Publications

This report examines the struggle within Afghanistan’s National Unity Government over the country’s security sector and the related impact on the recruitment of Hezb-e Islami commanders and fighters in the security forces as agreed to under a 2016 peace deal.chevron_right

This article contends that rivalry persists between Russia and Turkey in their shared neighborhood of the Black Sea and the South Caucasus. However, the text’s authors also note that Moscow-Ankara relations have warmed overall since 2015 downing of a...chevron_right

The three articles in this edition of the RAD focus on the North Caucasus. The first article looks at ethnicity and elite mobility, highlighting how the upward mobility of non-Russian regional heads i...chevron_right

This report argues that despite widespread recognition that the only way of ending the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan is a negotiated settlement, the understanding of the Taliban’s thinking on the subject is remarkably scant. In response, the text’s authors attempt...chevron_right

This issue of the CAD first focuses on 1) how unofficial ‘under-the-table out-of-pocket payments’ contribute to unequal access to healthcare services in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, and 2) why the...chevron_right

This edition of the RAD first analyses the current state of Russia-Ukraine gas trade and provides an outlook for the future, noting how this area of commerce has been unable to disentangle itself from...chevron_right

Chris Painter contends that the past few years has seen a substantial increase in state attacks on critical information systems around the globe. Indeed, the pace and severity of these attacks show no sign of declining, in good part because there have usually been little or no consequences or costs imposed on those who carried them out. So how can the international community create credible consequences for state-sponsored cyberattacks and help deter their use? Here are Painter’s eight key recommendations.chevron_right

This publication looks at how the growing share of Africa’s urban residents living in slums is creating another source of fragility on the continent. In particular, the text’s author highlights 1) that slum dweller numbers are rising as a result of an expanding and increasingly youthful...chevron_right

This report highlights the risks that could stem from the construction of the proposed Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, which would bring gas from Russia to Germany. In particular, the author highlights how the proposed pipeline would have negative...chevron_right

This paper argues that in 2018, it’s more appropriate to see al-Qaeda as not only a terrorist group, but as the progenitor and promoter of a distinct theological–historical–political ideology. As a result, the text’s author...chevron_right

This report provides an overview of the Trump administration’s fiscal year 2019 budget request for the US Department of Defense (DoD). The authors contend the 2019 request presented a rare opportunity for the DoD, one that has...chevron_right

Recent cyber defense studies has shown that there is a qualitative increase in the numbers of cyber-competent actors, as well as an increased technical sophistication of malicious digital tools they are using and the vectors they exploit. These three areas constitute the “who”, “what” and “how” of cyber operations. What is missing from much of these analyses is the “when” question: in which specific geopolitical contexts are cyber operations being deployed. This Trend Analysis examines a series of high-profile cyber incidents with a view to answering this question. In doing so, it identifies five specific geo- and socio-political contexts in which cyber operations play an important role. These are open international conflict, internal civil war, economic and political tensions between states, and strategic rivalry. The Trend Analysis also shows that there are no specific combinations of actor, vector tool or context. This makes it very difficult for policymakers and practitioners to predict the occurrence or severity of a cyber operation.chevron_right

This Risk and Resilience Report uses Zürich as a case study to examine how changing demographic, economic and cultural conditions affect social vulnerability to hazards in generally affluent societies...chevron_right

In December 1948, the UN General Assembly adopted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), the first document to lay out the fundamental civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights...chevron_right

Promoting peaceful ways of addressing violent political conflict with religious dimensions is an integral part of contemporary Swiss political culture and peace policy. But what key elements and princ...chevron_right