Publications

Ceasefires are an instrument that is frequently used to try and stop violence. To improve the effectiveness of ceasefires in advancing peace, concerted efforts by mediators, policymakers and researchers are needed to better understand the way they interact with the political decisions made in peace processes. In response to this challenge, Govinda Clayton, Simon J. A. Mason, Valerie Sticher and Claudia Wiehler answer a number of questions regarding ceasefires, including 1) what they are; 2) their role; 3) why they fail, and 4) what the future may hold.chevron_right

The supply of essential goods and services in modern societies has become more volatile due to the globalization of the flow of goods. In this article, Andrin Hauri explains how in Switzerland, enterprises and the state cooperate on national economic supply to ensure the provision of vital commodities and services in times of crises. He also outlines that changes are required if this system is to continue function as it should in the future.chevron_right

The edition of the RAD addresses indigenous peoples in Russia. First, Arbahan Magomedov analyzes the growing assertiveness of indigenous peoples in the context of the accelerated industrial development of the Arctic. At the center of the study is the political rise of the “Voice of the Tundra” protest community and its leader Eiko Serotetto. Secondly, Vera Kuklina discusses the impact of reindustrialization on remote regions and their local communities through the example of the Evenki community in the Kazachinsko-Lenskii raion of Irkutsk Oblast.chevron_right

In this report, Júlia Palik looks at the 59 ceasefires in Yemen between 1989 and 2018. Key insights include 1) that 12 of the ceasefires were related to the conflict over territory between the Government of Yemen and the Democratic Republic of Yemen; 2) 29 of the ceasefires related to conflicts over government; 3) 18 ceasefires were between non-state actors; 4) 28 ceasefires related to different peace processes; and 4) 42 ceasefires involved mediators, with the most frequent being Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the US, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the UN.chevron_right

Jeronim Perović and Benno Zogg write that Russia and China are celebrating their “strategic partnership”, and have been vastly expanding their cooperation since 2014. Our authors outline that economic and geopolitical considerations underpin this close relationship. Further, while the relationship has its limitations, Russia and China appear willing to overlook potential areas of tension in the mid-term, including in Central Asia where the two powers’ divergent aspirations come to the fore.chevron_right

In this study, Sean Kane analyzes existing empirical research on the relationship between the content of negotiated civil war peace agreements and the subsequent duration of peace. More specifically, he focuses upon quantitative studies that apply statistical techniques to examine databases containing decades of civil war peace agreements. Kane’s review reveals several trends he believes could be useful for mediators. For example, he finds that the literature is mostly consistent in not finding a statistically significant between an agreement’s content and peace duration when it comes to political power sharing provisions.chevron_right

The public debate over the military use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) mainly revolves around autonomous weapons systems. Looking beyond the specific ethical and political considerations associated with this issue, Niklas Masuhr here examines questions relating to the organizational, technical, and functional integration of AI-enabled systems that determine the balance between potential benefits and risks.chevron_right

Influence operations are nothing new, but the dawn of the information age has seen such activities migrate towards cyberspace. In this publication, Sean Cordey addresses this development by looking at the concept and use of cyber influence operations (CIO), including a comparative analysis of American and Russian CIOs. His findings include 1) that discussion and definition around CIOs still lack coherence and overlaps with other concepts; 2) cyberspace has opened up the potential use of influence operations to everyone; and 3) that a state’s CIO toolbox is dependent on context and objectives.chevron_right

In this volume, Sean Cordey et al. examine the cybersecurity policies and architecture of Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Singapore and the United Kingdom. By doing so, they shed light on how cyberdefense is embedded in these states’ cybersecurity postures. The authors find that these countries’ approaches have notable differences, including in their understanding of cybersecurity. However, the text also highlights common trends, including a move toward civilian leadership and oversight as well as the centralization of control and implementation responsibilities for cybersecurity and cyberdefense.chevron_right

This edition of the RAD addresses Russia’s regional elections of 8 September 2019. First, Yana Gorokhovskaia looks at how the usually predictable regional elections sparked a conflict over which actors are allowed to participate in organized politics in Russia and which are not. Second, Jan Matti Dollbaum analyzes opposition politician Alexey Navalny’s strategy of “smart voting”, which attempts to concentrate all protest votes on the most promising oppositional candidate in any single-member district.chevron_right

In this report, Claudia Wiehler looks at the 31 ceasefires in Burundi between 1989 and 2017. Key insights include 1) that all of these ceasefires related to conflict over the political system, the replacement of the central government or the change of its composition; 2) 27 ceasefires were related to the peace process, 9 ceasefires were declared unilaterally, 18 were bilateral, and 4 multilateral; 3) 20 of the 31 ceasefires involved external mediators, and 4) fragmentation among non-state armed groups resulted in several phases of ceasefire negotiations and separate negotiated settlements.chevron_right

Benno Zogg contends that Kazakhstan is a linchpin for trade and transport links on the Eurasian continent – for China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) and beyond – due to its location, vast landmass and energy reserves. It is both the object and the subject of Chinese, Russian and Western geopolitical interests. Zogg also argues that the Kazakhstani case shows that the shape and success of the BRI largely depend on internal factors in the country rather than external influences.chevron_right

In 2018, Switzerland released its second national cybersecurity strategy. In this publication, Marie Baezner and Sean Cordey put this approach into perspective by comparing the strategies, policies and governmental structures of Germany, Finland, France, Israel, Italy and the Netherlands. In so doing, Baezner and Cordey identify eight challenges states face when developing, implementing and maintaining their cybersecurity strategies that relate to 1) integrating cybersecurity goals into broader security frameworks; 2) coordination; 3) international cooperation; 4) crisis management; 5) situation analysis; 6) education, information and capacity building; 7) public-private partnerships, and 8) legislation.chevron_right

In this publication, Stefan Soesanto looks at how US cyber defense strategy has evolved since 1988. To do so, Soesanto largely uses a deterrence-focused approach, rather than one driven by the intelligence community, legal sentiments, or private sector concerns. He finds that at its core, the evolution of US defense strategy in cyberspace follows a clear trajectory: It is incident driven, riddled with experimentation, and marked by a number of uncertain success stories in between.chevron_right

Jack Thompson writes that, historically, the United States has been wary of initiatives designed to bolster Europe’s strategic autonomy. Further, even now, the Trump administration is working to undermine it. Yet in the long run, European strategic autonomy could form an indispensable component of a constructive transatlantic relationship.chevron_right