South Africa's Poll Augurs

South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) has shaken off the challenges posed by a fraught leadership transition and new leader Jacob Zuma's legal troubles, with Wednesday's national and provincial election likely to deal a blow to the pretensions of opposition political movements.

The poll was never going to result in the overthrow of ANC primacy, despite significant governance failures in the past 15 years of ANC rule and the creation of a rival breakaway party, the Congress of the People (COPE).

A strong showing by COPE could have signaled a sea change in South African politics, potentially auguring the long-term emergence of the first real contest for national political power since the end of the apartheid regime. However, the initial momentum created by the party's creation has dissipated amid internal wrangling.

COPE broke away from the ANC in the wake of Zuma’s overthrow of Thabo Mbeki as movement head in December 2007. The transition in power has reportedly strengthened the hand of the communists and labor left inside the ANC.

According to a party political external page poll published in Beeld newspaper on Tuesday, the ANC (67 percent) was on the cusp of maintaining its two-thirds majority in parliament – required to push unilateral constitutional changes through the National Assembly.

ANC domination of the upper house in the bicameral legislature, the National Council of Provinces, and control of the presidency was never in question, with Zuma expected to be elected president by parliament in May.

Of interest will be whether COPE succeeds in unseating the Democratic Alliance (DA) as head of the parliamentary opposition.
 
According to the Beeld poll, the DA, which draws significant support from mixed race and white South Africans, held a slight lead over COPE, polling at 13 percent. COPE and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) trailed with 11 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively.

A resurgence of tensions and violent incidents between ANC and IFP supporters was reported during campaigning in Kwazulu-Natal where the IFP appeared to be losing significant support – a fact likely helped by the fact that Zuma is Zulu despite the ANC's traditional eschewing of tribalism.

Some analysts expect COPE to fare better in the nine provincial votes than the DA, emerging as the leading opposition party in a majority of regional houses. The DA is expected to do well in the Western Cape where leader Helen Zille, the popular mayor of Capetown, may well seize the regional premiership.

Should the election result map the pollsters' predictions, COPE and the DA may choose to coalesce with smaller parties in order to promote a unified stance against the ANC government ahead of future elections.

Meanwhile, the DA has applied to the High Court in Pretoria for a review of the decision by the National Prosecuting Authority to drop corruption charges against Zuma on 6 April.

A political storm has erupted over the release to Zuma's lawyers of intelligence wire taps of phone conversations between former head of the National Prosecuting Authority Bulelani Ngcuka and Leonard McCarthy, then-head of an elite NPA anti-crime unit. In the tapes, the pair purportedly discuss when charging Zuma would cause the most political damage. The current NPA leadership has refused a request by Ngcuka and McCarthy for the release of the incriminating tapes, referring them to the National Intelligence Agency.

Zuma's supporters have described the tapes as demonstrating the existence of a high-level political conspiracy against their man, while some opposition leaders have called for an inquiry into why and how intelligence tapes were released.

Legislation was passed by the ANC government in 2008 (officially confirmed this January) disbanding McCarthy's Scorpions unit, which had been at the forefront of efforts to battle official corruption, ostensibly over its overstepping the bounds of the constitution and law in investigations.

external page Quoted at the time by IOL, the DA's Dianne Kohler-Barnard countered, "This is quite simply a political decision, taken by the ruling party to protect its leaders from any further criminal investigations."

COPE also seems willing to push for the revival of the charges against Zuma and has external page accused the ANC of seeking to buy votes with food parcels and vouchers for the poor. It has also external page alleged discrimination in state-broadcaster the South African Broadcasting Corporation's coverage of campaign events.

The spy and Zuma corruption scandals appear to speak to the progressive undermining of the independence of the judiciary and police, a clear danger in a one-party dominated state seeking to cope with perceived endemic official corruption.

Race relations also remain a sticky issue, with ongoing efforts to promote a breaking down of unofficial ethnic segregation and socio-economic divides hampered in many areas by extant class, tribal, racial and other divisions. Affirmative action programs have promoted social mobility for a minority of the black populace, though the corrupt preferment of ANC loyalists has often been external page alleged.

A lack of employment prospects and personal security concerns has led to a significant brain-drain, with large South African population concentrations now spread across the globe from New Zealand to Israel. Diaspora South Africans have been given the right to cast absentee ballots by a March court ruling, but the impact of these votes is likely to be minimal.

Under Mbeki, the ANC responded appallingly to the AIDS epidemic (until 2007) and has since maintained problematic positions on the Robert Mugabe regime in neighboring Zimbabwe. The ANC has also demonstrably failed to deliver meaningful change for the impoverished majority.

Despite this, it is clear that the significant personal appeal of Zuma and the support garnered by the ANC leadership of the anti-apartheid struggle have yet to dissipate despite recent troubles.

It will be up to Zuma to demonstrate a desire for an inclusive politics and shift in government priorities required to address the multiple social and economic challenges faced by South Africa. In this, the perceived rise in influence of the left within the ANC and Zuma's own image as a champion of the poor may prove a positive despite investor concerns.

Nevertheless, the vehemence of ANC campaigning against senior opposition figures signals that coming years may see a dangerous retrenchment of one-movement rule with the risk this poses for the progressive undermining of state institutions.