Publications

This publication provides an analysis of documented trade in small arms, with a particular focus on South-east Asia. More specifically, the report identifies 1) the top and major small arms exporters ...chevron_right

In this publication, Aude Fleurant et al provides an overview trends in international arms sales, based on SIPRI’s extensive Arms Industry Database. Key insights include 1) the arms sales of the world’s 100 largest arms-producing and military services companies totaled $420 billion in 2018; 2) this was an increase of 4.6% compared with 2017; 3) this growth was primarily driven by increases in sales by the highest-ranked companies—specifically the top five companies, all of which are based in the US, and more.chevron_right

How can third party peacemakers make good decisions when faced with competing priorities? In this article, Simon J. A. Mason, Owen Frazer et al propose a framework to help such actors. They argue that the difficultly of such decisions can be eased and poor compromises avoided by 1) making oneself aware of how a decision is perceived; and 2) exploring a set of different strategies for creating new unexpected options. The article also demonstrates the real-world benefits of the framework through examples from the authors’ peacemaking activities in Myanmar, Thailand and Ukraine.chevron_right

This publication looks at the protests in Kazakhstan, which began in September 2019, against the increasing influence of China in the country. More specifically, the text’s author addresses 1) the sim...chevron_right

This report looks at those whose job it is to explain the logic of foreign policy and analyze global trends in Russia. More specifically, the text first addresses the role of think tanks in Russian fo...chevron_right

The edition of the RAD focuses on Russia’s economy. First, Peter Rutland posits that Russia is an ailing petrostate, with the country facing three sources of instability: shifts in international energy markets, climate change and growing domestic tensions. Rutland suggests Russia’s economic circumstances may ultimately lead to a new political model. Secondly, Stephen K. Wegren assesses the effects and consequences of Russia’s food embargo against Western nations, which essentially shut off access to the Russian food market. Wegren particularly focuses on the effects on Russian domestic food producers, food exporters, and consumers.chevron_right

Miguel Alberto Gomez writes that as the number of politically relevant cyber incidents rises, the correct attribution of these incidents becomes ever more crucial. In this publication, Gomez investigates how foreign policy elites evaluate cyber operations, finding that pre-existing beliefs and perspectives often shape attribution. Due to such perspectives, elites are susceptible to false-flag operations and insufficiently accounting for new information. More information about a cyber-incident is thus not enough to guarantee sound attribution. This reinforces the need to develop mechanisms that minimize the impact of biased judgements on state behavior.chevron_right

The 2019 edition of the CSS’ annual “Bulletin on Swiss Security Policy” includes chapters on the development of armed forces in small states, Switzerland and NATO, the digital transformation of peace promotion, and the dilemma in dealing with Western foreign fighters detained in Syria and Iraq. The publication also features an interview with Ambassador Pälvi Pulli, head of security policy at the Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport (DDPS).chevron_right

High-profile events, such as the G20 Summits and the Olympic Games, are increasingly influenced by globalization, geopolitical developments and digitalization. Alice Crelier writes that these elements open the door for the proliferation of nefarious cyber activities. Due to their costs, political implications, reach through media and reputational significance, such events cannot neglect cybersecurity. In response, Crelier here defines an approach to big events and addresses key issues regarding cybersecurity organizational processes and incidents. To do so, she also uses the G20 Leaders’ Summits and recent Olympic Games as case studies.chevron_right

This issue of the CAD discusses the impact of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the South Caucasus. First, Mariam Zabakhidze, Irakli Gabriadze, Rezo Beradze and Giorgi Khishtovani provide a concise overview of how relations between Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and China have advanced against the background of the BRI. Second, Evelina Gambino examines the development of transit infrastructure in Georgia and its relevance to the entire region. Third, Susanne Fehlings focuses on people-to-people contacts between Georgian and Chinese individuals in light of their governments’ BRI cooperation.chevron_right

In this CAD issue, 1) Farid Guliyev discusses how recent developments in global energy markets are likely to have a negative impact on Caspian energy projects; 2) Marco Siddi looks at Iran’s possible contribution to the Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP) and the EU’s energy supply in the face of geopolitical challenges such as US foreign policy and sanctions; 3) Tracey German explains Georgia’s role as an energy transit state and energy hub; and 4) Agha Bayramov analyzes trans-Caspian gas deliveries to Europe and the ecological impediments that stand in their way.chevron_right

In this CSS Policy Perspective, Benjamin Scharte argues that critical infrastructures are becoming more complex and interdependent, which in turn is increasing their vulnerability. The resilience of these systems against disruption and failure is thus crucial. According to the Scharte, engineers can help increase critical infrastructure resilience if they acknowledge the complexity and socio-technical nature of such infrastructure. To help bring this about, engineering studies should include technological aspects, but also address findings from the social sciences on topics such as normative issues or proper communication.chevron_right

The supply of essential goods and services in modern societies has become more volatile due to the globalization of the flow of goods. In this article, Andrin Hauri explains how in Switzerland, enterprises and the state cooperate on national economic supply to ensure the provision of vital commodities and services in times of crises. He also outlines that changes are required if this system is to continue function as it should in the future.chevron_right

Ceasefires are an instrument that is frequently used to try and stop violence. To improve the effectiveness of ceasefires in advancing peace, concerted efforts by mediators, policymakers and researchers are needed to better understand the way they interact with the political decisions made in peace processes. In response to this challenge, Govinda Clayton, Simon J. A. Mason, Valerie Sticher and Claudia Wiehler answer a number of questions regarding ceasefires, including 1) what they are; 2) their role; 3) why they fail, and 4) what the future may hold.chevron_right

The supply of essential goods and services in modern societies has become more volatile due to the globalization of the flow of goods. In this article, Andrin Hauri explains how in Switzerland, enterprises and the state cooperate on national economic supply to ensure the provision of vital commodities and services in times of crises. He also outlines that changes are required if this system is to continue function as it should in the future.chevron_right