Publications

Donald Trump’s Middle East policy represents a significant change from that of Barack Obama. The president is seeking to bolster Israel and Saudi Arabia, in particular, and to isolate Iran. This agenda has emerged in piecemeal fashion rather than as part of a coherent strategy – and there are few indications that administration officials have considered the long-term implications of their approach.chevron_right

This issue of the CAD addresses the issue of quality assurance of higher education in Georgia and Armenia. 1) the first article by Mariam Anashukeli discusses the internationalization of higher education and how it can increase the quality of education in Georgia; 2) the second article by Diana Lezhava reviews the practices of external quality assurance in Georgia; 3) the third article by Edith Soghomonyan and Gohar Hovhannisyan tackles the underrepresentation of student bodies in the quality assurance system in Armenia.chevron_right

In this analysis, Marie Baezner provides an overview of five cyber-related conflicts recently reviewed by the CSS. These include 1) the US-Russia cyber rivalry; 2) cyber and information warfare in the Ukrainian conflict; 3) cyber activities in the Syrian civil war; 4) tensions in US-China relations over cybersecurity; and 5) cyber and information warfare in European elections. Through this review, Baezner also identifies key trends, including those relating to the politicization of cyberspace; how context shapes the use of cybertools; and disagreements between states regarding legitimate uses of cyberspace.chevron_right

This edition of the RAD assesses the economic risks and opportunities for Putin’s fourth term as President. Firstly, Emily Ferris argues that regional administrations are likely to play an increasingly important role in decision-making as Russia continues its efforts to attract investment in its Far East, although diplomatic disagreements will ensure that such investment remains restricted. Secondly, Ben Aris suggests that the regime faces a tough task in its efforts to develop a new economic model based on investment and innovation, because the population want this change to be gradual, rather than rapid. The result, he posits, is likely to be a hybrid model of introducing competition into the economy, but leaving the state in control of the main levers of power.chevron_right

This edition examines the role and influence of the siloviki in Russian politics, economics and society. Firstly, Michael Rochlitz addresses the question of whether Putin controls or is controlled by the siloviki, noting a shift in Putin’s worldview to one more in line with that of the siloviki. Secondly, V.A. Nomokonov & V.V. Filippov analyze the role of the shadow state and crime in Russia, tracing its increasing influence on political, economic and legal affairs. Thirdly, Robert Orttung reviews Peter Reddaway’s recent book on Putin’s symbiotic relationship with the siloviki.chevron_right

This report by Robert S Dewar provides cyber exercise organizers with important points to bear in mind when staging an exercise. It does this by examining the After Action Reports (AARs) of a number of national and international cyber exercises, and using information from expert interviews. The report sets out a number of types of exercises, which can be conducted and uses the AARs and interviews to identify key points, such as the importance of a clear context for the exercise, and the need for realistic, flexible scenarios.chevron_right

Although irregular migration to Europe has declined, avoiding a recurrence of events in 2015 is seen as paramount. The EU is increasingly relying on cooperation with third countries to reduce migration pressure. Such cooperation, however, often fails to sufficiently consider the political and economic contexts of partners, which could ultimately compromise the EU’s own migration aims and values.chevron_right

This report attempts to shed light on current cybersecurity policies as a facet of a country’s overall national security policy, particularly how cyberdefense is embedded in a state’s cybersecurity posture. To that end, it examines the policies of four important European actors – France, Finland, Germany and the United Kingdom. The authors find that despite differences in these countries’ approaches, there is a trend toward civilian leadership and oversight and centralizing control and implementation responsibility for cybersecurity and cyberdefense.chevron_right

Disputes over border management, gas prices, and the recognition of Crimea: Belarus is increasingly at odds with its closest ally Russia. President Lukashenko’s regime emphasizes its independent foreign policy as a country between Russia and the West. There are signs of Belarus strategically reorienting, but the actions taken also mirror tactics used to extort lucrative concessions from both East and West.chevron_right

Russian efforts to integrate some post-Soviet states into the common framework of the Eurasian Economic Union could have a lasting impact—Europe should take note.chevron_right

This CSS Hotspot Analysis examines the use of cybertools in the context of tensions over territorial claims involving China and other states in Southeast Asia and the South China Sea. Southeast Asia has a rapidly developing digital economy and attracts substantial investment, but cyberspace in the region has become a place for cyberespionage campaigns, which involve actors spying on adversaries, businesses and international organizations. These activities increase the risk of misinterpretation and misattribution in cyberspace, thereby increasing the potential for an escalation of conventional conflict. The analysis also details the international effects of these cyber-activities, including how ASEAN has become a platform for the discussion of cybersecurity.chevron_right

This issue of the Caucasus Analytical Digest addresses the international dimension to gauge the perceived reactions to Armenia’s velvet revolution, as well as expected changes in Armenia’s regional setting: 1) the first article addresses the main issues that the revolutionary movement now in power faces in Armenian foreign policy and traces the challenges ahead; 2) the second contribution looks at how Azerbaijani political elites perceived changes in Armenian domestic politics; 3) the third piece, on Georgia, argues as to why events in Armenia will have little impact on Georgia; 4) the fourth text argues that the EU is being fundamentally challenged in its ability to diffuse its normative standards on democracy, human rights, and rule of law in its vicinity; 5) the fifth article looks at the reasons why the Armenian revolution was largely unnoticed in Moscow.chevron_right

Switzerland’s contemporary threat and risk landscape has changed in recent years. Indeed, the risks that now draw the attention of experts and policymakers now include cyber-attacks, pandemics, terror...chevron_right

Sanctions have largely failed to thwart Russian aggression in Ukraine since 2014. In search of diplomatic solutions, it is high time to adapt the strategy and allow for a gradual easing of sanctions – if Russia takes de-escalatory steps.chevron_right

Switzerland’s contemporary threat and risk landscape has changed in recent years. Indeed, the risks that now draw the attention of experts and policymakers now include cyber-attacks, pandemics, terrorist attacks and blackouts. But which risks do the Swiss public perceive as the most worrisome? How does risk perception differ between experts and members of the general population? Are risks perceived differently depending on whether they are natural, social or technical in origin? And what are the information needs of the Swiss public with regard to these threats? This CSS Risk and Resilience Report addresses these questions and more.chevron_right