Publications

In this article, Névine Schepers explains why the next six months are critical for the survival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program. In doing so, she explains how Europe not only has a strategic interest but also a role to play in preserving the deal, including through coordinating a response with Russia and China as well as engaging with the US on Iran. Further, Schepers highlights how the corona crisis has presented Europe an opportunity to carry out this role.chevron_right

Oliver Thränert argues that the corona crisis underscores the importance of science-based policy advice. In line with this, Thränert contends that in Europe, cooperation between policy-makers and think tanks must improve. European institutions should therefore aim to increase the exchange of personnel between governments and think tanks as well as the practice-oriented training of think tank staff. Further, the establishment of interdisciplinary policy consultancy should be accompanied by an increase in policy-oriented formats and an improvement in topic selection.chevron_right

For the first time, Switzerland has applied to become a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. Fabien Merz writes that Switzerland has a good chance of being elected. However, the candidacy has proven controversial domestically. In this analysis, Merz provides an overview of the UN Security Council, Switzerland’s application as well as the opportunities and risks a successful application could create for the country.chevron_right

In this report, Boas Lieberherr looks at the 37 ceasefires in Liberia between 1990 and 2018, all related to the conflict over government incompatibility. Key insights include that 1) 29 ceasefires were related to peace processes, 2) 16 ceasefires were declared unilaterally, 8 were bilateral and 13 multilateral, and 3) 28 out of the 37 ceasefires involved various external mediators.chevron_right

Henrik Larsen writes that Russia appears to have embraced the role of a spoiler against Western interests in the Western Balkans, viewing obstacles to NATO and EU integration in the region as opportunities ready for exploitation. China is also making inroads in the Western Balkans, creating new financial and economic dependencies that complicate the EU accession processes. Indeed, Larsen suggests that EU-China competition for the region is emerging in some respects as more important than the more static NATO-Russia rivalry.chevron_right

This issue of the CAD focuses on the structural challenges that the coronavirus pandemic has highlighted in the South Caucasus. First, Ia Eradze writes that Georgia’s reaction to the pandemic has been viewed positively by its population, but the crisis has uncovered notable structural socioeconomic issues. Second, Armen Grigoryan examines how the government of Armenia dealt with the pandemic. Third, Bahruz Samadov posits that while Azerbaijan was hit by the pandemic and the temporary collapse of oil prices, the country's leadership decided to use the crisis as an opportunity to silence political opponents.chevron_right

In this report, Rafaela Catena looks at the 133 ceasefires in Somalia between 1989 and 2018. Insights include 1) that 29 out of 32 of government ceasefires related to the peace process, while 6 were also humanitarian; 2) 49 of the non-state actor ceasefires were related to the peace process, 6 were humanitarian, and 53 to other reasons; 3) 10 ceasefires were declared unilaterally, 11 multilaterally, and 112 bilaterally; and 4) 89 ceasefires involved mediation.chevron_right

As with previous editions, Strategic Trends 2020 offers a concise analysis of major developments in world affairs, with a primary focus on international security. The chapters explore 1) the domestic determinants of the US-China rivalry and their international-level implications; 2) why a US-China war can no longer be treated as a remote and implausible prospect; 3) the implications for Europe of China’s targeted influence attempts and its Belt and Road initiative (BRI); and 4) the BRI and its potential effectiveness from a regional perspective, focusing on Eurasia.chevron_right

Nowhere is China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) more evident than in Eurasia, which spans from Central Asia to Eastern Europe. China is transforming this space with physical infrastructure, but also...chevron_right

US-​Chinese rivalry is becoming the prime mover of global affairs. Though the long-​term trajectory of this critical relationship is uncertain, several salient factors are already apparent: pernicious...chevron_right

As the strategic rivalry between the US and China intensifies, militarized crises are becoming more likely and a major military conflict is no longer as remote as it once seemed. The far-​reaching mod...chevron_right

China’s growing influence in Europe has the potential to create new geo-​economic divides. Its purchase of critical infrastructures and successful promotion of national high-​tech giants hold long-​te...chevron_right

This issue of the RAD focuses on Russia and the Covid-19 Pandemic. First, Judy Twigg analyzes the challenge the coronavirus pandemic poses to Russia. The author contends that Russia’s approach to containing the virus and the healthcare system’s condition raise serious questions about the efficacy of the much-vaunted “power vertical” in this instance. Second, Gunter Deuber looks at the two simultaneous economic crises facing Russia: an oil market shock and the impact of the coronavirus crisis.chevron_right

This RAD issue focuses on Russian President Vladimir Putin. First, Caroline von Gall and Laura Jäckel analyze current Russian constitutional reform, including what it means for presidential power. Second, Fabian Burkhardt examines how these reforms have further merged the institution of the Russian presidency with the current president. Third, Ulrich Schmid addresses what the constitutional reforms highlight about national identity in Russia, particularly regarding the role of ethnic Russians. Fourth, Gwendolyn Sasse covers how often the official Kremlin website refers to the annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine.chevron_right

Oliver Thränert writes that since its entry into force on 5 March 1970, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has established an international norm against the proliferation of nuclear weapons and served as the basis for a comprehensive non-proliferation regime. However, the NPT has been mired in a crisis of credibility for years and there is little prospect for a successful review conference for the treaty in 2020, something which takes place every five years. In this analysis, Thränert looks back on the NPT’s history, its achievements, the role of Switzerland and more.chevron_right