Somalia sees hope in new leader

The Somali parliament-in-exile on 31 January elected the 44-year-old cleric Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, the former moderate head of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), as their country’s new president. While this has given many a glimmer of hope that the country is on a path to stability, the fundamental political struggles in Somalia remain to be solved.

Sharif Ahmed defeated the candidate favored by the West, Prime Minister Nur Hassan, who was the driving force behind the UN-sponsored Djibouti peace process that was initiated to relaunch talks between the increasingly discredited Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the ever-stronger Islamist opposition.

Ironically, the conditions of the Djibouti peace deal, which doubled the size of parliament to 550 in a country of just 8 million, are what ultimately allowed Sharif Ahmed to win the presidency. Among the new MPs added were 200 from the Hawiye-dominated Islamic opposition led by Sharif Ahmed himself and 75 members of civil society organizations and the diaspora - all accommodated with the financial backing of western donors, in particular the European Commission.

Sharif Ahmed is known as a moderate Islamist. A teacher by training, he set up an Islamic sharia court in the capital Mogadishu and subsequently became chairman of the ICU, which ran the capital for six months during the second half of 2006 before being ousted by US-backed Ethiopian troops. During this brief period of ICU rule, Mogadishu enjoyed unprecedented stability and peace, for which Sharif Ahmed is still credited.

Notwithstanding, the cheering crowds in Mogadishu demonstrating in support of their new president are only part of the story. Sharif Ahmed is an Abgal, a sub-clan of the Hawiye. It is therefore no surprise that residents of the mainly Abgal northern Mogadishu districts were external page cheering the victory of "their" president.

Many Habr Gedir though, a rival Hawiye sub-clan, support the al-Shabaab militia as well as the more radical ARS-Asmara faction, led by Hassan Dahir Aweys, which openly opposed the Djibouti peace process. Furthermore, Puntland (as well as the unilaterally declared independent region of Somaliland) were absent from the Djibouti process.

The participants of the Djibouti peace process, namely the ARS-Djibouti faction led by Sharif Ahmed and the former Transitional Federal Government (TFG), will now try to formulate a unity government as a powerful political alliance to marginalize the radicals. In reality, they control very little territory.
 
The al-Shabaab militia, which was the militant wing of the ICU and evolved into an autonomous guerrilla force in south central Somalia in 2007, has consistently grown in strength and organization since the Ethiopian occupation of the country at the end of 2006. Since capturing the strategic port of Kismaayo late last year, it has expanded its control over most parts of southern Somalia - notwithstanding the Ethiopian presence in the country.

Additionally, it was the widespread grievances about the Ethiopian presence that helped al-Shabaab legitimize its expansion. With the official withdrawal of the Ethiopian army on 25 January in accordance with the Djibouti peace deal there is hope that Sharif Ahmed will be in a better position to reach out to certain elements of the Islamic insurgent groups. Direct political negotiations, however, will be rather unlikely, as some of the more extremist factions of the country’s Wahhabi-inclined militias, like the Al-Ansaar group, claim allegiance to al-Qaida and see their fight as part of a global jihad.

Still, the situation on the ground is not as clear as it may seem from the news reports: Many of the militias are locally based and anchored in sub-clans. It remains to be seen where they will decide to put their loyalty in the end.

Sharif Ahmed will now look for an inclusive government trying to reach out to elements of the opposition that did not take part in the Djibouti process. Unfortunately, he cannot rely on the commendable Nur Hassan Hussein to serve again as prime minister. Both Ahmed and Hussein are from the Hawiye clan, and their serving together would violate the Somali political clan formula.

Despite all the political bickering, the central test of the new president’s legitimacy will be his response the country’s dire humanitarian situation. With over three million people relying on humanitarian aid, many of them internally displaced persons, Somalia is arguably the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. Western donors seem to be willing to do their part, but until now most foreign aid has not been able to reach those in need because of the extremely dangerous security situation.

Breaking this conflict trap will require a lot of fortune as well as wise political navigation if this is not to become another of more than a dozen failed peace processes in Somalia.