Publications

Despite various efforts at reconciliation, the road to a viable settlement between Serbia and Kosovo remains long. But without normalizing relations, neither Kosovo nor Serbia is likely to achieve its...chevron_right

Connectivity and disruption are key elements in analysing the impact of the Russian large-​scale war against Ukraine on the South Caucasus. Laurence Broers analyses the simplified, securitised and conservative thinking about connectivity in the South Caucasus. For Katja Kalkschmied, China’s interest in the Trans-​Caspian International Transport Route has increased. Vali Kaleji argues that the security balance in the South Caucasus has shifted away from Iran. With a focus on Armenia and Azerbaijan, Stefan Meister argues that there is an ongoing reshuffle of the regional security balance and geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus.chevron_right

Die Jahresstudie «Sicherheit», die von der Militärakademie an der ETH Zürich und dem CSS jeweils gemeinsam publiziert wird, dient der Ermittlung langfristiger Trends in der aussen-​​, sicherheits-​​ und verteidigungspolitischen Meinungsbildung in der Schweiz. 2023 blicken Schweizerinnen und Schweizer signifikant weniger optimistisch in die Zukunft und obwohl das Neutralitätsprinzip weniger stark befürwortet wird, erhält es weiterhin hohen Zuspruch. Aussenpolitisch zeigt sich die Schweizer Stimmbevölkerung öffnungs-​ und kooperationsbereiter als in Vorjahren. Gegeüber der Vorjahresstudie wollen Schweizerinnen und Schweizer, dass die Verteidigungsfähigkeit der Armee gestärkt wird. Unverändert bleiben die Einstellungen bezüglich der Schweizer Sanktionen gegenüber Russland. Erstmals wurde nach den drei grössten Bedrohungen der Schweiz gefragt. Die Daten der Studie «Sicherheit 2023» wurden zwischen dem 3. und 20. Januar 2023 erhoben.chevron_right

This issue of the RAD examines various issues connected to the Russian regions. In the first article Irina Busygina and Mikhail Filippov examine the situation confronting Russian governors more than one year after the beginning of Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine. The second article by Jean-​François Ratelle looks at the role of fighters from the North Caucasus in Ukraine and the likely impact these fighters will have in their home region.chevron_right

In this issue of the RAD eight Russia scholars with different backgrounds provide shorter comments on key areas of Russia’s future development. Taken together, the contributions cover Russia’s political regime, society and public opinion as well as the impact of sanctions and Russia’s role in international politics. Several contributions highlight the huge uncertainty involved in any assessments of Russia’s future. Accordingly, the authors do not make predictions but outline possible trends.chevron_right

In recent years, China has emerged as a major player in space exploration. With milestones such as the successful landing of a Chinese rover on the far side of the moon and the completion of its own s...chevron_right

NATO has designated cyberspace as a domain of warfare and recognized that an adversarial cyber campaign could trigger the Alliance’s collective defense mechanism under Article 5. Given the complexitie...chevron_right

Strategic Trends 2023 offers a concise analysis of major developments in world affairs, with a primary focus on international security. In the first chapter, Brian G. Carlson discusses the challenges to world order that China and Russia pose, both separately and through their partnership. In the second chapter, Sophie-​Charlotte Fischer analyzes the US quest to deny China access to critical technology and know-​how through allied export controls. In the third chapter, Névine Schepers discusses how a worsening global security environment and rising nuclear threats have brought to the forefront the crucial role played by US alliance networks in both Europe and Asia, the extended deterrence arrangements on which they rely and the increasing interconnectedness between both regions. In the final chapter, Boas Lieberherr analyzes India’s foreign policy and argues that New Delhi seeks to avoid overdependence on any country while leveraging diverse partnerships in a quest for security and status as an emerging major power.chevron_right

Rapidly developing life sciences produce many exciting and useful innovations, for example in the fight against disease. However, with such powerful advancements also comes the possibility of military misuse. There is therefore an urgent need to strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention. The results of the Ninth Review Conference of this Convention may make this possible.chevron_right

The UN’s counterterrorism framework and its accompanying institutional architecture have grown rapidly since the attacks on 11 September 2001. While UN counterterrorism has made important contribution...chevron_right

This edition of the MSN Discussion Points aims to explore cooperation between diplomatic and mediation actors who are involved in peace processes and to give recommendations to increase the effectiveness of this cooperation. The paper draws on a perception study that was conducted by Clingendael Academy in 2020 and 2021 on third-​party cooperation. The paper further draws on discussions that took place during the annual Mediation Support Network (MSN) meeting in the Hague in spring 2022. Mediation support experts exchanged perspectives and discussed challenges and opportunities in cooperation between diplomats, mediators, and mediation support organizations.chevron_right

The supply chain for rare earths needed for green technologies is dominated by China. To mitigate supply risks, European countries must invest in domestic mining, processing, and recycling capacities as well as international cooperation, instead of deepening existing dependencies on authoritarian countries.chevron_right

The articles in this issue of the RAD explore transformations of the Russian Studies field. Some of these were already under way before Russia’s full-​scale invasion of Ukraine but have been accelerated by the war and its impact on the field. The approaches identified here include the need for a thicker conceptualization of Russia that gives the floor to more interpretative methods and seeks to refine existing approaches; an expansion of the tools used to study Russia, including digital techniques and open-​source data; and the need for horizontal cooperation platforms to deal with the new Iron Curtain.chevron_right

Wargaming can be a powerful tool for educating soldiers, developing military doctrine, and determining future investment strategies. However, wargaming also has real limitations: if misapplied, wargaming can reinforce bad assumptions and be used to justify unrealistic or faulty battle plans.chevron_right

This issue focuses on the methodological challenges of wartime polling. Denis Volkov engages with criticisms of Levada surveys. Bryn Rosenfeld answers four questions about wartime surveys. Jeremy Morris challenges the very existence of public opinion. Heiko Pleines introduces Discuss Data’s collection of open-​access raw opinion data. Anna Biriukova discusses wartime polling by Aleksei Navalny’s Anti-​Corruption Foundation. Elena Koneva and Alexander Chilingaryan highlight how the sociology of war is crucial for policymakers. Aleksei Minialo reflects on activist polling. Finally, Emil Kamalov, Ivetta Sergeeva, Margarita Zavadskaya, and Veronica Kostenko discuss their original panel survey data of the most recent wave of emigration.chevron_right