Publication

This paper compares and contrasts the various uprisings of the Arab Spring and considers the possible outcomes in each case. The legitimacy of ruling regimes, the effect of socio-religous divisions and the role of the region's militaries are considered. Separately, the prospects of political Islam and violent jihad are considered. Finally, the immediate and short-term outlook for the economies in the region, which will have such an impact on the outcome of the revolutions, is discussed.