Publications

This publication analyzes drivers of displacement in Africa and the security threats these population movements pose to the continent. Key insights include 1) that the primary drivers of forced displa...chevron_right

This publication contends that the Chinese party-state engages in data collection on a massive scale as a means of generating information to enhance state security, as well as the Chinese Communist Pa...chevron_right

This publication reflects on how political commentary and media reporting on China’s influence and interference operations in Australia could adversely affect Chinese-Australian communities. It does s...chevron_right

This publication reflects on challenges in designing resilient energy systems within the parameters of new and emerging technologies. More specifically, it presents four young engineers’ thoughts on i...chevron_right

What is the continuing utility to America’s allies of extended nuclear deterrence? What are the key concerns regarding the use and non-use of nuclear weapons? Where is the risk of nuclear proliferatio...chevron_right

In this report, Júlia Palik looks at the 59 ceasefires in Yemen between 1989 and 2018. Key insights include 1) that 12 of the ceasefires were related to the conflict over territory between the Government of Yemen and the Democratic Republic of Yemen; 2) 29 of the ceasefires related to conflicts over government; 3) 18 ceasefires were between non-state actors; 4) 28 ceasefires related to different peace processes; and 4) 42 ceasefires involved mediators, with the most frequent being Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the US, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the UN.chevron_right

Jeronim Perović and Benno Zogg write that Russia and China are celebrating their “strategic partnership”, and have been vastly expanding their cooperation since 2014. Our authors outline that economic and geopolitical considerations underpin this close relationship. Further, while the relationship has its limitations, Russia and China appear willing to overlook potential areas of tension in the mid-term, including in Central Asia where the two powers’ divergent aspirations come to the fore.chevron_right

In this study, Sean Kane analyzes existing empirical research on the relationship between the content of negotiated civil war peace agreements and the subsequent duration of peace. More specifically, he focuses upon quantitative studies that apply statistical techniques to examine databases containing decades of civil war peace agreements. Kane’s review reveals several trends he believes could be useful for mediators. For example, he finds that the literature is mostly consistent in not finding a statistically significant between an agreement’s content and peace duration when it comes to political power sharing provisions.chevron_right

The public debate over the military use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) mainly revolves around autonomous weapons systems. Looking beyond the specific ethical and political considerations associated with this issue, Niklas Masuhr here examines questions relating to the organizational, technical, and functional integration of AI-enabled systems that determine the balance between potential benefits and risks.chevron_right

Influence operations are nothing new, but the dawn of the information age has seen such activities migrate towards cyberspace. In this publication, Sean Cordey addresses this development by looking at the concept and use of cyber influence operations (CIO), including a comparative analysis of American and Russian CIOs. His findings include 1) that discussion and definition around CIOs still lack coherence and overlaps with other concepts; 2) cyberspace has opened up the potential use of influence operations to everyone; and 3) that a state’s CIO toolbox is dependent on context and objectives.chevron_right

In this volume, Sean Cordey et al. examine the cybersecurity policies and architecture of Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Singapore and the United Kingdom. By doing so, they shed light on how cyberdefense is embedded in these states’ cybersecurity postures. The authors find that these countries’ approaches have notable differences, including in their understanding of cybersecurity. However, the text also highlights common trends, including a move toward civilian leadership and oversight as well as the centralization of control and implementation responsibilities for cybersecurity and cyberdefense.chevron_right

The articles of this edition of the CTC Sentinel focus on 1) the Russian military campaign in Syria; 2) what lessons can be learned from personnel records collected by the so-called Islamic State (IS)...chevron_right

Over the last decade, cyber incidents have become more expensive, disruptive and political. In this article, Myriam Dunn Cavelty and Andreas Wenger provide a historical overview of the academic literature that has accompanied this development. More specifically, they outline how technological possibilities, political choices and scientific practices have shaped cybersecurity politics and related research. They also identify empirical trends and thematic clusters in academic literature on the topic before discussing what the future may hold.chevron_right

Florian Egloff argues that public attributions of cyber incidents display a skewed version of cyber conflict. This is because the government and industry actors involved are often driven by political and commercial interests as well as legal constraints. In addition, public attribution of cyber incidents takes place in a heavily contested and information poor environment, creating opportunities for actors to promote their narrative on who is responsible for incidents. To address these concerns, Egloff argues that there is an increasing need for academic interventions in this area.chevron_right

This publication contends that human trafficking is not only a gross violation of human rights – it can also fuel conflict, drive displacement, and undercut the ability of international institutions t...chevron_right