Publications

This text argues that after initially flirting with the idea of expanding its bilateral ties with Taiwan, the Trump administration has seemingly returned to ‘normalcy’, which in this case means leaving Taiwan more vulnerable to increased Chinese pressures.chevron_right

Japan does indeed have five possible futures, argues this brief. Depending on circumstances and some luck, the country might 1) remain a “world beater”; 2) act as a regional leader; 3) become Swiss – i.e., be in Asia, but not of Asia; 4) de-evolve into...chevron_right

While reports released by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have identified human error as a key contributors to the Fukushima disaster, this commentary confirms that East Asian states have failed to address this problem effectively. In response, organizations...chevron_right

This study takes a broad look at the US’s defense strategy in the Middle East. It specifically analyzes 1) the history of Washington’s involvement in what remains a strategically important region; 2) the security threat posed by...chevron_right

This paper analyzes the growing divergence between and within mature and emergent economies, with a specific focus on the world’s increasingly stressed, if not outright disenfranchised, middle classes. The text ultimately argues that inclusive growth is possible provided...chevron_right

This paper examines how NATO member states might both reinvigorate the Alliance and defuse its current financial quarrels. One option, at least for the US, would be to request a reformulation of the NATO charter that would align the defense burden of...chevron_right

This report looks at the major executive decisions made by Uzbekistan’s new president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, during his first 100 days in office. Given Mirziyoyev’s struggles with the domestic economy, unpredictable neighbors, and...chevron_right

This bulletin considers how lingering disagreements over Syria’s future may thwart improved US-Turkish relations, despite both countries’ desire to do so. A lack of cooperation or compromise could, of course, further strengthen...chevron_right

This paper discusses the tactics used by genocide deniers and the critical role archives play in the attempts to either find or obfuscate the truth about past exterminations. To illustrate the latter point, the text looks at...chevron_right

This piece analyses the ongoing economic recession in Belarus, which is attributable to an outdated economic model (the state still controls large-scale heavy industry) and falling profits from its oil sector. Absent needed reforms...chevron_right

Why have anti-globalization and anti-establishment movements proliferated in advanced democracies? This analysis highlights five possibilities, which include a spike in xenophobia; the economic decline of the middle classes; a growing...chevron_right

This brief traces the diminishing power of the so-called the Islamic State (IS), specifically over the last two years. However, less money, moral and recruits doesn’t mean the terrorist group will disappear. It could revert back to being...chevron_right

This ICG report argues that Hizbollah has achieved its core aim of preserving the Assad regime in Syria. Yet with no clear exit strategy in place, the Lebanese Party of God faces ever greater costs unless it can...chevron_right

This piece discusses North Korea’s command and control (C2) capabilities, particularly in the case of preventing the accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons. As the text’s author sees it, it’s unlikely that Pyongyang has...chevron_right

As the German public’s reaction towards the mass-migration crisis continues to chip away at the CDU’s popularity, this paper examines how Angela Merkel has adjusted her party’s immigration policies. The prime minister’s revised approach calls for...chevron_right