Publication

The increasing uncertainty in the Persian Gulf, strengthened by the possibility of the imposition of further sanctions by the EU against Iran, adversely affects the global oil price. The situation in the region was aggravated by the announcement of Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. That could bring increased political and economic costs for the parties to a potential conflict. Iran’s strategic calculations are not transparent, so it is important to separate the effects of sanctions from the military crisis on the oil markets.