Publication

This monograph examines what effect the growing missile threat will have on US overseas military bases. The paper addresses this problem at three levels. First, it considers the balance of capabilities, covering the strategic reasons and proliferation environment that are driving states to acquire missiles, the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the offensive threat, and defenses available to the US Second, it assesses the missile threat at the strategic level. The analysis attempts to estimate the effectiveness of deterrence as a strategy through which the US will seek to prevent attacks on its overseas bases. And third, it analyzes the threat at a political level. The idea is that missiles may be used to coerce US leaders to withdraw or fail to use overseas forces, or to coerce host nations into denying access to the US military. The author draws these analyses together and concludes that missile threats will pose new and complex risks to overseas basing reliability at all three levels.