Publication

In the short run, China’s rise as a major global trade player is already creating winners and losers in Latin America and the Caribbean, thus its perception of threat or opportunity. On the winning side, the economies of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela with strong natural resources exporting sector based on agricultural products, minerals and petroleum. On the losing side, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean whose exporting economies are highly integrated into North America’s industrial production chain. The question is whether Sino-Latin American relations will flourish or turn into rivalry and commercial conflict. Under different assumption- scenarios, relations between the Asian giant and Brazil/MERCOSUR have the best chance to thrive and be less conflictive in the near future.