Publication

While a number of studies have explored the future of nuclear power under various circumstances, the purpose of this paper is to consider game-changing events for nuclear energy. The authors take “the game” to be the current no-surprise scenario for the next fifty years: that is, a slow and uneven growth in nuclear power worldwide. Growth will be very strong in China and India, significant in Japan, South Korea, and Russia, and sluggish in the United States and Western Europe, where current plans call for replacing, but not significantly expanding, the existing large fleets. This course of events will be the result of planned investments and government decisions, coupled with anticipated changes implemented over known horizons.