Publications

This brief examines how volatile oil prices have pushed the Gulf States to try to diversify their economies, possibly introduce a VAT, and yet avoid budget cuts. The brief’s authors conclude that true structural changes in the region are unlikely because of its political and economic frailties.chevron_right

How accurate is the international print media’s depiction of jihadi radicalization and the foreign fighter phenomenon? In this text, Rita Augestad Knudsen analyzes the reporting that’s been done on Kosovo, a country which has been characterized as a “hotbed for radical...chevron_right

Chronic conflict continues to thwart the responses that are needed to combat Somalia’s prolonged drought and humanitarian crisis. This ICG brief, which is part of a series that also examines the famine threats in Yemen, South Sudan and Nigeria, urges Somali authorities to…chevron_right

150-200 tons of amber is illegally extracted in Ukraine every year, in contrast to the 4 tons mined legally. This commentary delves into the consequences of this booming trade, which is closely linked to criminal groups, large-scale corruption, and the disproportionate power of...chevron_right

This commentary takes stock of the most important EU-related issues facing Emmanuel Macron at the start of his presidency. They include 1) stabilizing the Eurozone; 2) stemming and/or managing refugee flows into Europe; and 3) establishing a substantive European defense and security policy. Due to the broad range and complexity of these issues, Macron will have to choose carefully where to concentrate his efforts, especially if he hopes to have a lasting impact over time.chevron_right

This paper analyzes how a linked group of seven southern EU countries (Cyprus, Spain, France, Greece, Italy, Malta and Portugal) may help shape European policies in a post-Brexit environment. After describing the group’s troubled beginnings in 2013, the text’s author suggests...chevron_right

This piece advocates greater strategic and economic cooperation between India and the US, primarily to check China’s growing power in the Indo-Pacific Region. A coherent, mutually beneficial strategy could be built, for example, on the existing Logistics Exchange Agreement, and on...chevron_right

Central America’s Northern Triangle – El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras – is in dire straits. Fifty thousand murders over the last three years, three million people ‘voting with their feet’, gang governance, and an atmosphere of impunity and corruption all confirm that...chevron_right

The Russian Statistics Office (Rosstat) recently published new figures on the state of the country’s economy. The numbers are much better than had been expected, but are they reliable? The author of this commentary has her doubts. She thinks that Rosstat is...chevron_right

The EU’s Global Strategy insists on integrated, multi-dimensional approaches to conflict prevention, management and resolution. That reads well on paper, argues this commentary, but the difficulty of transforming an ambition into reality couldn’t be more obvious than in the ongoing crisis in Macedonia...chevron_right

This brief discusses the stability-threatening problems the Sultanate of Oman is about to face, which include its oil-related economic troubles and the question of succession. In the last case, Sultan Quaboos has no officially designated an heir, which is potentially...chevron_right

This brief initially takes stock of Trump’s first 100 days in office, including the domestic and foreign policies he has put in place and the reactions they’ve precipitated. Based on their analysis, the text’s authors then speculate on what lies ahead, particularly...chevron_right

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its Syrian affiliates face a stark choice, argues this ICG report. They can risk their gains in Northern Syria by continuing to prioritize the PKK's fight against Turkey, or they can focus on…chevron_right

Given that global oversupply has reduced the economic and geopolitical importance of regional oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea, why is China persisting with its own deep-water projects? Like others, the author of this commentary believes Beijing is...chevron_right

Technologies that are designed to improve transparency and accountability in Africa have thus far yielded disappointing results. This brief investigates the reasons behind these failures and recommends ways to solve the overall problem. According to the...chevron_right