports to ethnic Russians in Ukraine, including those who live in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Estimates very widely - from 2,000 reported by the Voice of America to as many as 100,000 according to the intelligence site Stratfor - but hardly anyone doubts the practice continues unabated.

Those impatient to find out how Moscow might "really" act can always purchase an upcoming Russian video game that imagines another war over South Ossetia. This time, however, the producers of "Confrontation: Peace Enforcement” say, Ukraine decides to blockade the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.

The game's developers envision NATO involvement, with Poland taking the lead, but apparently they are well-informed enough to not consider Ukraine a NATO member-state in their virtual, geo-political world.

They might as well have been following the latest scuffle between the US and European NATO allies over Ukraine's chances for membership. As the International Herald Tribune reported on 26 November, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has apparently been trying to convince European diplomats to bypass the usual Membership Action Plan (MAP) process, an approach which some Europeans angrily saw as a tactic to fast-track Ukraine and Georgia to NATO membership.

Germany, France and other countries have rejected that possibility out-of-hand for the foreseeable future, though NATO foreign ministers could theoretically give the green light for a MAP for both countries at a meeting next week.

Yet Rice has claimed that the idea to skip MAP had nothing to do with speeding up the admission process: "It does not anticipate or suggest that there would be lower standards for entry into NATO. It does not suggest that there needs to be an accelerated timetable. It is the same open-door policy that we've had about meeting standards." She said it was "very clear" that the two countries were not ready for membership.

Earlier in the month, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates had also pointedly questioned Ukraine's military readiness at a meeting of NATO defense ministers. "While Ukraine's track record is impressive, it cannot rest on past achievements," Gates was quoted by Bloomberg as saying. "It must speed the pace of security-sector reform, specifically addressing defense budget shortfalls and urgently needed improvements in planning and prioritization."

With such faint praise for a country supposedly deserving of an alternative to MAP, the issue of the Black Sea Fleet may be decided, one way or another, far before Ukraine manages to join NATO.