Publications

This issue focuses on the methodological challenges of wartime polling. Denis Volkov engages with criticisms of Levada surveys. Bryn Rosenfeld answers four questions about wartime surveys. Jeremy Morris challenges the very existence of public opinion. Heiko Pleines introduces Discuss Data’s collection of open-​access raw opinion data. Anna Biriukova discusses wartime polling by Aleksei Navalny’s Anti-​Corruption Foundation. Elena Koneva and Alexander Chilingaryan highlight how the sociology of war is crucial for policymakers. Aleksei Minialo reflects on activist polling. Finally, Emil Kamalov, Ivetta Sergeeva, Margarita Zavadskaya, and Veronica Kostenko discuss their original panel survey data of the most recent wave of emigration.chevron_right

Advocacy for a rules-​based order has come to define the foreign policy of various countries. What this concept entails, however, remains vague, and significant differences in respective understandings persist. From the perspective of its proponents, part of the term’s utility may lie in its ambiguity. The question is whether the new terminology can contribute to a common understanding of the essential rules, norms, and institutions that should govern international relations.chevron_right

This CSS Risk and Resilience Report provides a comparative analysis of national risk assessments. Specifically, it compares the assessments made by nine European countries and Swiss Re respectively of five types of cross-​border risks: electricity supply shortage, nuclear accident, pandemic, severe space weather, and volcanic outbreak. Even though the selected countries have correlated risk profiles for these hazards, the report finds noteworthy differences in their estimated likelihood and impact. The report also highlights a number of general considerations for national risk assessments and crossborder risks.chevron_right

Moscow’s presence on the African continent increased in the years preceding its invasion of Ukraine. Now, this presence is intimately linked to the war and to the resultant political and economic struggle.chevron_right

Most elements constituting modern life, from the economy to social habits, are now characterized by using digital technologies and the consumption of goods and services that depend on complex, interconnected, transnational, and, at times, vulnerable, supply chains. Critical dependencies and heightened (cyber) threats combined with strategic competitiveness are increasingly turning the issue of supply chain security into matters of national and international security. Located at the intersection of supply chains and cyber are the topics of software supply chains attacks and broader mitigation and protection elements that fall under the term cyber supply chain risk management. Due to their heightened relevance in the current security discourse, their potential destructive and strategic effects, and their increased use by malicious actors (state-​linked and criminal), software supply chain attacks are the focus of this CSS Cyberdefense Report. The overarching aim of this report is to provide an illustrative overview of software supply chain attacks and to raise awareness of the types of attacks, their uses, and their potential impacts.chevron_right

The topic of this issue is Informality and Informal Practices in the Time of COVID-​19: The Case of Georgia. Firstly, Irakli Korkia addresses corruption by analyzing 1) simplified state procurement procedures related to the healthcare sector and quarantine zones and 2) the vaccine deployment process; secondly, Rhiannon Segar discusses how informal forms of social capital have impacted the dissemination of information during the pandemic in the Georgian-​Armenian and Georgian-​Azerbaijani ethnic minority communities; thirdly, Tamar Tolordava underlines the importance of institutions (formal and informal) to help citizens learn about and internalize the new rules and restrictions important to defeating the pandemic.chevron_right

The topic of this issue is Hidden Resistance to the Russian-​Ukrainian War Inside Russia. Irina Meyer-​Olimpieva explores the network of volunteers helping Ukrainian refugees who have ended up on Russian territory while fleeing the war zone; Daria Zakharova examines attacks against Russian military enlistment offices and how the Russian state-​run media discuss them; Vera Dubina and Alexandra Arkhipova focus on the less visible, “silent” forms of resistance to the regime; Katarina Meister considers the situation of Russian protest music within and outside the country, as well as online.chevron_right

The US-​China rivalry continues to intensify as Xi Jinping enters his third term. The United States, working with allies, should aim both to strengthen its competitive position and to stabilize the relationship.chevron_right

The 2022 issue of the CSS’ annual “Bulletin on Swiss Security Policy” again deals with current issues in Swiss foreign and security policy. It starts with an interview with Federal President and Head of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), Ignazio Cassis. In the following five contributions, our authors address the use of drones in the military (Constant Despont, Dominika Kunertova and Niklas Masuhr), Switzerland's security and defense policy cooperation in the shadow of the Ukraine war (Amos Dossi and Sophie-​Charlotte Fischer), Swiss priorities in its UN Security Council membership (Fabien Merz), the interconnections between peace mediation and climate protection (Simon J.A. Mason and Olivia Lazard), and the role of technology in monitoring ceasefires (Alexander Hug and Simon J.A. Mason). As every year, this Bulletin also presents three CSS projects.chevron_right

This issue considers the impact of Russia’s war on Ukraine on its relations with its long-​term regional allies. Firstly, Luca Anceschi traces the ambiguous positioning adopted by the Central Asia states, noting that recent developments in their relationships to Moscow should be understood within the context of the wider processes of authoritarian consolidation currently at play in the region. Secondly, Armen Grigoryan focuses on the Armenia–Russian relationship, reviewing how Armenia’s political elite and experts have responded to the impact on Armenia’s own security predicament.chevron_right

This edition focuses on the Wagner Group private military company. Firstly, Andreas Heinemann-​Grüder summarizes the development of Wagner since 2014/15, highlighting that it operates in coordination with Russian security agencies as a parallel or shadow army that can rarely be held accountable. Secondly, Stephen Aris considers how Wagner’s prominent, if not officially acknowledged, role in the offensive on Ukraine has accelerated a process of semi-​privatizing certain functions of state security.chevron_right

Climate change is increasing the frequency and scope of security challenges. This calls for greater collaboration across formerly often siloed policy fields, as illustrated in the context of climate change adaptation by Swiss Civil Protection and Switzerland’s priorities on the UN Security Council.chevron_right

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has far-​reaching consequences for the global energy system and for Russia itself. Sanctions and fewer Russian natural gas deliveries to Europe have disturbed the balance between supply and demand in the fossil energy market. Whereas Europe has alternatives to Russian energy, these developments are threatening Russia’s status as a global commodities power.chevron_right

The war in Ukraine is the first large-​scale, high-​intensity military conflict in which both sides deploy different types of drones extensively and to different military effects. European countries should take note to adopt a holistic approach on drones and anti-​drone defenses.chevron_right

The topic of this issue is “How the War Affects the Eurasian Economic Union.” Firstly, Alexander Libman and Anastassia Obydenkova review key EAEU trends: concerns about EAEU membership and about excessive dependence on Russia, difficult trade relations because of Western sanctions, a beginning recession for the entire region, sanctions against Russia prompting Eurasian autocracies to question their own connections with the West; secondly, Erik Davtyan analyzes the impact of the war on Armenia within the EAEU, arguing that the war limits Armenia’s capacity to instrumentalize the Eurasian agenda due to the asymmetry in economic power between Russia and other members.chevron_right