Publication

This paper assesses the various scenarios of republican presidential succession in the Maghreb region and explores the sources of instability these prospective leadership changes may bring about. Which are the mechanisms that engineered successions typically follow? Who are the prospective new leaders, what are their chances of obtaining and sustaining power, and what impact might their rule have on the region’s fragile power balance? And finally: which are the main risk factors for instability deriving from the wave of successions, and how can the West contribute to reducing these risks?