Publication
Jun 2007
This paper shows that inflation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. The authors argue that OECD countries share a common factor that accounts for nearly 70 percent of their variance and that this is not only associated to the trend components of inflation but also to fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. They develop a model that consistently beats the previous benchmarks used to forecast inflation 1 to 8 quarters ahead across samples and countries.
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English (PDF, 41 pages, 273 KB) |
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Author | Matteo Ciccarelli, Benoît Mojon |
Series | Kiel Institute Working Papers |
Issue | 1337 |
Publisher | Kiel Institute for the World Economy |
Copyright | © 2007 Kiel Institute for the World Economy |