Publications

This publication assesses how Chinese strategists perceive the Sino-Japanese naval balance, finding that Beijing anticipates an intensifying naval rivalry with Tokyo in the coming years. Indeed, the t...chevron_right

This publication examines the security implications of the coronavirus pandemic for the US. The text’s author contends that while some in the US talk of bringing about radical change regarding the cou...chevron_right

The topic of this issue of the RAD is Russian Orthodoxy. First, Nikolay Mitrokhin discusses the strategy and tactics of the Russian Orthodox Church towards Ukraine since former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s attack on the church in the country under the Moscow Patriarchate. Second, Alexander Ponomariov looks at the international implications of the declaration of autocephaly, or independence, of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine.chevron_right

This report, based on interviews with policy officials, diplomats, industry and security experts, and others, examines China’s evolving commercial and political interests in Sudan. Insights include 1)...chevron_right

The articles in this edition of Conflict Trends look at 1) an adaptive approach for coping with complexity in conflict resolution and peacebuilding; 2) the African Solidarity Initiative (ASI), which a...chevron_right

The seventeen chapters in this yearbook examine terrorism developments and counterterrorism responses around the globe. More specifically, this 2020 edition considers three emerging themes in the current security environment—namely, the demise of the so-called Islamic State’s (IS) ‘caliphate’ and what that means globally and regionally for Australia; the increased threat from right-wing extremism; and the role of technology, particularly social media, in propagating violent extremist ideologies. It also includes thematic chapters on mental health, strategic policing, the media, the terror–crime nexus and terrorist innovation.chevron_right

This report contends there is growing evidence of strategic convergence in China and Russia’s digital influence campaigns. Their efforts have already proven mutually reinforcing on several key issues—...chevron_right

In this article, Névine Schepers explains why the next six months are critical for the survival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program. In doing so, she explains how Europe not only has a strategic interest but also a role to play in preserving the deal, including through coordinating a response with Russia and China as well as engaging with the US on Iran. Further, Schepers highlights how the corona crisis has presented Europe an opportunity to carry out this role.chevron_right

Oliver Thränert argues that the corona crisis underscores the importance of science-based policy advice. In line with this, Thränert contends that in Europe, cooperation between policy-makers and think tanks must improve. European institutions should therefore aim to increase the exchange of personnel between governments and think tanks as well as the practice-oriented training of think tank staff. Further, the establishment of interdisciplinary policy consultancy should be accompanied by an increase in policy-oriented formats and an improvement in topic selection.chevron_right

For the first time, Switzerland has applied to become a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. Fabien Merz writes that Switzerland has a good chance of being elected. However, the candidacy has proven controversial domestically. In this analysis, Merz provides an overview of the UN Security Council, Switzerland’s application as well as the opportunities and risks a successful application could create for the country.chevron_right

In this report, Boas Lieberherr looks at the 37 ceasefires in Liberia between 1990 and 2018, all related to the conflict over government incompatibility. Key insights include that 1) 29 ceasefires were related to peace processes, 2) 16 ceasefires were declared unilaterally, 8 were bilateral and 13 multilateral, and 3) 28 out of the 37 ceasefires involved various external mediators.chevron_right

Henrik Larsen writes that Russia appears to have embraced the role of a spoiler against Western interests in the Western Balkans, viewing obstacles to NATO and EU integration in the region as opportunities ready for exploitation. China is also making inroads in the Western Balkans, creating new financial and economic dependencies that complicate the EU accession processes. Indeed, Larsen suggests that EU-China competition for the region is emerging in some respects as more important than the more static NATO-Russia rivalry.chevron_right

This issue of the CAD focuses on the structural challenges that the coronavirus pandemic has highlighted in the South Caucasus. First, Ia Eradze writes that Georgia’s reaction to the pandemic has been viewed positively by its population, but the crisis has uncovered notable structural socioeconomic issues. Second, Armen Grigoryan examines how the government of Armenia dealt with the pandemic. Third, Bahruz Samadov posits that while Azerbaijan was hit by the pandemic and the temporary collapse of oil prices, the country's leadership decided to use the crisis as an opportunity to silence political opponents.chevron_right

In this report, Rafaela Catena looks at the 133 ceasefires in Somalia between 1989 and 2018. Insights include 1) that 29 out of 32 of government ceasefires related to the peace process, while 6 were also humanitarian; 2) 49 of the non-state actor ceasefires were related to the peace process, 6 were humanitarian, and 53 to other reasons; 3) 10 ceasefires were declared unilaterally, 11 multilaterally, and 112 bilaterally; and 4) 89 ceasefires involved mediation.chevron_right

From posting photos and videos to tracking physical activity, apps can do almost anything, but while they may seem like harmless fun, they may also pose a threat to personal data and national security. In this paper, Susan Ariel Aaronson compares the different responses of the US, Canada and Germany to data risks posed by popular apps such as FaceApp, Facebook, Strava, TikTok and ToTok.chevron_right