Publication

In this policy brief, the author contends that the unrest in Bahrain in 2011 is deep-rooted and should be viewed in a local, domestic context that dates back to the “Manama Spring” of the 1990s. In the Gulf, where politics is largely dominated by tribes and oil, the removal of the Al Khalifah family is nigh on impossible, and even more so after the Saudi Arabian military intervention in the country. The risk that major unrest will spill over into other Gulf Cooperation Council countries from Bahrain is still small – but nevertheless possible. On the other hand, the Bahraini model could have a more subtle, long-term influence over the region.