Political end game

With peace obstructed at every turn, Somalia faces worsening turmoil as the president starts a major power struggle with his prime ministerial rival, Abdurrahman Warsameh reports for ISN Security Watch.

Somali President Abdulahi Yusuf Ahmed has named close ally Mohamed Mohamoud Guled Gamadere as prime minister, replacing Nur Hassan Hussein in a move that promises to turn a long-simmering political crisis into a colossal power struggle.

Yusuf made his prime ministerial nomination on Tuesday in defiance of a parliamentary decision the day before to reinstate sacked Prime Minister Hussein, the president's key rival.

The president accused Hussein of a range of violations, including the failure to restore security in the war-torn country, incompetence, mismanagement and treason.

Hussein, who has recently become the darling of the West for his pursuance of peace with the opposition, has categorically denied the charges and insists he remains, legally, the prime minister.

The president's attempt to remove Hussein, the prime minister's subsequent reinstatement by the parliament and then the naming of a new prime minister by Yusuf effectively tears the two rival camps within the weak transitional federal government in two.

Hussein maintains that the president is seeking to frustrate his efforts at making peace with a major opposition group whose moderate leader arrived in Mogadishu for the first time in two years as a result of a peace and power-sharing deal signed in neighboring Djibouti.

Yusuf has been skeptical about the process, saying that pact was a "clan deal" - a reference to the fact that the opposition is dominated by the powerful Hawiye clan while the government's delegation was, by default or by design, led by Hussien and his deputy, Ahmed Abdisalam, both of whom are of the Hawiye clan.

The president's untenable position

Dahir Isse, a political commentator in Mogadishu, says that the president began playing the clan card when he understood that the end of the term of the current transitional period was nearing and his own future was in question. The text of the power-sharing agreement stipulates the expansion of parliament’s membership, extension of the transitional period and, most worrying to Yusuf, the election of a "new leadership" for the country.

"It is a sort of military-style pre-emptive action to thwart any attempt at unseating him when you see the president taking such risky, drastic actions as ousting the premier as the UN-brokered peace talks in Djibouti he has been spearheading are about to bear fruit," Isse told ISN Security Watch.

In accordance with the Djibouti agreement between the Somali government and the opposition coalition (the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia, ARS), the current membership of the 275-seat parliament will be doubled to make room for an additional 275 members - 200 of whom will come from the opposition. The remaining 75 will be distributed among Somali civil society groups, business leaders, women and the diaspora.

The expanded parliament will then elect a new speaker and a president who will in turn nominate a new prime minister. The prime minister will then be tasked with forming a national unity government to be approved by parliament early next year.

Some analysts believe that the two sides struck an informal agreement in which the speaker's post would be given to the current government. Others believe that the current speaker, who is fully cooperating with Hussein and the UN-brokered, Ethiopian-backed Djibouti peace accord, will retain his post while an opposition figure will hold the presidency.

Moderate Islamist leader Sheik Sharif Shriek - as the only viable senior figure in the opposition and the only one with whom world leaders see any chance of negotiating - is likely to be made the next Somali president, says Isse. 

According to Isse, considering the international community's approval of the Djibouti accord and the overwhelming vote of confidence in Hussein's government by the majority of the Somali parliament, it seems that the president's position is untenable.

Opposition discord

Not all members of the opposition are satisfied with the Djibouti accord, however.

A number of insurgent groups have opposed the deal, including the hardline Islamist movement of Al-shabaab (a splinter group within the armed wing of the ARS) and the Islamic Front Movement, which is in control in much of southern and central Somalia, with some fighters stalking close to the capital. 

Insurgents opposed to the Djibouti agreement say they will not share power with a government they consider a "puppet." These groups continue to carry out attacks on the remaining Ethiopian troops and African Union peacekeepers as well as Somali government forces in Mogadishu and Baidoa.

Shiek Sharif, in Mogadishu since last week, has been holding meetings with local community leaders to avert any possible confrontation between his supporters and the other factions who are still reluctant to meet with him.

However, the international community - represented by the African Union and the east African Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) - vowed last month to punish anyone seen as an obstacle to peace.

During an extraordinary meeting of IGAD foreign ministers in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa in November, the Horn of African regional body asked member-states of other international bodies, including the UN Security Council, to impose travel restrictions on and freeze the assets of individuals or groups deemed to be against peace efforts in the country.

This came after Yusuf and Hussein failed to agree on a cabinet shakeup and Yusuf expressed dissatisfaction with the way the talks had ended in Djibouti,while some Somali insurgent groups refused to accept the result of the peace talks.

On Tuesday, Kenya announced it would impose sanctions on Yusuf and his family for obstructing peace. However, that threat has not been enforced.

Ibrahim Guled, a political analyst in Bossaso, the commercial capital of the semi-autonomous region of Puntland, says such threats are likely to remain empty.

"Diplomatic pressure has failed to affect the behavior of some of Somali leaders who are apparently against any move to towards peace that could potentially bring about their demise," Guled told ISN Security Watch.

Frustrated 'friends'

For its part, and frustrated by the constant bickering and never-ending tit-for-tats between the president and his successive prime ministers, Ethiopia, which militarily supported the Somali government, said earlier this month that it would withdraw its remaining troops from Mogadishu and Baidoa by the end of the year. They are the only two cities still under Somali government control in the country's south-central region

Emerging external pagereports also indicate that Uganda and Burundi will withdraw their 3,400 peacekeepers from Mogadishu even before Ethiopian troops leave, fearing that insurgents who are in control of most of the south-central area will sweep into the capital.

The UN Security Council, which meets this week on Somalia, is, as always, expected not to recommend sending UN forces to Somalia unless there is clear progress in the political and security situation.

"These conditions are unlikely to be met by a country facing nearly two years of deadly warfare [...] and recurring political acrimony between Somali officials," Guled said.

"It seems the world would leave Somalia on its own, and that may be the only viable option now available - but to many Somalis the better option at this point would be to languish under the strict rule of the Islamists than face endless mass suffering," he added.

JavaScript has been disabled in your browser