Prague Falls to Animosity

These are not good days for supporters of a US missile defense shield. In fact, they could hardly be worse.

On Tuesday, 24 March, the Czech parliament passed a no-confidence vote in the center-right government, effectively ending its term in office and likely prompting early elections ahead of those originally planned for 2010. The government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek had invested an enormous amount of political capital in supporting the plan to build a missile defense shield against rogue states that included a radar base in the Czech Republic and missile interceptors across the border in Poland.

For all the divisiveness of the radar issue - opposed by a majority of Czechs, some of whom launched one of the largest civic movements in the country since the Velvet Revolution - the topic almost certainly played no role in the final vote of no-confidence. Neither did the handling of the financial crisis, a factor that has already brought down two governments in Central and Eastern Europe this year (Latvia and Hungary).

Instead, it was personal animosity between some of the country’s top political players that toppled the government. Topolanek, who heads the Civic Democrats (ODS), and Jiri Paroubek, chairman of the Social Democrats (CSSD) give every indication of despising one another and have accordingly polarized the Czech political scene to such an extent that the ruling coalition and opposition almost never work together toward the country’s better interests.

Crucial to the government’s downfall were also the votes of three rebel ODS deputies, led by Vlastimil Tlusty, finance minister in a short-lived Topolanek government after the 2006 elections. He was subsequently not offered the job in the following cabinet, a move that apparently enraged Tlusty - formerly head of ODS’ parliamentary club - to such a degree that he started openly criticizing the prime minister and opposing the government’s reform agenda.

While Tlusty’s naked bitterness was not difficult to read, Czech commentators were at a loss to explain the motivations of Jiri Paroubek, other than his intense dislike of Topolanek and his wish to embarrass his rival during the current Czech presidency of the EU. Though CSSD annihilated ODS in regional and Senate elections last fall, the leftists have been losing ground in opinion polls and remain only single digits ahead of ODS - despite the government’s implementation of a series of unpopular reforms in the health sector and elsewhere.

With the Central Bank predicting this week that the economy would shrink by 2 percent and difficult choices looming for the government, one would think the opposition would not rush ahead to take the reins of power.

Passage of the treaties tied to the radar deal was already on shaky ground before the government’s demise. CSSD, the Communists and several former Green Party deputies have all opposed the missile shield, offering arguments that ranged from fears of antagonizing Russia to claims that such a system was both unneeded and unproven.

Last week, Topolanek backtracked on a plan to put the treaties to a vote, realizing that he did not have sufficient support in parliament.

Now, Czech analysts are declaring the whole idea dead.

“The American radar project is de facto over,” Jan Machacek, a leading commentator, wrote in his daily online column for the political magazine Respekt. “The American side has also been hesitating, but the possibility of political approval of the treaties in the Czech Republic now equals zero.”

Czech officials continue, however, to engage in what some might call wishful thinking, both about their ability to eventually deliver parliamentary approval and about indications that the Obama administration might postpone implementation of the shield or cancel the plan altogether.

On Wednesday, Topolanek pledged to ask Barack Obama directly “how seriously the Americans mean it” at the upcoming EU-US summit to be held in Prague at the beginning of April. He again adopted an optimistic line, saying “In my opinion Obama will come with [information] that they are not scrapping the project but that they are not rushing with it as much as the previous administration,” according to reports.

That mild approach has contrasted with a tougher stance emanating from Warsaw. Earlier this week, Radoslaw Sikorski said: “We hope we don't regret our trust in the United States,” prompting assurances from US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton about how seriously Washington took relations with its allies.

The constellation on both sides of the Atlantic may thus be rapidly approaching a standstill that allows the US and the Czech Republic to save face.

If Topolanek heads a caretaker government until early elections, he almost certainly still won’t have enough parliamentary votes to get even a first reading through the lower house. But he can convincingly argue that he isn’t going to expend much energy on lining up supporters if the US is preparing to put the project on ice.

In Washington, the administration can use the fall of the government to fend off criticism about caving in to Russian demands using the excuse that it is better to postpone a final decision until the Czechs are better prepared to ratify the agreements.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg told the business daily Hospodarske noviny on 25 March that he and the radar’s supporters would wait until the current political chaos calmed down and would even present the treaty for approval on their way out of office if there was a chance of passage. “The project will continue,” he said. “I don’t know when and where, but it will. It’s necessary for security.”

More worrisome to Europeans is the fate of the Lisbon Treaty, designed to reform the EU, but only if it receives the approval of all 27 member states. The Czech Senate was expected to vote soon on the Treaty, and Topolanek seemed to be confident that he could convince the euroskeptic part of his party to get on board - perhaps linking passage of Lisbon (supported by CSSD) with passage of the radar deal (supported by ODS).

Now with the political situation so in flux and Topolanek claiming that he could lose control of the party, all of Europe may have to wait many more months before a vote even takes place.