Pakistan: Revenge of the Penguins

After months of build-up, Pakistan has emerged from what could be called its worst political crisis since the secession of Bangladesh in 1971. Bowing to the demands of the country's judges and attorneys, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari announced on 16 March that he would restore Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry to his post.

Chaudhry was one of a number of judges sacked by former president General Pervez Musharraf in November 2007 for their refusal to bow to conformity. The firing ignited waves of protests, which were dubbed the "Penguin Revolution" – a referrence to the black and white suits worn by the protesters. The protests had culminated, on 15 March, in “The Long March," a demonstration the weaved its way from Lahore to Islamabad . The march, combined with international pressure, provided the impetus for Zardari's restoration of Chaudhry.

“Though we made every sacrifice needed to reverse General Musharraf’s illegal sacking of these brave judges, I was not sure that we would revive Pakistan’s greatest hope of an independent judiciary,” constitutional lawyer and movement leader Aitzaz Ahsan, told ISN Security Watch.

Upset over a spate of decisions that he felt encroached on his power, Musharraf demanded in March 2007 that Chaudhry leave his post – a demand the chief justice refused to comply with voluntarily. 

The general was also angered over the Pakistani Supreme Court's decision to hear cases concerning dozens of missing persons who had been secretly handed over to the US for alleged pro-Taliban and al-Qaida sentiments.
 
“There are over 1,000 missing persons, some of which are presumed to be kept in Pakistani jails while others were handed over to the United States without a trial or charge-sheet presented against them even in military courts,” Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui of the watchdog group Defence of Human Rights told ISN Security Watch.

After Musharraf’s ouster in August 2008, Zardari, the husband of late former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, became president, pledging to restore the judiciary within days of assuming office. However, until 16 March, he had failed to do so.

“The international mediation attempts by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband and Pakistani Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani had proven fruitless [until 16 March], when Zardari was forced to … surrender to public aspirations,” Dr Farzana Bari, a professor of Social Anthropology in Quad-i-Azam University, Islamabad, told ISN Security Watch.

According to Bari, Zardari’s announcement was an unprecedented one in Pakistan, where decisions made by dictators have never been reversed by public pressure.

“It is surely a revolution for the rule of law,” Senator Mushahid Hussain, a former official under Musharraf, told ISN Security Watch, terming the restoration of Chaudhry a true victory for the country’s "oppressed middle class, comprising lawyers, teachers, government servants and … businessmen." 

And few would disagree that the restoration of the judiciary has done much to save the country’s fledgling democracy.

“Thanks to Pakistan’s foreign friends and military leadership, the democratic process could be preserved and in fact strengthened by convincing President Zardari to make a compromise,” Tahira Abdullah, an Islamabad-based human rights activist, told ISN Security Watch.

And the tone has now been set for the future: It is now clear to the Pakistani public that it has the power to pressure the government to act.

On to Extremism

Indeed, the restoration of the judiciary was a welcome relief for this nation of 160-million people, divided along religious, political and ethnic lines, where fragmentation has gained increasing momemtun due to the influx of Islamic radicalism from neighboring war-torn Afghanistan.

“Pro-Taliban elements earn greater public support with each drone attack from across the Durand line besides weakening the writ and moral authority of the Pakistan government,” Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani told a press conference last week.
 
Two-time former prime minister and opposition leader Nawaz Sharif has said his party would now wage a struggle to rid the country of elements detrimental to Pakistan's well-being, including poverty, corruption and extremism.

“The success of lawyers’ movement has empowered people and they are the best army to fight against the ills of poverty, corruption and extremism,” Sharif told ISN Security Watch.
 
“The more people trust their democratic rights and their achievement through democratic means, the greater […]the rejection of extremist ideas as well as tendencies.”

It is easier said than done in the case of Pakistan, where pro-Taliban elements have blackmailed secular-minded governments in Peshawar and Islamabad to enforce decades-old sharia courts in the Swat region of the North Western Frontier Province (NWFP), administering Taliban-style quick justice.

“The West fears that Pakistan has let these areas fall to the Taliban while we are worried that their somewhat legitimate demand has been accepted after a compromise for maintaining peace there […]  which can be disrupted at any moment by radicals … who still maintain their bargaining position,” Sindh province legislator Marvi Memon told ISN Security Watch.

Forcing the Hand of Corruption
 
More than anything, since becoming president, Zardari has been harshly criticized for his failure to make good on his promise to restore the judiciary immediately, instead awarding important posts to his close friends and allies.
 
Only last six top leaders of the party including federal minister and Senate majority leader Raza Rabbani, late Benazir Bhutto’s best friend Naheed Khan and information minister Sherry Rahman resigned due to policy differences and backed the Penguin Revolution.

Ayaz Amir, noted analyst for The News newspaper, writes in his weekly column Friday: “[Army chief] General Ashfaq Kayani, the Americans - from their ambassador in Islamabad to Hillary Clinton in Washington – and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, had all been trying to get Zardari to back down a bit. But locked in his ivory tower and cut off from reality, he was deaf to these counsels, insisting that he would not step back under pressure. And perhaps hoping that if he stood his ground he could ride out the storm.”
 
Even after caving to public and international pressure,  Zardari is still highly criticized in the local media. Indeed, his latest move to black out certain electronic media transmissions and television channels has been less than popular.

 “It is but natural for these news outlets to not only celebrate successfully protecting their neutrality and independence despite governmental pressures, reminiscent of Musharraf’s military rule,” Haroon Rahsid, a veteran journalist based in Islamabad, told ISN Security Watch.
 
Certainly, the presidency can only regain its lost pride and respect once the constitutional and executive powers assumed during Musharraf’s rule are reversed and the true spirit of the constitution is restored, a longstanding demand of the opposition parties, media and civil society.
 
 “We know the president has his own courtiers and that the prime minister acts more independently than he was expected to, but Zardari repeatedly intervenes in the affairs of the executive, making an all-out confrontationmore likely,” a senior government official told ISN Security Watch on condition of anonymity.

 
Zardari: Goodwill, Too Late

President Zardari may be losing goodwill and respect amongst his party loyalists as well, and impeachment is not out of the question.
 
It takes simple majority in the national assembly, senate and the four provincial assemblies to impeach a president. Though none has been impeached so far, dictators such as Musharraf stepped down to avoid an inevitable removal through the constitution.
 
Pakistani political commentator Irfan Siddiqui told ISN Security Watch that he feared that the deepening of differences between the presidency and prime minister’s office could bode ill for Zardari’s survival.
 
However, the president’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has launched an intensive reconciliation campaign within its ranks, and though it has so far failed to yield any successes, Zardari is clearly hoping to close the gap in growing rifts that could lead to his early political demise.