Publications

This brief argues that the extremist attack in Dhaka, Bangladesh on 1 July 2016 was an “inflection point” in the country’s battle against terrorism. To support this thesis, the text’s author 1) analyzes the rise of violent extremism in the country; 2) considers different ways to stem the radicalization and recruitment of the local population; and...chevron_right

This report 1) analyzes the factors that led to the rekindling of violence in Nagorno-Karabakh in April 2016, and 2) highlights the opportunities that have subsequently arisen for either a comprehensive peace settlement or added confidence and security building measures.chevron_right

While Sri Lankans are excited that President Maithripala Sirisena met the world’s leaders during the G7 Summit in May 2016, doubts have also arisen over why he was invited to participate. Was it an attempt to...chevron_right

This paper reviews the changes currently underway in Brazil's oil and gas sector, which will lead to greater opportunities for exploration and production, improved distribution and logistics capabilities, and more robust power grids. The text's author closes his analysis by recommending additional ways that the country's energy sector might seize this moment in history and prosper.chevron_right

This report examines the threat posed by a resurgent Russia to NATO’s northeast region. More specifically, the text’s authors 1) consider what impact a bellicose Russia could have on Poland’s security, and...chevron_right

Since the 1990s, a number of separatist movements and conflicts have obscured the borders of former Soviet states and created quasi-independent territories that are now under Russian influence or control. This report examines...chevron_right

Given an increasingly assertive Russia and the large number of migrants and refugees crossing the Mediterranean, this paper argues that NATO needs to put greater emphasis on maritime security. To aid the process, the text’s authors spell out the capabilities, resources, and policies an updated maritime strategy should include.chevron_right

This brief highlights the problems that envelop Bahrain. They include 1) the Bahraini government's harsh treatment of Shiite groups, which continue to aggravate sectarian tensions...chevron_right

This report examines the roles unmanned maritime vehicles (UMVs) might play in 1) enhancing Australia’s ability to monitor its vast territorial waters, and 2) making the risk strategies of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) and the Australian Border Force (ABF) more effective. The text’s authors also...chevron_right

This paper explores how traditional deterrence frameworks might be applied to cyberspace, which is a thornier problem than one might think. For example, punishment-based deterrence is unlikely to work in the cyber realm and will most like lead to a “credibility-stability paradox.” To help address domain-specific problems such as this, here are Liam Nevill and Zoe Hawkins’ recommendations.chevron_right

This report argues that Australia’s existing methods for gathering and disseminating criminal intelligence overseas are suboptimal. To resolve the problem, Canberra needs to...chevron_right

This paper argues that the regime of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is stuck between a rock and a hard place. In the first case, the country’s current economic crisis is depriving the government of the financial and economic resources it needs to...chevron_right

If Donbas becomes a de facto state, both Ukraine and the West will face a difficult dilemma. It would be in the latter’s interests to promote democracy in the breakaway region, but adopting such a policy would also make Donbas’ reintegration into Ukraine less likely.chevron_right

In this paper, Raymond Zilinskas explores the Soviet Union’s pursuit of a dual-phased biological warfare (BW) program known as Biopreparat. Among other things, Zilinskas describe the how and why of the Cold War program and speculates on whether the Putin administration might start a third generation BW effort in the future.chevron_right

This paper looks back at the series of violent clashes that rocked Kyrgyzstan in 2010. It specifically argues that the events that occurred then should not to be viewed in isolation but should be set within a wider internal and external context. To substantiate his case, the text’s author 1) reviews the socio-economic context within Kyrgyzstan prior to 2010, including the divisions that affected the state since its independence; 2) analyzes the long-term geopolitical trends that led up to the violence; 3) examines the sequence of events in 2010, the subsequent responses of external actors, and the damage that occurred; and 4) assesses post-conflict trends in today's Kyrgyzstan and the impact they're having on the country.chevron_right