Publication

The aim of this note is to draw a generic overview of the complex political and social situation in Yemen, highlighting the possibility of an escalation of violence to a civil war. Yemen’s history as a unified state is short and the government’s control of national territory has generally been tenuous. Regional and tribal rebellions, some allegedly with the involvement of members of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, are gaining in strength. According to the author, given the forces that are positioning themselves to compete for power, and Yemen’s very weak democratic culture and divided polity, the likelihood that the demands of pro-democracy demonstrators will be fulfilled seems small.