Publication

This Memo describes the Democratic Republic of the Congo's near-term vulnerability to convulsive electoral violence and renewed rebellion on its periphery. The author argues that the most prudent steps the US can take to reduce the likelihood of these contingencies are to increase coordinated international pressure on President Joseph Kabila not to compromise the legitimacy of the electoral process and to support a more robust UN presence during the electoral period. He recommends greater electoral oversight for the purpose of more effectively conditioning international support to the Congolese government and utilizing both incentives and increasingly stiff economic and diplomatic penalties in the event of destabilizing regime behavior.